E-Mini S&P

The bullish pattern shown suggests that the rally from mid-February's low is close to exhaustion, but probably not before it hits the 2017.25 target. Moreover, because the futures have poked decisively above the p2 secondary pivot at 1982.25, they would become a 'mechanical' buy, at least in theory, on a pullback to p=1947.25, stop 1923.75. A similar opportunity to get long via a 1982.25 bid, stop 1970.50, would materialize if that pivot were to be exceeded for a few bars by at least 12 points. To reduce entry risk by as much as 95%, consider using 'camouflage'. This would entail trading an ABC pattern of much small degree if and when a 'mechanical' entry has been signaled at either the red or the pink line. ______ UPDATE (10:15 p.m.): DaSleazeballs have maneuvered the futures a bit higher tonight, bringing into sharp focus a rally pattern with a very shortable target just two ticks above the so-far high.  The target lies at 1986.75, versus an actual high at 1986.25. Here are the coordinates on the 10-minute chart, so that you can see what bulls are up against: A=1966.50 (3/8 at 4:00 p.m.); B=1984.50 (3/9 at 7:20 a.m.); and C=1968.75. _______ UPDATE (8:50 a.m.): Another six weeks of nuclear winter for bears? DaBoyz blew through the 1986.75 target at dawn, apparently intending on the 2016.00 target of a larger pattern (30 minute, A=1796.00 on 2/11; B=1934.75). That is my minimum projection for the very near-term. Short there only if you've been long for a least a part of the ride up.  (Note: This target and the original one at 2017.25 are one and the same; the earlier one was based on an erroneous Tradestation coordinate.)

Bears held an edge yesterday, but not much of one. After tripping a signal to get short in the early going, the futures spasmed their way lower for six hours without achieving the modest 1963.90 target shown. Without the help of horrific news, shorts are unlikely to have an easier time of it on Wednesday. The institutionally rigged high-fliers such as Amazon and Google held their own on Tuesday as the broad averages declined, suggesting they could provide resilience for at least another day or two until buyers find traction. Traders, particularly night owls, should look to bottom-fish at 1963.90 with the tightest of stops.  If this Hidden Pivot support gives way easily, however, bears should take encouragement, since it would be a sign of more weakness to come.

The effort required to barely sustain altitude on Monday was telling. Is it possible this hoax is about to sink without even having achieved the modest 2016.00 target shown? It certainly feels like it -- feels, at least, like the futures may have to come all the way down to p=1946.63 before bulls can get traction. As you may have surmised, I am suggesting that you pass up the ostensible 'mechanical' buying opportunity at 1981.31, because the futures look too punk to traverse the 35-point gap to 2016.00 straightaway.  Instead, I'll recommend jumping on a short if the hypothetical pattern I've sketched at the rightmost edge of the chart pans out as envisioned.

Shifting to the June contract, a 2016.00 rally target comes into sharp focus. This is equivalent to the 2025.50 target I flagged last week for the March futures. The rally pattern itself is quite clear and compelling, since both p and p2 picked up some precise hits last week. Traders can use p2=1981.31, stop 1969.75, to get long 'mechanically'. However, you should attempt this only if you fully understand how 'mechanical' set-ups work, and only if Sunday night's opening is more or less normal (as opposed to driven by some disconcerting headline).  If the long position pans out and you make a few bucks on the way to 2016.00, you can reverse the position and get short there aggressively, since the target, a Hidden Pivot, looks like a high-odds place for a tradable top, even if it doesn't turn out to be THE top.  Incidentally, the 200-DMA for the S&P 500 cash index comes in around 2023 right now. That would roughly coincide with the 2016.00 target for this vehicle.

It's tempting to think the sleep-inducing dirge that has followed Tuesday's explosive rally is setting up a nasty plunge. No less seductive, perhaps, is the notion that the 2002.25 rally target we've been using for this vehicle in recent weeks will mark a very major top. For the record, I'd be surprised if we don't get at least a tradable pullback from that number if and when it is reached. But I would caution subscribers against becoming married to it. Consider the alternative scenario suggested in the accompanying chart. It shows a rally target at 2025.50 that is corroborated by the magnetic price action near p and p2. The pattern is clearly 'working' -- well enough for me to recommend a 'mechanical' buy on a pullback to 1990.81, stop 1979.25, after p2 it has been exceeded first by at least 10 points for several bars.  This would be in addition to the single-contract position I am already tracking:  long, effectively, from 1854.25, with a 2002.25 objective.

