E-Mini S&P

The futures bottomed on Friday a single point from where expected, at 1680.00, then spent the rest of the day flailing around. Only one trader in the chat room reported having bought the low, but if you did, it would have been prudent to have exited before the bell.  Price action was ostensibly bullish as the week came to a close, but if you're keen to re-enter a long position ahead of whatever sausage Congress is about to extrude, I'd suggest using the very nice 'external' peak at 1687.75 (see inset) for leverage. Any shallow 'a-b' pullback from just above it could set up a low-risk entry opportunity for camouflageurs. _________ UPDATE (11:03 p.m. EDT, Sunday):  Sunday night's opening has produced a gap-down bar through 1680.00 that all but guarantees more downside over the near term to at least 1662.50.  Risk-takers can try bottom-fishing there with 'camouflage,' but the pattern has so many things going for it (see inset) that I'll also sanction a 1662.50 bid, stop 1661.75.

The futures continue to move very precisely in both directions relative to Hidden Pivot supports and resistances (see inset). That implies the correction begun from last Thursday's high will reverse from very near the 1673.25 midpoint shown, and that the subsequent rally will carry to a potentially important top at exactly 1769.50 (previously given as 1767.00). Most immediately, however, scalpers can try bottom-fishing via at exactly 1681.00, or if any lower at 1669.00. These are Hidden Pivot correction targets from the hourly chart, and although I expect each to be tradable with a very tight stop-loss, either has the potential to produce a major bottom that would effectively pre-empt one at the 1673.25 'redline' shown in the chart. _______ UPDATE (September 27, noon EDT): The futures have taken a so-far six-point, impulsive bounce off a 1680.00 low.  If you used my correction target to get long, please let me know in the chat room and I'll establish a tracking position for your further guidance.

What a thrill it was to watch this fearsome predator reverse and embark on a wilding spree off a low yesterday that lay just a single tick beneath the critical threshold I'd flagged at 1687.75.  Stops got run up-the-wazoo, giving the upthrust more power than if it had proceeded from the routine, night-session low at 1689.50 (a precise midpoint support, as it happened, derived from Monday's high). The futility and deviousness of the rally were laid bare by day's end when the futures came crashing down in the final two hours of the session. This left a tortuous pattern on the hourly chart, although one could still extract from it a 1681.00 correction target (see inset). This number looked promising for bottom-fishing on Wednesday, but I'd suggest doing so 'camouflage'-style on charts of five-minute degree or less.  Please note that bulls would need a print today at 1707.75 to get back on the warpath (and therefore back on-track for 1767.00, my current big-picture rally target).

After topping just beneath a 1728.50 rally target flagged here earlier, the futures have retraced to a similarly promising Hidden Pivot support at 1692.60, where I've suggested cautious bottom-fishing.  Caution is warranted because just a small overshoot would exceed an important low at 1687.75 recorded on September 17 (see inset), putting the burden of proof on bulls for a rare change. It would also reduce the odds of reaching a 1767.00 target straightaway that had looked like a great bet less than a week ago.

The tradable swings of the last couple of days have been precisely predictable, as you can see in the accompanying chart. Under the circumstances, we should look for the next push to hit 1712.75 exactly and then stall. Traders looking for a 'camouflage' foothold should use the series of 'external' peaks I've highlighted for leverage, since a 'b-c' pullback from between any pair of them could create the sort of low-risk buying opportunity that is worth waiting for.  D=1712.75 would of course be short-able, with a stop-loss as tight as four ticks. ______ UPDATE (6:57 p.m EDT) The initial bar of yesterday's 'No-Tapeworm!!' short squeeze hit 1713.00 exactly before selling off by 7 points on the next.  When the futures got second wind they rallied again, this time to within three ticks of a 1724.00 target easily discernible on the two-minute chart (A=1695.00 at 2:00 p.m., B= 1713.00 at 2:02 p.m, and C=1706.00 at 2:06 p.m.). So what's next? Look for resistance not far above, at the 1728.50 target of the pattern shown (a new chart). If it gives way easily, however, we'd probably be looking at a finishing stroke to 1767.00, a precise and presumably reliable target that projects from the beautiful one-off 'A' at 1549.75 near the lower left-hand edge of the chart. _______ UPDATE (September 19, 6:40 p.m. EDT):  The feeble bull trap that began in the wee hours Thursday with a rally to 1726.75 -- inches shy of the 1728.50 target given above -- changed nothing in my outlook, least of all the very bullish, 1767.00 target. If the futures continue to correct, however, touching 1692.60, traders should view this as a potential 'camo' buying opportunity, since that's where the Hidden Pivot midpoint of the big rally pattern shown is located.

