E-Mini S&P

It's not exactly a sign of robust health that the futures collapsed yesterday without having exceeded last Thursday's 1867.75 peak. Bulls missed that benchmark by two ticks, and although that might not seem like much, it's enough to suggest that there is not sufficient buying power, including short-covering, to push this hoax to new record highs any time soon. My inclination, at least for the moment, is to treat any rally as a shorting opportunity. Stay tuned to the chat room for precise levels based on Hidden Pivot targets.

Yesterday's rally did not surpass even a single 'external' peak, although it might easily have done so with a mere additional 1.00 point of upside. This suggests that the shorts who typically do most of the heavy lifting are pretty complacent at the moment. They may be justified, since it is not exactly bullish for stocks that the U.S. is rapidly shrinking from importance in world affairs, and that its inept president, whose experience goes no deeper than a stint as a community organizer, has become a global laughing stock. Be that as it may, it would take just a small rally to surpass the 1867.75 peak shown. That would turn the chart bullishly impulsive and greatly shorten the odds of a 70-point run-up to the 1933.50 target shown. Traders looking to leverage this scenario should see in this chart the potential for a relatively subtle 'camouflage' buying opportunity to unfold that would use the low that I've labeled 'A' as the point of departure. Please query me about this in the chat room if you're interested, since some of the details are proprietary with the Hidden Pivot Method.

DaBoyz never looked back after knee-capping widows, orphans and pensioners in the early going Sunday night. From that point forward it was up, up and awaaaayyyyy, with only a modest selloff at the opening bell designed to rape the few nervous Nellies who somehow survived the night.  By day's end, the futures had recouped almost precisely 0.618 of last week's losses. That could turn yesterday's high into a stubborn resistance, but not so stubborn that we should bet heavily that it will endure for more than a few more hours. If the futures do in fact move higher as seems likely, there are not many distinctive 'external' peaks to use for purposes of generating a 'camouflage' buy signal. I've flagged one at 1859.50 that might work, however, provided a b-c pullback comes from just above it.

This week's commentary raises the prospect of Ukraine rising to the top of Wall Street's worry list at some point, assuming the Street is even capable of worrying about much of anything other than whatever worthless drivel emanates from the Fed.  As you can see in the chart, however, the worrying had not begun as of early Monday morning. Although DaBoyz pulled their bids on the opening bar Sunday night, sending this vehicle 10 points lower, short-covering has pushed it back up to unchanged. If you are inclined to get your bearish hopes up nonetheless, note that the low of Sunday night's swoon was just a few ticks shy of exceeding a second 'external' low on the daily chart.  This could still happen before the day is over, and if it does it would increase the odds  that the selloff begun six days ago from 1887.50 is the start of a major decline.

Recent price action has served up such unappetizing slop for trading that I thought it might be useful to trot out the weekly chart as a reminder of our high-confidence rally target at 1945.00. Notice that the target's sibling midpoint pivot at 1838.50 was left choking on dust after a stall there for two consecutive weekly bars. This suggests that 1945.00 is all but certain to be reached, notwithstanding the hectoring petulance of this little devil's daily war dance.  A pullback to the red line should be regarded as a buying opportunity, although I'd suggest using the 'camouflage technique' to reduce theoretical risk if it happens. _______ UPDATE (1:20 p.m. EDT): Today's selloff is unimpressive so far, even on the hourly chart (which is bearishly impulsive). However, the selling would get our attention if ES continues lower, exceeding Feb 20's 1817.25 bottom  That would generate a bearish impulse leg on the daily chart.  For now, though, we'll wait and see what kind of follow-through (i.e., c-d leg) today's downdraft brings.

The futures jitterbugged their way to nearly 40 points of up-and-down range yesterday, but there were few trading opportunities on the intraday charts that I would describe in retrospect as having been 'straightforward'.  Under the circumstances, night owls may have better luck bottom-fishing near the 1858.50 target shown. The corrective pattern associated with that number, a Hidden Pivot support, is a bit of a mess, and so it might not attract much attention. If you'd rather trade with the trend, stick with the 15-minute chart for set-ups and wait for a second entry signal before you get on board. I mention this because of the abundance of false signals that occurred during the regular session. _______ UPDATE (10:48 a.m. EST): The 5-point overshoot of the target this morning suggests there will not be much enthusiasm behind any rally today, but neither is their any guts behind the selling. As always, however, you should view leaden price action -- view any price action, actually -- as prelude to the next, engineered upthrust.

The futures popped through our longstanding rally target at 1881.50 on Friday, and although they settled just beneath it, the six-point overshoot implies that the broad averages are likely to head still higher this week. I'll update if Sunday night's opening seems to suggest that traders are worried about Ukraine, or perhaps even about the possibility that jihadists sabotaged Flight #370 out of Malaysia.  The fact that the world  is arguably a more dangerous place than it was even a week ago will be of little concern to Wall Street, but sometimes the stock market will waver briefly anyway because traders are worried that other traders might somehow see such events as being material to the ups and downs of shares.  Whatever the case, we'll use the 1945.00 rally target broached here last week as a minimum upside objective for the near term. _______ UPDATE (3:03 a.m. EST): The futures are struggling feebly to achieve a correction target at 1867.75. Night owls can try bottom-fishing there for a single contract (unless via camouflage), using a 1.00 point stop-loss. Please note, however, that if short-covering buyers fail to materialize at 1867.75, this brick could fall all the way to 1860.30 before finding traction. (That Hidden Pivot support would be tradable as well.)

The futures spent the entire day playing toe-sies with an 1881.50 rally target disseminated on Wednesday. Some subscribers reported getting short, but they'll need some luck to hang onto the position. Although it took this gas-bag several days to hit our number, suggesting that short-covering is weak at the moment, this is unlikely to last. Pullbacks have been shallow, keeping bears pinned to the ropes, and it will take a nasty downdraft as the week draws to a close to put bears in the comfort zone come Monday. Stranger things have happened, of course, but it would be passing strange for a downtrend to unfold that lasts for more than a few days. I've broached a 1945.00 target if DaBoyz should bully their way to new highs in the week ahead. Although I am unable to imagine a good reason for such an explosion, I've learned over the last five years that no reason is needed. More immediately, since the E-Mini ended the day in the throes of a pattern that was impulsively bearish on the 15-minute chart (targeted on 1872.50, where A=1880.50 at 1:10 p.m. EST), night owls should trade with a bearish bias. (Please note, however, that this endeavor could prove dicey, since bears are having an awful struggle holding this little sonofabitch down in after-hours trading.)  Another tactic would be to bottom-fish the target -- or 'a' target -- with the goal of racking up sufficient gains on any ensuing rally to cushion the stop on the next short.

This hoax could hit 1945, a Hidden Pivot target, over the next week or two, but first it will have to get past the 1881.50 target shown. That's been my minimum price objective for a while, and the fact that such a modest target is taking days to achieve suggests that short-covering is pretty well spent, at least for the very near-term. Still, the pullbacks have been shallow, giving bears no real respite, and it is therefore only a matter of time before they reach critical mass again to catalyze the next stab higher. Traders looking to board for what remains of the rally should look for opportunities on charts of 5-minute degree or less. The target is short-able with a three-tick stop-loss, but I wouldn't suggest impeding the flow too aggressively.