E-Mini S&P

Price action over the last two days has been unimpressive, to put it mildly. Friday's feeble short squeeze failed to surpass a technically important peak at 2107.75 recorded on March 2, and a second try yesterday failed once again.  Our immediate goal is still to get short if and when the futures achieve a marginal new record high. However, at the rate things are going, it may require patience.  Yesterday's rally failed to complete a minor rally pattern to 2124.00, but I'm going to introduce a 2126.50 target today that comes from a larger pattern that doesn't look as tired. We'll plan on getting short there with a stop-loss as tight as three ticks, but I may be able to improve the odds with real-time guidance and 'camouflage' tactics.  This could conceivably entail getting long for the ride to the target. If successful we would use any profits thereof to cushion a wider stop-loss on the short. Stay tuned to the chat room if interested.

The bottom-fishing foray I'd suggested at 2080.50 (basis the March contract) on Friday was not to be, since the futures pulled back no lower than 2085.00 intraday. The bounce that ensued left the futures in good position for a shot on Monday at new record highs. Specifically, if buyers push energetically above the 2100.25 midpoint pivot shown, they should be deemed capable of a further push to its D sibling at 2124.00. Subscribers will already know that I've been eager to short any promising Hidden Pivot above the old high. This one is exactly what I had in mind, so I will neither drum roll it here, nor disseminate it publicly, nor mention it in the chat room (although I would encourage subscriber to do so quietly). This pivot is your baby, to use as you see fit. Of course, you will able to sell short at 2124.00 much more aggressively if you have caught at least a part of the implied 24-point ride to it.

Yesterday's dirge turned Wednesday's short-squeeze into dud. I don't foresee the downtrend picking up much steam as the week ends, however, and so I'll suggest bottom-fishing at the 2080.50 Hidden Pivot support shown. A three-tick stop-loss can be used initially, but you'll be on your own if the trade goes in-the-black. Upside potential would be to the 'D' target of the larger pattern begun from Wednesday's low. The target is more likely to work precisely if the move down to it is straightforward and happens during the night session.

Yet another dollop of meaningless drivel from the Fed impelled stocks sharply higher on Wednesday, goosing this vehicle to a 2107.75 peak that exceeded my rally target by six points.  The announcement, something to the effect that the Fed would be less 'patient' about implementing a rate hike, was not only semantic garbage, it was also yesterday's news, since the policy change -- that's what the Street and the news media evidently are calling it -- was first floated by the spinmeisters in February.  However, the inconvenient fact that it was stale news didn't stop DaBoyz from triggering off a short squeeze highlighted by a 400-point reversal in the Dow. When big moves happen for stupid reasons, or for no reason at all, I like to fade the trend. Being an unsentimental sort, however, I would expect Mr. Market to take the S&Ps to at least a marginal new all-time high before He pulls the plug. We won't be looking to short the Mother of All Tops, mind you -- that might be as high as 2228.25 -- just to short "a" top that could conceivably be important. In that regard, the nearest Hidden Pivot that looks promising is the one at 2135.25 shown, equivalent to a further Dow rally of about 250 points.  I've set an alert there and will provide real-time guidance if the Hidden Pivot is hit during regular hours when I'm in the chat room.  Keep in mind that if bulls blow past 2135.25 with ease, a new target at 2182.50 would be in play.

The S&Ps and the Dow went their separate ways yesterday -- and what was that all about?  Since Apple moved higher with the blue chips, we'll give bulls the slight benefit of the doubt ahead of Wednesday's Fed-palooza.  The uptrending pattern shown projects to 2101.75, equivalent to a 220-point Dow rally, but that doesn't seem like much if the Fed is going to renege on its quasi-pseudo-crypto, sort-of pledge to raise rates. Whatever you believe is coming, I wouldn't bet too heavily on it ahead of the announcement. _______ UPDATE (3:44 p.m.):  Impelled by the latest drivel from the Fed, the trade-desk chimps have overshot my 2101.75 target by a few points. The so-far peak of today's irrational exuberance occurred at 2107.75.

Yesterday's rally didn't quite reach the bullish threshold at 2082.75 that I'd flagged, but it left little distance to be covered ahead of Wednesday's deadline. In the meantime, the hourly chart is a bull trade, albeit one that should be initiated with care because the intraday high did not surpass March 9's key external peak at 2074.75. The appropriate pattern to use to fashion an entry trigger is shown, although I would have selected 2063.50 as point A if the futures had exceeded 2074.75. _______ UPDATE (11:40 a.m. EDT): And down we go.  The futures have been down as much as 12 points; the Dow, bearishly out-of-synch, as much as 190.

Last week ended with a gratuitous price hump -- up big on Thursday, down big on Friday -- that adds to the evidence that the bull market's health may be fading.  The downtrending pattern shown projects to 2024.50, equivalent to a fall in the Dow of about 230 points from these levels. Even so, we'll have to give bulls the benefit of the doubt over the very near term, since the week ended with a short-squeeze upswing. It would have to hit 2082.75 by no later than Wednesday, however, to generate the kind of impulse leg that's capable of propelling the S&Ps to new all-time highs.  Sunday night-owls keen on initiating a trade should looks to do so on charts of 5-minute degree or less. Friday's session-ending short-squeeze was bullishly impulsive, but perhaps too obviously so to offer a good entry spot on the first signal.

The hourly chart was uncorrected the whole way up yesterday, meaning shorts will be on the ropes at the opening bell. This being a Friday, they'll be growing increasingly nervous if stocks take merely a moderate path higher, correcting with shallow breaths rather than the wild swings we've come to expect. Bottom line: It could be an interesting day -- interesting enough to create some bullish buzz ahead of next week.

At the closing bell, the futures were in a tiresome slog that pointed toward the 2031.50 midpoint Hidden Pivot shown. Night owls can try bottom-fishing there with a stop-loss as tight as three ticks, but be aware that the decisive breach of this support would portend more downside over the near term to the 2011.00 'D' target. Thereafter, any lower could turn February's 1973.75 low magnetic. Alternatively, and most immediately, the lesser charts would turn slightly bullish on a pop exceeding 2043.00.  That's equal to an external peak visible on the 15-minute chart (4:45 p.m.),  and a bc-type pullback from just above it could be used to get long.