E-Mini S&P

I'd say odds are slim to none that the futures will avoid falling to the 1364.50 target disseminated via yesterday's update. This could spell opportunity for us, however, since, as I made clear during yesterday's tutorial session, the bounce from the 1384.00 will be shortable near the p midpoint -- now resistance -- at 1399.25.  If and when it's reached, I'll suggest initiating the trade using camouflage on perhaps the one- or three-minute chart. ______ UPDATE (2:41 p.m. EST):  This one was a dead-center bullseye, since the high of the bounce from Wednesday's 1384.00 low was 1399.75.  Some chat-roomers reported having gotten short, so the value of the midpoint was not merely hypothetical. For your further guidance, I am establishing a tracking position of two contracts remaining from an original position of four. If you take profits on half of the initial four here, near 1380.00 it will yield an effective cost basis of 1418.00 for the two contracts that will remain. For now, tie them to an impulse-leg stop of hourly degree. This implies exiting on a rally that is unpaused between two 'external' peaks at, respectively, 1397.50 and 1399.75.

Today's chart shows at a glance where the bigger-picture pivots lie. There are three bullish patterns here, each with a p midpoint and D target shown in a different color. D's should be used to get short or to exit longs, while p's should be used to bottom-fish.  If it is the latter type of trade you are attempting, camouflage is strongly recommended. _______ UPDATE (November 7, 12:43 a.m. EST):  Since I am unable to imagine an Obama rally, I’ll be paying very close attention to the way in which the ostensibly bullish set-up described above plays out. The very first credible sign of trouble would come today on a  1409.50 print, since that would generate a bearish impulse leg on the hourly chart. ________ UPDATE (10:20 a.m.):  A 2.5% decine would bring the Dow down to 12913, about 35 points beneath the low created by today’s so-far 230-point fall.  Since I can scarcely imagine the stock market declining a measly 2.5% to discount the actual Death of America, I’ll continue to monitor my technical indicators closely, and to trust them over my gut instincts. FYI, the E-Mini S&Ps, currently trading near 1400.00, project to 1364.75 over the very short-term.  This implies a drop in the Dow of 500 points — twice the current amount.

We're limited to day-trading now, enthralled to the coin-flip randomness of each session's price action. Thursday's close was bullish just the same, since it vaulted an external peak at 1421.75 recorded last Friday. The fact that the futures have spent 12 hours since then doing absolutely nothing does not portend an ebullient breakout today, but it should at least put traders in a bullish frame of mind. If the futures push above 1433.00, it will raise the obvious challenge of a further push to mid-October supply centered near 1458.

Yesterday's burst of exuberance on the opening proved short-lived -- a reminder, perhaps, that the Keynesian boost the economy will receive from rebuilding what the hurricane destroyed will be heavily countered by a debt implosion that has finally begun to weigh on corporate earnings. The rally was nonetheless bullishly impulsive and will remain so as long as it doesn't sink beneath its starting point, Monday's 1393.00 low. Camouflageurs may find opportunity zooming down to the 3-minute chart once the p midpoint shown has been exceeded. _______UPDATE (10:45 a.m. EDT):  On the 3-minute chart, in pushing past the 1411.25 midpoint, the futures popped a nicely tradable pattern, A=1409.00 (9:33 a.m.), B=1413.75, C=1411.25. If you took the 1412.25 entry signal, take a 50% profit now, around 1422.50, and let me know in the chat room so that I can establish a tracking position for your further guidance.

Friday's tepid price action did nothing to alter a forecast that had called for a moderate decline to at least 1385.25, a Hidden Pivot target.  Moderate weakness was continuing Sunday night, but the decline was likely to be cut short by Wall Street's closure on Monday due to the hurricane. As noted in the chart -- the same one reproduced here on Friday -- the 1385.25 target is less important for trading purposes than for whatever we might speculate after it's hit.

The futures were getting hit mildly as of around 2 a.m. Eastern,  though not yet savaged.  The pattern shown suggests minimum downside over the near term to at least 1385.25, but merely observing the resilience of that Hidden Pivot will likely be more valuable to us than attempting to trade it (although that, too, should be easily possible via camouflage or a straight bid).

Notice that yesterday's selloff (see inset) has created a bearish impulse leg of daily-chart degree, since the structural low at 1414.50 that it breached, diminutive though it be, is a legitimate 'external' low.  Camouflageurs should look on the 5-minute chart for places to short an uptrending abcd, but officially we'll wait for a C-D downleg to develop so that we can get a read on sellers' fears at its p midpoint.

The ginned-up short-squeeze that ended yesterday's session was undeniably impulsive and may have created an avenue of opportunity for night owls.  The pattern is just lazy-ugly enough to appeal to no one -- no one but us, that is, especially if it generates the kind of single-bar 'C' low we relish. That'll likely be good enough to get point 'x' buyers to the 'p' midpoint, but you'll need to  make sure you take a partial profit there if it becomes available, since breakouts in the wee hours have been relatively rare recently. _______ UPDATE (11:11 a.m. EDT):  The futures sank without signaling any buying opportunities of the kind we look for.  They've traded as low today as 1402.00, but more downside to 1390.25, the nearest Hidden Pivot support, appears likely.

My omission of this trading vehicle from the touts section in recent days has been deliberate, since price action has been tediously unsuitable for our purposes.  And so it remains in the wake of Friday's probably gratuitous dive. We await (much) better opportunities, but you should stand aside for now.