E-Mini S&P

Friday's powerful rally peaked to-the-exact-tick at the 2743.25 target I'd proffered. With a 'top' of sorts in, is it now safe for bears to come out of hiding?  Hardly. The target would have made for an enticing short if it had been achieved earlier in the session. As things stand, however, shorting there on the closing bell would have been much riskier, since bears were left hanging on the ropes, presumably anxious about Sunday evening's opening. Assuming the futures continue to move higher -- as why should we not, since they've been moving higher for nearly nine years? -- we should keep the 2782.25 Hidden Pivot shown in mind as a minimum objective. This is the first time I've mentioned it, but it looks worthy of our attention, given the cluster of head-butts at the red line during the last two weeks of December. You can bid the futures mechanically at 2694.25, stop 2664.75, good through Tuesday, but be prepared to substitute a 'camouflage' entry at a higher level if the futures don't pull back. The chat room will be the best place to seek real-time guidance for this, so stay tuned or check 'Email Notifications' on your account dashboard if you care.

Buyers continue to shred their way past Hidden Pivot targets without pausing for a moment's breath. I will continue to proffer these benchmarks nonetheless because: 1) their steadfast bullishness can help permabears stay out of trouble; 2)  they can serve as minimum price objectives for bull trades; and 3) they can be shorted with stops as tight as 1.25 points. All of which you should consider in relation to my latest target: 2743.25. That is where the futures are headed at a minimum, although I can't guarantee the target will show decisive stopping power. If bulls chomp through it effortlessly, you should take it as yet another sign that significantly higher prices impend.

After screwing the pooch since December 18, the futures have yet to exceed by more than a single tick the 2698.00 Hidden Pivot resistance we'd used to stay on the right side of the trend.  I'd also recommended getting short there with a stop-loss as tight as 3.25 points. The pullback so far has been relatively shallow, suggesting bulls are unlikely to simply go away.  If they can keep the heat on bears for another day or two, look for the move to continue to at least 2710.50.  Anything above that would imply buyers are starting to feel their oats as the new year gets under way. _______ UPDATE (Jan 3, 9:04 p.m. EST): Much as I hate to see a good Hidden Pivot rally target go to waste, there is no getting around the fact that the 4-point overshoot of my 2710.50 resistance is bullish. I didn't explicitly advise getting short there because the futures have had such trouble selling off recently. But if the little s.o.b. moves above 2712.50 overnight, I'd cover any shorts you may have held at the closing bell.

The rally stalled at 2698.00, precisely where we had anticipated, but the shallow pullback that has occurred since suggests the futures are going higher.  Those who went short at the target as I'd advised can manage the risk as they see fit, but I would recommend a stop-loss that would preserve at least a small profit on the trade if it's hit.  The next leg up can be expected to produce an equally precise stall at the 2710.50 target shown. Get short a single contract with a 2710.25 offer, stop 2712.25, but you can step up the size to four contracts if you've made money on the way to the target. _______ UPDATE (Dec 19, 12:18 p.m. EST): After head-butting my 2698.00 target for two days but going no higher, ESH18 has dropped the 9.75 points needed to manage the risk 1:3. Take a partial profit here if you've been short. If and when bulls catch their breath, exceeding 2698.00, the 2710.25 target will be in play. A dip below 2674.25 would hint of trouble. _______ UPDATE (Dec 28, 5:53 p.m.): Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

Based on evidence that comes from a composite chart, we've been using 2690.25 as a possible place for the bull market to end. However, referencing the December contract, the futures have already topped via a thrust last week to 2658.50 that roundly exceeded the 2645.00 target shown. Is the 13.50-point overshoot sufficient for us to presume that another bull leg is likely? Ordinarily I'd say yes, especially given the clarity of the bullish pattern and the fact that buyers stalled precisely and very discernibly at p=2480.50 before blasting though it. But just to be cautious, we'll keep an open mind to the possibility that the S&Ps have made an important top, if not necessarily THE top. If this proves to have been the case, we should start to see downtrending abcd patterns exceed their 'd' targets immediately and in all time frames. Alternatively, if the December contract is about to head higher, it will close above 2650.25 for the next day or two, then blast off for a minimum 2690.25. (daily chart, A= 2567.75 on 11/20). _______ UPDATE (Dec 3, 9:47 p.m.): The bullish herd has gone loco tonight -- on a Sunday, no less -- pushing the futures to a so-far high at 2663.25. This negates the potential usefulness of everything I've written above save the 2690.25 target, which remains in play.

