Comex Gold Futures

I've stipulated that before the futures are deemed likely to bolt for a Hidden Pivot rally target at 1154.30 they must first close for two consecutive days above an important midpoint resistance at 1126.00.  Yesterday's finish fulfilled half the requirement, but the futures will need to finish the week firm-to-higher to set the bullish scenario irreversibly in motion. There wasn't much happening at 6:30 p.m. EST to provide a low-risk handhold for trend surfers, although the pattern shown in the chart is probably worth a three-tick stop-loss for speculative bids placed at 1123.70. _______ UPDATE (11:35 p.m.):  The futures took a $1.80 bounce from a tick above our bid, turning the recommendation to dross.  Somewhat lower prices ensued, suggesting there was little urgency tonight on the buy side.

The 1154.30 target given here earlier can serve as a minimum upside target for the near term although the very minor trend is bearish as of 9:20 p.m. EST.  That's nothing a two-day close above 1126.00 wouldn't cure, but until that happens we shouldn't jump to conclusions.  In the meantime, night owls can try bottom-fishing with an 1117.60  bid.  The provenance of that Hidden Pivot is shown in the chart. _______ UPDATE (3:47 p.m. EST):  The futures never quite got down to our bid, rallying instead from an 1118.20 low.  The day-session close above 1126.00 is a positive sign, as noted. 

Because it took two tries to push past the 1128.30 peak recorded on March 10, we should temper our bullishness until there's more evidence.  That said, the futures are nonetheless masticating an 1126.00 midpoint resistance that I noted earlier in the chat room, even if they have not yet left it behind.  Once this occurs, the prospect of a run-up to exactly 1154.30 seems like a safe bet.  A camouflaged opportunity to get long could crop up via a pullback from somewhere between the peaks that were recorded on the way down between March 3-7.  All of the details noted herein are shown in the accompanying chart.

Stairstepping their way lower for nearly two weeks, the futures have noticeably failed to generate even an ounce of fear. A print today at 1128.30 would show bears who's boss, but failing that, look for more timid selling down to as low as 1088.00, where structural support from some prior lows exists.  A 1095.50 downside target remains viable, and you can try bottom-fishing there with a stop-loss as tight as 1094.90. 

Nothing has altered that 1095.50 downside target,  including the nasty, $18 head-fake that followed Thursday's lows. You can bottom-fish with a 1094.70 stop-loss, but if it's hit, the secondary target at 1092.00 flagged here Friday will be in play.  You could bottom-fish that Hidden Pivot as well with a 1092.20 bid, stop 1090.80. The earlier in the session the second target is hit, the more likely it is to produce a tradable low.  Alternatively, the futures would need to pop today to at least 1113.40 to turn the lowly five-minute chart bullish.

Gold followed our script closely yesterday, peaking overnight a dime from a Hidden Pivot midpoint that had been flagged as a place to get short, then dropping to marquee support at 1100. The 1095.50 correction target is still valid in theory, but opportunity would favor bulls on a print exceeding  1114.10.  The chart shows the importance of this number, and although a move above it would compromise any camouflage we might be looking for, the resulting ABC pattern could yield a very low-risk entry to those who are nimble enough to act on a fleeting B-C pullback. _______ UPDATE (10:04 a.m. EST):  An entry opportunity precisely like the one shown opened up in the middle of the night. The futures popped to 1114.20, exceeding the look-to-the-left peak by a tick, then pulled back for 15 minutes to form a point 'C'  low at 1112.70. Entry was at 1113.40 for an 1115.40 target, but you could have ridden a larger, bullish pattern to the eventual top near 1119.00. The futures dove thereafter, turning the rally into yet one more gratuitous hump.  Gold's next big move will be up, but it quite evidently isn't ready to fly yet. The 1095.50  correction target is still valid, but there is now another at 1092.00 that corresponds to a Hidden Pivot midpoint at 1105.70 providing support at this moment.

The pattern shown in the chart is the one that caught my eye during yesterday's tutorial session. It has since developed and is even more compelling with respect to the opportunity it may present for bottom-fishing. This should be done at 1095.50, two ticks above the Hidden Pivot target shown, with a stop-loss at 1094.20. Pivoteers could also attempt entry via camouflage if and when the downtrend closely approaches the target.  Night owls intent on scalping should consider 1111.80 as a place to get short with a tight stop-loss. That is the sibling midpoint of the 1095.50 target, and it should now act as resistance. _______ UPDATE (10:25 a.m. EST):  The events of the day have unfolded so far as foreseen.  The overnight high was 1111.70, a dime from where shorts were advised, and the futures have since fallen as low as 1100.50.  The rally to the C-D midpoint has confirmed the 1095.50 target. 

The futures passed up a chance to savage bulls yesterday, bouncing back sharply after having failed to achieve the target of a minor downtrend. That's bullish as far as it goes, but a decisive confirmation today seems mildly unlikely, since it would require a print exceeding 1148.00.  In the meantime, I've sketched out a price pattern that would yield an enticing buy at a midpoint support. Specific numbers would be premature t this point, since the futures were groping for a point 'C' high when we went to press around 1 a.m. EST.

By focusing on a key resistance at 1144.50 we were able to remain disinterested as gold appeared to develop thrust for a breakout.  A two-day close above that Hidden Pivot will all but clinch a $100 surge to 1244.50 as far as I'm concerned, but we should continue to guard against taking even a single careless step ahead of the evidence.  And now, assuming the bull is still dominant, we should expect abc downtrends to fall shy of their 'd' targets.  I've sketched once such pattern that would be tradable, although there are no guarantees that things will play out as the chart predicts.  Please note that I am not using the over-the-falls 'a' as a high, mainly because it looked too obvious, but also because the pattern drawn from the highest 'a' is so unintuitive while still meeting our criteria. _______ UPDATE (11:59 a.m. EST): Well, the downtrend so far has played out almost precisely from the over-the-falls high at 1136.60. It created an intraday low within less than a dollar of its 1107.50 target and has now rallied back to within spitting distance of the pattern's 1116.50 midpoint. If and when the  low is taken out, the 1102.90 target derived from the higher point 'A'  (i.e., the one I'd drawn) will be in play.  It can be bottom-fished with a stop-loss as tight as $1.00.