E-Mini S&P

Three days of futile head-butting have left the futures bruised, winded and ready to fall.  My minimum downside objective for the very near term is 2160.25, a Hidden Pivot support associated with the pattern shown (see inset). If it gives way easily, that would set up a likely test of last week's low at 2141.50. Amidst the excruciating boredom the week has produced thus far, we should be prepared for a very un-boring Friday if the selling gains momentum into Thursday's close.

The stock market has been acting so punk lately that it's time to take a hard look at the quite bullish targets I've put out over the last couple of months. Most immediately, there's the 2313.50 bull-market benchmark shown. Is it still viable? In theory, yes, since the futures would need to fall a further 70 points to negate the point 'C' low of the pattern. In practice, however, the tired slog of the last two weeks is like that ominous cough in the second reel of a Hollywood melodrama.  Even Goldman Sachs is having second thoughts, warning investors to stay out of stocks for the next three months.  The trouble is, there are no investors in this market, only heedless speculators playing with funny money gifted them by the central bank. Do they even care whether U.S. corporate earnings have declined for four consecutive quarters? Not as far as we could tell -- at least until earlier this month, when the broad averages began a wretched limp sideways after a nearly parabolic rise. It still looks like a consolidation nonetheless, and the daily chart is in fact on a 'mechanical' buy signal with the pullback to the red line (see inset). We'll let the opportunity pass, however, since the canny dirtballs at Goldman may be more concerned than they are letting on. Perhaps we're just feeling down because Trevor Story, the Colorado Rockies' phenomenal rookie shortstop, injured his thumb and will be out for the rest of the season. The Rockies are our team, and with Story out of the lineup, their hopes of a wild-card berth may have gone down the tubes.  But putting baseball blues aside, it just feels like there's something really nasty lurking in the wings.  Maybe it has to do with Trump, whose mere

Subscribers who bought the pullback to the green line (i.e., 2159.31) as I'd explicitly advised here Wednesday night could have cashed a $700 winning ticket for an 11-hour hold. Strictly speaking, you'd still be long two contracts from an original four, shooting for the 2181.25 target shown. The stop-loss can be loosened to suit your style, since, presumably, you're playing with the house's money at this point. If the futures do NOT break out to end this deadly-dull week, that will make two consecutive weeks of mostly inside-day tedium. As the foregoing suggests, however, even the dullest markets are tradable. I haven't established a tracking position because no one mentioned the trade in the chat room, but in case you're interested, the same tactic can be applied if the futures push past the red line tonight, then hover above it for at least a few bars before coming back to it. Your stop-loss would be at 2161.75._______ UPDATE (August 1, 2:18 a.m. EDT): No reports? This trade was pretty straightforward and could have produced a profit of as much as $2500 so far for anyone who followed the simple instructions given above. Because no one mentioned the trade in the chat room, however, I haven't established a tracking position.  The original target is still valid, but look for double stopping power, since a lesser pattern projects to 2180.00 (30-minute, A=2157.50 on 7/29 at 10:30 a.m. EDT).

Yet another day of pooch-screwing has positioned the futures for a shot at the modest 2181.25 target shown. Notice that the pattern has been confirmed by a pullback precisely from the midpoint Hidden Pivot at 2166.63. This implies that a thrust to the target would encounter similarly precise resistance and pullback. Night owls can try getting long via a 'mechanical' entry on a pullback to the green line, but if the implied $375 stop-loss seems too rich, I'd suggest attempting a 'camouflage' entry on the one-minute chart or less.

The small threat posed by last Thursday's decline was negated by a weak rally to end the week. It positioned the futures to push higher, presumably toward the 2223.00 target shown. We have numerous bullish targets in play at the moment, but this one and the pattern from which it is derived promise to give us a precise handle on the move. The futures have already tripped a 'mechanical' buy signal at the green line, implying we should be looking for opportunities to get aboard in any way possible:  via camouflage, counterintuitive and/or mechanical entries. A decisive push past the red line is still needed to 'guarantee' the target, and the pattern itself would require a stall there to confirm it. It may take a week or two to reach the target, since Wall Street will need to shrug off rotten Q2 corporate earnings that have now declined for four straight quarters. Although this has been of scant concern to investors, it may take a week or two for them to return to their giddy ways -- and for short-covering bears who have powered the bull market from one record high to  the next to turn panicky again. _______ UPDATE (July 25, 7:10 p.m....July 26, 8:44 p.m.): Zzzzzz. No change.

Today's moderate selloff from a high that fell 1.75 points shy of a clear Hidden Pivot is a warning sign that must be heeded. The failure was subtle, to be sure, but it should encourage us to keep an open mind toward the possibility that an important top is in. We'll be better able to judge the odds once we've seen how the ABC downtrend in progress at Thursday's close plays out.  If the futures roll down overnight, exceeding their D target, that would confirm that the weakness is potentially serious. However, if the downtrend reverses from p or higher and the futures go on to exceed the 2168.00 peak (A), bears had better run for cover.  The foregoing is speculative, since the hypothetical pattern I've sketched has not yet created a point 'C' high. It can serve to guide you nonetheless, particularly if you are a night owl looking for an opportune level to bottom-fish or get short.

The 2171.75 target noted here earlier is all we have at the moment, and it will need to be hit or exceeded before we can move on to the next. If the target is easily exceeded, that would return our focus to a more important Hidden Pivot resistance at 2194.00 first broached here when the futures were trading nearly 70 points lower. If patience is not your strong suit, keep in mind that bull markets spend most of their time in trance-inducing tedium, scuddling sideways nearly 90% of the time. The remaining 10% of the time, they are in short-covering rallies, the only source of buying power sufficient to push stocks through supply to new levels. With no news to catalyze a squeeze right now, price action has been turgid. Just a little drivel from Ms. Yellen, however, and we should see the uptrend resume in earnest.  If so, you'll have the targets given above, along with some others noted here earlier, to guide you.

The 2194.00 target that I first featured here a while back is still on our radar and not too distant, even if three days of grueling chop have brought the futures no closer to it. Contemplate the chart (see inset) with a little imagination and an open mind and you could convince yourself that the S&Ps are basing for another bold leap higher. But it is just as easy to see them fixing to dive a hundred points for whatever reason. All of which argues against taking an aggressive stand right now, even if the payoff for being right could be substantial. Most immediately, focusing on the minor ABC trends at the rightmost edge of the chart, the next upthrust could be expected to hit 2171.75, a Hidden Pivot that would become an odds-on bet once the 'secondary pivot' at 2164.63 has been exceeded by more than a point. Alternatively, an unpaused drop exceeding 2139.50 to the downside would be warning of possible trouble.  As always, we'll take our forecasts one day at a time until the futures bolt higher, or lower.

Odds of a run-up to as high as 2313.50 shortened last week when the futures speared a 2147.50 'midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance' associated with the target (see inset). Although the breach amounted to a relatively moderate 20 points, it was sufficient to imply that the target, along with a secondary one at 2230.50, be taken seriously, especially by traders and investors skeptical that the bull market could have so much life remaining. If the target is achieved, it would equate to a Dow rally of about 1300 points. The potential silver lining for permabears is that the 2313.50 pivot is a major resistance that could conceivably put the kibosh on a bull market currently in its 89th month. Even if not, it still looks extremely likely to produce a substantial correction that would be tradable. More immediately, a target at 2194.00 previously identified here can serve as our minimum upside objective for the next 4-7 days. The failed Turkish coup is unlikely to change that, notwithstanding the fact that index futures tanked at the bell Friday on initial reports that Erdogan, Obama's and the Muslim Brotherhood's favorite dictator, had been deposed.