With Sunday night's $28 surge, December Gold's 60-minute and weekly charts are now synchronously bullish. However, while the former has already tripped a buy signal, the latter will need to hit 1345.20 -- $9.30 above the so-far high -- to do likewise. Traders should come to the task with a bullish bias, but I'd suggest waiting for a second point 'C' low to form before you look for a 'camouflage' entry signal on the lesser charts.

It's official: The E-Mini S&Ps are about to leap at least 70 points, to 1769.50, catalyzed by the seemingly inevitable choice of Janet Yellin as Ben Bernanke's replacement. Those of you who are familiar with Hidden Pivot dynamics will be struck by the way tonight's short-squeeze has gapped effortlessly through a midpoint resistance -- one that was all the more daunting because of its close proximity to the old record high. By our runes, this all but guarantees a run-up to the 1769.50 'D' target (see inset) with which the midpoint pivot is associated. That would be equivalent to a Dow rally of about 600 points, so traders should take an aggressively bullish stance between here and the target.  Please note as well that a retracement on Monday to the 1693.90 midpoint or very close to it would strongly imply that the rally will top, at least short-term, at exactly 1769.50, making it short-able. ______ UPDATE (September 17, 12:22 a.m. EDT): Early Tuesday morning, the futures were poised to stairstep lower on 'D' pivots that lay, successively, at 1684.75,  1683.00 and 1681.75 (5-min, A=1698.50, with various B-C combinations).  Very precise action at the 1688.00 p midpoint associated with the 1683.00 target suggests it will be the best place to try bottom-fishing with a straight bid -- i.e, without 'camouflage'). Accordingly, I'll suggest attempting entry with a 1683.25 bid, stop 1682.75 (!) This set-up looks very promising, but because the rally could be fragile, be prepared to take a partial profit on an initial move of as little as 4-5 ticks.

It's just a short leap to the next important Hidden Pivot resistance, 1693.90 (a midpoint, see inset), but bears shouldn't lean too heavily on it, since a rally that touches it will fully replenish the bullish impulsiveness of the daily chart. Camouflageurs should note the succession of 'external' peaks recorded in August on the way down, since a b-c pullback beginning from between any pair of them would present a great opportunity to jump on the long side with relatively little risk.  ______ UPDATE (September 13, 12:35 a.m. EDT): An inside day has left my advice unchanged. Traders should be prepared to pounce if the futures pull back in the manner described above.

Friday's wild and gratuitous gyrations narrowly failed to exceed the 1664.25 'look-to-the-left' peak shown in the chart, confirming our suspicion that bulls were too cowardly to attempt anything daring that day. What they were unable to achieve honestly during the regular session could be easily accomplished Sunday night, but we'll wait for it to happen before jumping aboard. Accordingly, 'camo' traders should look for an 'x' entry signal following any b-c pullback from just above 1664.25.  The opportunity will come very quickly if it's a good one, so you should be ready to pounce. ______ UPDATE (September 10): The pattern I'd sketched described very precisely the way things actually played out. A buy signal at 1664.75 was triggered Monday shortly after 11 a.m, and if you followed my suggestion you should still be long a single contract with a profit-adjust cost basis of about 1657.00. Please let me know in the chat room and I'll establish a tracking position for your further guidance.