E-Mini S&P

Night owls may have a shot at the rally setting up Monday night on the lesser intraday charts. I'd wait for a second or even third point-C low before attempting a camouflage-type entry from the long side, however, since DaBoyz may be a little skittish about launching an after-hours rally on the heels of a correction that dragged on until the final hour of Monday's session. Alternatively, and unlikely as it seems at the moment, if the futures dip beneath the 'external' low at 2095.25 that I've labeled in the chart, that would turn the lesser charts short-term bearish. _______ UPDATE: The rally went according to plan, with a final point 'C' low at 2102.75 in the first 30 minutes of the regular session. Entry was at 2104.75, although you'd have needed an HFT machine to get aboard. Of all the vehicles that are easy to read, this one, a mirror image of the 50,000 whack-jobs who follow it, remains the hardest to actually trade.

Given the clarity of the 2105.00 rally target we've been using for a while, I'd be very surprised if an important top did not form near current levels. As a practical matter, however, I wouldn't suggest letting the short position we initiated on Friday run against us much more than it already has. Specifically, I'll recommend covering the short Sunday night or Monday morning if the futures touch 2110.25. You can re-short at the 2117.25 target shown, stop 2118.25, but there's no point in the interim letting our existing position run seven more points against us, which it very likely would if 2110.00 is touched. Additionally, you could get long "against the box" with a mechanical buy at p=2099.00.  A 2096.25 stop-loss would apply, o-c-o with an order to exit profitably at 2117.00

We exited four calls yesterday for a loss that could have been as much as $150 or as little as $50, depending on which strike was held. TLT looks like it could fall further over the near term to the 124.51 Hidden Pivot support shown. Since my bullish long-term outlook for T-Bonds is unchanged, notwithstanding the nastiness of this correction, I'll recommend bottom-fishing again via the purchase of four March 13 127 calls with TLT trading within 0.04 of the target. Try to position your bid so that it is midway between the reflected bid and offer, and stop yourself out of the position if the stock touches 124.39. I don't recommend buying the options by paying the offer. Here's why.  Let's say the options are quoted at 0.88-0.98 as TLT closes on the 124.51 target. If you pay 0.98 for them and the stock falls just a little further, to 124.39, you would find yourself hitting a bid of perhaps 0.83 to exit the calls. This implies an instant, 0.15 loss on each option even though the underlying stock has barely exceeded our target. Better to forgo the trade than to expose yourself to such risk. This is, after all, a speculative bet on picking the bottom at a minor Hidden Pivot support. If we miss the low, there will always be another opportunity to get aboard, even if at a higher price (where entry risk might be smaller). Here is one further strategy for getting long in TLT that I posted in the chat room: "If you want to try getting back in, I'd suggest doing so with an uptrending 'camouflage' ABC from just beneath Tuesday's 125.92 low. TLT may or may not fall to the 124.51 target, but my strong gut feeling is that it will at

Although the futures have made almost no headway since last Friday, somehow they still feel unstoppable. In any event, the March E-Mini contract looks to be on track for a rendezvous today with the 2105.00 target shown. This Hidden Pivot resistance happens to coincide with The Target That Dare Not Speak Its Name, providing us with a possible opportunity to short it without getting nervous about its potential importance. I'll suggest doing just that, stopping a one-contract position at 2106.25.  You can step up the size if you initiate the trade using 'camouflage', or if you've been on board for the implied rally to the target. But don't worry too much about competition, since I doubt that 2105.00 looms large among traders. _______UPDATE: Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

In a small way, the futures have turned impulsively bearish on the hourly chart. I won't go out on a limb even slightly, however, since it's hard to tell what DaBoyz might have on their thieving little minds following the three-day holiday weekend.  Traders should plan on getting short at the target that dare not speak its name, but don't hesitate to nudge me in the chat room if you need guidance in real time. The width of the stop-loss should be based on any success you night have catching the implied ride north. As of Tuesday night, I would suggest doing so using a midpoint support or D target similar to the one I've sketched hypothetically in the chart shown. _______ UPDATE (February 17, 6:42 p.m. EST): Zzzzzzzz. No change.

Yesterday's subdued giddiness took out a series of minor Hidden Pivot targets one by one, moving from one to the next like a relay runner passing the baton. There were minor pullbacks precisely from each, but they were insufficient to bring satisfaction to anyone looking to get short. There will be a time and a place  for that, and you can learn more about it by checking out my 16:59 post in the chat room Thursday. In the meantime, with higher targets above, day-trading with a bullish bias is recommended. If you'd rather short minor rally targets, then I would strongly suggest getting long for the ride to them, especially when your gut is telling you they are all but certain to be reached. Any profits earned thereof will serve as a cushion to widen the stop-loss on intended shorts. Realize in any case that with the broad averages just an inch from new record highs, headless-chicken behavior will be more pronounced than usual in the markets. The effect is liable to be especially pronounced this time because the chickens have been penned up since December as stock indexes have gyrated wildly within a frustrating range.

Conflicting news about Greece drove index futures batty for a while Wednesday evening. Immediately after the day-session close, the E-Mini S&Ps took off on mistaken news that Greece had accepted Germany’s bailout terms. The ensuing 18-point rally spiked to 2079.50, just inches from the 2081.25 target we’d been using for the last couple of days. Armed with that Hidden Pivot, a dead-eyed subscriber in the chat room reported getting short at the top, calling it “the quickest buck I have ever made”. The plunge he was able to leverage was good for a 20-point ride, but the futures have bounced a little since, even though it is now official that Greece and Europe still don’t have a deal. Will we be able to stand the suspense until Monday, when the talks resume? Since we have higher targets outstanding, my hunch is that something that at least looks and quacks like a deal will be announced next week. Greece and Wall Street may celebrate the announcement if and when it comes, but we shouldn’t kid ourselves that whatever has transpired will allow Greece to come off the respirator. In fact, and as we well know, nothing of substance will have changed.

The 2059.25 target that I put out Monday night caught the top of a 16-point plunge within single tick, but only one subscriber claimed to have gotten short there. Once the subsequent low was made around mid-morning at 2043.25, DaBoyz applied the old squeezeroonie and maintained pressure on bears for the remainder of the session. They left room, however, for a further run-up on Wednesday to the 2081.75 target shown -- the same Hidden Pivot that we used yesterday as a minimum price objective. Night owls can use a pullback to the midpoint pivot at 2059.25 to get long, but if you initiate the trade 'mechanically' I'd suggest buying just a single contract, since the implied stop-loss would be at 2051.50 (yikes!). As always, a 'camouflage' entry would be the best, although not necessarily easiest, way to get aboard.

Monday's weakness was unpersuasive even though it looked 'organic' rather than staged. When the dust settled, sellers had failed to push the futures down to a modest Hidden Pivot support at 2032.75 (see inset). That is ever-so-mildly bullish. I won't hazard much of a prediction for Monday night or Tuesday, but because the 2032.75 target remains valid, you can try bottom-fishing there -- just one contract -- with a stop-loss as tight as 1.00 point. Alternatively, if the futures don't take out Monday's low overnight, look for a rally to at least p=2059.25 based on the large pattern shown. Any significant progress above that Hidden Pivot would portend more upside over the near term to as high as 2081.75. _______ UPDATE (9:32 a.m.): My 2059.25 target caught the top of a 17-point rally overnight within a single tick. The subsequent pullback so far has been 16 points, so the target could have produced a substantial gain for longs,  shorts, or both. If you still hold a position based on the above, please let me know in the chat room and I will establish a tracking position.