Friday's short squeeze to new record highs missed the 2455.50 target shown by 10 points, but the futures are still on course to hit it. In fact, they became a theoretical 'mechanical' buy, stop 2409.50, when they pulled back to the pink line, a 'secondary' Hidden Pivot. The trade opportunity is past, but the 'buy' signal is still in effect and can be interpolated via a 'camouflage' entry if you know how to set one up.  I'd suggesting using an ABC pattern on the three-minute chart to do so. As of Friday, however, an 'entry' signal had yet to trigger. The nearest 'external' peak that could be used for this purpose lies at 2433.00 (6/9 at 2:24 p.m).________ UPDATE (Jun 12, 11:23 p.m): Back away for now, since monitoring tedium like Monday's could put one in a death-like trance.  There is no change in my immediate outlook.

Wednesday's selling bottomed three ticks above the 2423.25 target where we'd intended to bottom-fish, denying us an opportunity to catch the 10-point bounce that followed. The bounce was technically unimpressive and inconsequential, but the day ended with a slightly bullish bias for the very near-term. Take a few steps back, however, and you can see a bigger picture (inset) that provides reason for caution. Specifically, last week's record high occurred almost precisely at the 2439.00 Hidden Pivot resistance shown. An upward reversal and stab through it would be very bullish, especially if it were to occur by week's end. However, for the time being we should presume that the futures will need a rest of at least 3-5 days before they can try to muscle their way past a target that took four months to reach. Yes, the recent peak could mark the start of The Big One. But given the fact that the bull has been charging hard for more than eight years, odds are against it.

Eight years-plus into a bull market, I hesitate to say I'm in love with the 2457.75 rally target shown in the chart. But as far as Hidden Pivots go, there's no denying it's a beauty. What this implies is that I consider it unlikely the uptrend will bulldoze its way past this 'hidden' resistance without a tradable pullback from perhaps within a point or two of it. You can attempt shorting there with the usual penny-ante stop-loss, but if you've been long at least part of the ride north, don't be afraid to step up your position size and widen the stop-loss to as much as three points. For purposes of getting long ahead of the prospective move, a 'mechanical' bid at p=2387.75, stop 2364.25, will suffice. However, I'd suggest converting any mechanical entry signal at p2=2422.75 into a 'camouflage' trigger that caps risk at no more than five ticks ($62) theoretical per contract. _______ UPDATE (Jun 6, 5:01 p.m. EDT): The day ended with a bearish impulse leg on the hourly chart. Night owls can use the 2423.25 target shown to bottom-fish with a stop-loss as tight as two ticks. If it's hit, look for more weakness on Wednesday.

A 2439.00 rally target that we'd been using for weeks came within three ticks of nailing Friday's top, but bears shouldn't get their hopes too high. For in fact, the subsequent pullback was too shallow to suggest buyers are the least bit tired, and unless North Korea starts a nuclear war over the weekend, we should expect the broad averages to continue doing what they've been doing for the last 87 months -- i.e., move relentlessly higher.  There's a minor Hidden Pivot resistance at 2440.75 that comes from a pattern gnarly enough to give it some stopping power, but if it is easily brushed aside we'll need to use a new pattern with a 2457.75 minimum target to keep from getting fooled. A proper pullback to the pink line (p2=2422.75) would generate a 'mechanical' buy signal in theory, but to further reduce risk, I'd suggest using this tactic only on a full retracement to the green line (2252.75), stop 2317.50.