E-Mini S&P

Boring markets turn out to be very predictable -- and tradable, provided one can stay awake for the opportunities. Take the 2212.75 rally target flagged here last night, for one. It not only caught the high of the last 24 hours within 1.00 point, it also set up a short from the top that could have produced a gain of as much as $900 per contract.  Nor was this opportunity merely hypothetical. Posting in the chat room, a subscriber reported actually doing the trade and coming away with a nice gain.  The rally target represented the terminus of a minor uptrend in a market that has been too feeble to pop. Notice that when the futures reversed direction and carved out a pattern of even larger degree, the intraday low came within two ticks of its D target, 2091.00. European subscribers ought to pay particular attention to my daily tout for this vehicle, since its highs and lows, although often precisely predictable, have occurred almost routinely between 3:00 a.m. and 5:00 a.m. EDT, when most U.S. traders are asleep. But for their counterparts living in Western Europe -- or Australia, for that matter -- the set-ups have occurred in prime time. _______ UPDATE (10:28 p.m. EDT): You'll need to drill down to the five-minute chart to come up with a 'European' trade for tonight. Use the p, p2 and d of this pattern for a 'mechanical' entry: a=2093.00 at 3:50 p.m. Thursday; b=2101.75 at 5:05 p.m. and c=2098.50. If you're unsure how to use this tactic, seek out a collaborator in the chat room.

The futures bounced yesterday two ticks from the 2101.75 target I'd flagged the night before. However, if you missed buying near the low, which occurred a few minutes before the opening bell, the remainder of the day would have entailed a struggle to stay awake. The rally carried to 2112.00 -- worth nearly $500 per contract to anyone lucky enough to have been long for the ride -- but from that point forward, stocks meandered in a trance-inducing range for the next five hours. This was on a day when earnings announcements from AAPL and Chipotle should have energized stocks. Instead, Chipotle took a maniacal leap in the opening minutes, then leveled off into a tight range; while AAPL, for its part, jumped to recover half of the previous night's losses, then went brain-dead until the close. Going forward, I'd suggest a 'mechanical' buy on a pullback to p=2107.75, using a stop-loss at 2106.75.  The trade looks like it could ripen before the bell, so I am recommending it to night owls.  Regardless, my immediate expectation is for a rally to D=2112.75, a Hidden Pivot that can be shorted provided you've been long on the way up. ________ UPDATE (9:57 a.m. EDT): No trade got triggered at p; however, a 'mechanical buy' from p2=2110.25 would have worked, producing a $125 profit in 56 minutes following entry at 12:28 a.m. The trader would have  experienced no adversity, since 2110.25 was the low tick of the rally that ultimately reached the target. Thereafter, the futures never got above 2113.75, so reversing the position at the target as advised would have worked too, producing a gain so far of a little more than $400 per contract. Not bad on a day when 'nothing' is happening.

The pattern shown has been working very precisely and implies there will be a tradable low at 2101.75.  In addition, the prospect of initiating 'mechanical' shorts from either p2 or p, or both, looks enticing, assuming these two price points are hit in a way that meets our criteria for the mechanical trade.  If you're unclear about how to execute it, don't hesitate to ask in the chat room.

The bull pattern shown is one I only just discovered -- of necessity, since the trendline we'd been counting on to impede the rally at 2119.25 has proven to be a relative pushover. This pattern, with a target at 2141.25, shows a decisive midpoint penetration on Monday that all but ensures more upside over the near-term to at least p2=2129.75.  The pattern was also a 'mechanical' buy on the pullback early in the session to p=2118.20 (stop 2114.20). Night owls could short 2129.75 with a stop-loss as tight as three ticks, but keep in mind that anything above the stop would likely put the futures on track for 2141.25. That last number can be shorted aggressively if you've been long on the way up.

Wonder of wonders, the futures have accomplished Wednesday evening what they were unable to do all day -- i.e., break out to new highs above the 2106.25 target that I'd flagged the night before. They'd head-butted that Hidden Pivot resistance for the entire day, stuck in a constipated range. To break free required a shakedown 90 minutes before the final bell that dried up selling. Once that had been accomplished, DaBoyz had their launching pad for a short squeeze that is continuing as I write these words. I still have my doubts the rally will achieve new record highs. Regardless, we should look to intercept it with a short at 2119.25, where a trendline shown here yesterday comes in. Initiating the trade via 'camouflage' is recommended -- and don't hesitate to ask in the chat room if you need guidance.  I mentioned during Wednesday's tutorial session that we shouldn't be surprised to see the futures hit the target nanoseconds before the final bell. But don't let that stop you from taking a small short position home overnight, provided you are able to monitor it and exit if necessary. There is no Greek news left to catalyze a short-squeeze, so stocks should be viewed as wafting higher on fumes and zero bullish buying interest. A delicate uptrend, to be sure. ______ UPDATE (July 16, 12:19 p.m.): The futures topped at 2118.75, two ticks from my target. Let's keep our fingers crossed.