Since I heard from several subscribers who used Tuesday's tout to get long before the futures blasted off into the wild blue yonder, I've established a tracking position consisting of four contracts with an initial cost basis of 1941.25.  Assuming half the position was exited for a profit at the midpoint Hidden Pivot, 1964.75, that leaves two contracts with an adjusted cost basis of 1918.25. Now, offer a single contract at 1982.25 (p2) while tying both of them, o-c-o, to a stop-loss at  1938.00. You should also plan on exiting the last contract at or near 2002.75, the 'D' target of the  pattern shown. Use a dynamic trailing stop as the target is approached, meaning continually shrink the stop so that it is never greater than a third of what you stand to gain if the target is hit. _______ UPDATE (7:46 p.m. ET): The futures spent the day head-butting the 1982.25 Hidden Pivot resistance noted above, allowing an easy exit from the third of four contracts originally tracked. Now, as suggested here earlier, to exit the last contract, you should use a 'dynamic' trailing stop as 2002.75 is approached, continually shrinking the stop so that it is never greater than a third of what you stand to gain if 2002.75 us reached. If we impute paper gains booked so far to the single contract that remains, it would lower our cost basis to 1854.25, implying a total gain so far of $6325.  Traders who want to get long belatedly for a shot at 2002.75 should try to acquire more contracts with a mechanical bid at p2=1982.25, stop 1975.25. It would apply only after p2 has been exceeded by at least seven  points.

The bullish pattern at the rightmost edge of the chart (see inset) may not look impressive, but there's potentially enough power in it to push this hoax as high as 2008.50 -- equivalent to 600 Dow points -- over the next 4-6 days. What would it take to trigger such an explosive rally? A pop to 1947.00, for starters. That would trip a buy signal that we could transpose to a chart of lesser degree in order to dramatically reduce the initial risk of getting long. Thereafter, if the rally took off, decisively exceeding the midpoint pivot at 1967.50, that would make further upside to the 2008.50 target no worse than an even-odds bet.  All of this remains hypothetical at the moment, however, since there is not yet a point 'C' low in place that we can use to calculate actual Hidden Pivot levels. Even so, a lower point C than the tentative one shown at 1926.50 would not alter my analysis. And if C were to occur just above A, that would set up the kind of back-up-the-truck 'counterintuitive' buy that no subscriber should pass up. Whatever happens, you should keep your focus on the pattern shown, since, trading opportunities aside, it can tell us whether buyers are about to come a-roaring, or roll over and die. _______ UPDATE (March 1, 3:10 p.m. ET): Today's massive rally -- the Dow has been up by as much as 350 points so far -- came from an actual low at 1920.75 that slightly altered the bullish pattern I'd drawn. The entry trigger came at 1941.25, with a telltale push past a midpoint pivot relocated to 1961.75.  The target for this wilding spree is now 2002.75.  Mechanical entries, ideally on charts of 10-minute degree or less, should be considered on a pullback

I've reproduced two months' worth of price action so that can see the wide-open space that will greet buyers if they should try to push this vehicle significantly higher. Technically speaking, only a move to at least 1960.25 looks like a safe call. However, if this Hidden Pivot resistance gives way easily -- meaning within an hour or two of when it is first touched -- that would be strong evidence that still-higher prices impend. Judge for yourself how much supply looms between these levels and record highs a little more than a hundred points above. Most immediately, traders can use a pullback to 1941.88 to get long mechanically, stop 1935.75. If you get to 1960.25, save a contract or two for a swing at the fences. _______ UPDATE (February 28, 7:18 p.m. ET): A 'counterintuitive' buy at 1933.25, stop 1920.00, is the most appealing prospect at the moment -- presumably for Sunday night-owls. You could cut the $650 theoretical initial risk by as much as 95% by using the camouflage' technique. _______ UPDATE (February 29, 8:48 a.m.): Take profits on half near p=1946.25 if you bought multilots at 1933.25 as I'd suggested last night. Single-contract positions can use an 'impulsive' stop from the 5-minute chart. At the moment, that means bailing out on a swoon touching 1937.25. Most immediate objective: D=1951.00, provided p2=1948 (5-min, A=1931.50) is breached to the upside. If and when the futures get there, take a partial profit on  an additional 25% of the original position.

Bears were winning Wednesday's tug-of-war in the early going, but when their heels started slipping and sliding around 1:00 p.m., they were doomed to a dunking in the losers' mud pit. There was no nefarious 'They' or Plunge Protection Team causing this to happen, either, only themselves -- with increasingly desperate spasms of short-covering that swung the Dow 360 points off the intraday low. Those who used Amazon as a telltale as I've suggested might have bailed out around 1:57 p.m., when the stock lurched above some prior peaks on its way to a spectacular, 30-point reversal. At the bell, the futures looked bound for at least 1957.38, a Hidden Pivot midpoint 24 points above Wednesday's settlement price. That's my minimum upside projection for Thursday, but if it's brushed aside, look for the run-up to continue to at least 1992.69, or possibly even 2028.00 over the near-term. Night owls should use the 1946.50 peak that I've labeled to fashion a low-risk entry point if the opportunity should arise.  A bc-type pullback from a point or two above that peak could set up a 'camouflage' entry with the potential to get you aboard with risk tightly controlled.  I've sketched this hypothetically, but the actual trigger would come, not on the daily chart as shown, but on one-  or three-minute bars. _______ UPDATE (2:20 a.m. EST): Asian stocks are getting slammed, tilting the odds in favor of bears. For further details, check  The Morning Line, above. _______ UPDATE (11:21 a.m.): DaBoyz needed to maneuver the futures only ten points lower to exhaust sellers. This was our first hint that today would be a nothing day.  And so it has been so far -- boring and unworthy of our close attention.