The futures ended the day a tick from the 2093.75 rally target I'd disseminated in the chat room five hours earlier. As I noted facetiously at day's end, such was the vigor of the rally that it would have worked out to a profit of $3.57/hour for anyone who got long early in the session. The rally was more of a waft, actually -- virtually all of it attributable to short-covering. But merely because there are no bullish buyers is not necessarily a reason why the rally cannot continue.  If it does, you should be prepared to use the 2106.25 target that I flagged in my update as a minimum upside projection for the near term. It would be subject to Hidden Pivot resistance (p2) at 2100.25. Night owls can try getting long 'mechanically' by bidding 2093.75, stop 2091.50, once p=2093.75 has been exceeded by at least three points. Keep in mind that at least several bars must pass between the upside penetration of p and the retracement to that number before you enter a bid.  FYI, the point 'A' low of the pattern (on the 60-minute chart) is 2061.50 (3:00 a.m. EDT Monday). Although I'm convinced the market is in a broad topping pattern -- indeed, breadth may already have made its bull-market high -- I doubt that 2106.25 will contain this rally. (The target is quite short-able nonetheless, and I would strongly encourage you to do so, especially if you've been long on the approach.) More interesting than my Hidden Pivot resistance is the trendline in the chart shown. If it were to be reached today, it comes in around 2119.75, with a downward slope of about 0.25 points per day. You could short it with a stop-loss of perhaps 1.00 point, but a 'camouflage' entry would offer

Index futures have opened Sunday night with their usual headless-chicken flourish, gapping down the equivalent of 130 Dow points. This was a pretty tame compared to the hysterics we've seen the last four or five Sundays. But then, the news concerning Greece was pretty tame as well: Germany & Friends appear resigned to let Greece drop out of the eurozone for a while, presumably until the Greeks get their act together in some as-yet-unspecified way.  There was talk of Greece having to pony up $50 billion euros as a good-faith escrow to pay off its debts while Brussels acts as a de facto bankruptcy trustee. As bankruptcies go, this one seems about as soft as the bankers could conceivably devise, and no one was actually using the B-word. From a technical standpoint, and strictly speaking, the futures were a short when they fell back to 2058.75 after rallying off the heavily manipulated, opening-bar low (see inset). However, they looked so comfortably buoyant that we should probably focus on bullish opportunities instead. Specifically, I'll recommend bottom-fishing with a 2053.25 bid, stop 2051.75.  The trade is recommended for night owls only, since nuttiness could revive briefly when stocks open Monday morning, putting a delicate Hidden Pivot support under more stress than it might be able to abide. _______ UPDATE (11:54 p.m. EDT): The Whoopee Cushion bounce off tonight's heavily engineered low has negated the buying strategy detailed above. Even so, I doubt that the rally will make much headway above Friday's 2074.75 high. Consider shorting a single contract at 2078.75, a minor target that went unfulfilled last week. A 2080.25 stop-loss is appropriate, but you can trade this one more aggressively if you use camouflage.  If you're uncertain how to do this, ask in the chat room for guidance. _______ UPDATE (10:12

The usual mountebanks, hustlers, arse bandits and wild-eyed financiers have goosed the futures 20 points in after-hours trading on news that Greece had submitted a "reform proposal".  We all knew this was coming, but its timing has narrowed the window of opportunity for betting against a successful outcome, as well we should. We would have preferred that the rally had come a few days after today's fleeting melt-up, which was based on the equally stupid and desperate assumption that China's plunge protection team has things under control. Alas, the time to act is now, whether you were prepared to do so or not. Like nearly every short-covering rally we've seen during the last month, this one seems destined to peak around 4 a.m. EDT, when index futures are most easily manipulated on thin volume. If it has been your goal to get short in timely fashion, I have no particularly juicy targets to offer. The market's recent gyrations, wild as they've been, have produced a string of 'inside days' that do not lend themselves to bullseye predictions. Strictly speaking, however, the pattern shown (see inset) projects to 2078.75, a Hidden Pivot resistance that's as good as any I can offer for purposes of getting short. A rally touching that number would imply a bullish breakout above some recent peaks, and although I'm inclined to think it would be a trap, that wouldn't preclude using the 'camouflage technique' to find a low-risk entry spot. You could do so by zooming down to perhaps the one- or three-minute bar chart, shorting the first downtrending abc pattern that occurs after the breakout. If this happens when I or some other Pivoteer is in the chat room, please don't hesitate to ask for guidance. Good luck!

If there is such a thing as easy money in the trading world, it comes to those who go against a dramatic closing high or low.  Thus, if the broad averages end the day at or near the top of a strong rally, you can bet that index futures will sell off moderately in the hour or so after the bell. Conversely, if stocks get slaughtered as they did on Wednesday, their initial move after the bell, via E-Mini index futures, will be up. That is what is occurring in this vehicle at this moment, and it could have been worth as much as $260 per contract so far to anyone who went long at the bell. The reason this trade works so well is that the pros who control these markets -- the night shift, as it were -- are setting themselves up for a resumption of the dominant trend the next day. This strategy perfectly suits those on the other side of the trade, since bears will want to take profits on short positions on days when sellers have prevailed, and bulls will want to do likewise when shares have rallied strongly.  The force of the buying and selling will be muted in comparison to that which occurs during regular hours, but it will usually be strong enough to provide liquid, orderly markets, especially in the first hour or so after the close. Easy money aside, what does yesterday's selloff portend? My guess is that the 2003.75 downside target first broached here a couple of days ago will be achieved.  If so, it would mean the Dow has a further 300 points to fall before the bear cycle begun from 2122.00 on June 22 has run its course. If a pattern that has become entrenched during the last