ESH13

No change in my outlook. To avoid "rally-target hubris," I'm going to leave the target itself unmentioned today. However, it's there in the archive if you're unclear on exactly what we're shooting for.  I'll also be keeping close tabs on the hourly chart to guard against the possibility of the stock market's collapsing from somewhere just below our Big Number.  We'll be shorting there aggressively if and when it's reached, so make sure you've checked 'E-Mail Notifications' on your My Account page if you want to be apprised of any trading opportunities that may result in real time.

Talbot, best played by Lon Chaney, used to warn friends not to unlock his door no matter what kind of sounds they heard coming from behind it when the moon was full. Similarly, I'm gone to warn you that no matter what I say or do in the days ahead, we don't want to lose sight of the 1548.25 rally target (see inset), the most promising we've glimpsed on the horizon in a along while. We will want to short aggressively there, albeit with risk tightly under  control, and we'll do it by any means available, camouflage being the first and best choice, as always.  In the meantime, with 42 points of all-but-guaranteed upside ahead of us, we should make every effort, day and night, to 'camo' ourselves aboard the rally.  To that end, night owls should check out, immediately and for starters, the three-minute chart, with its serviceable 'external' peak at 1510.00 from 3:33 p.m. EST.

From a bear's standpoint yesterday was a total waste -- until the final hour, that is. That's when the futures dipped the last couple of inches that were needed to create a promising impulse leg on the hourly chart.  Notice that two 'external' lows were exceeded by the last gasp of the decline (circled in red).  Perhaps as a result we will greet the new day with a song in our hearts, a spring in our step and the earnest hope that the tempo and fervor of the selling picks up? That said, no camouflageur worth his salt would overlook the potential buying set-up that I've highlighted on the right-hand edge of the chart.  Night owls should jump on this one if it plays out the way I've sketched it. A 'timed buy-stop" is suggested for making entry, since this opportunity will come fast if it comes at all.  And wouldn't you love to find out what the heck I'm talking about?  If you've struggled without success to learn how to trade, click here and change your life. ________ UPDATE (10:17 a.m EST):  A 'camo' entry signal was tripped at 1498.25 at around 5:30 a.m., which is when trades in this vehicle often happen.  The coordinates, on the 15-minute chart, are A=1493.75 (5:15 a.m.); B=1498.0 (4:30 a.m.) and C=1497.00.  If you took the trade, please let me know in the chat room and I'll provide tracking guidance.  You should still be long 25% of the original position, with a cost basis of 1492.00.

The futures are entering their fourth consecutive week of narcissistic obliviousness to the real world, but there is no gainsaying the possibility that the foolishness could continue for yet a while  longer.  I am purposely not drumrolling a 1548.25 target publicly, but subscribers should keep it well in mind as place where we can short aggressively.  You've seen the chart enough times to recognize how clear and compelling the target is, but I am reproducing it yet again to remind you of why this target is worthy of our patience.

The futures may have bettered our longstanding target at 1494.50, but not by enough that we should be impressed. The spike high at 1497.75 achieved via a short squeeze on the opening bar was but a perfunctory test of resistance at 1500, a number that is now close enough to have turned magnetic. It also seems too obvious a place for the bull market to die, and that's why I have my suspicions that the 1548.25 target broached here earlier will be achieved. Let us stipulate in the meantime that the futures close above 1500.00 for two consecutive days before we infer that a run-up to 1548.25 is imminent.

We hadn't expected the futures to blow past double Hidden Pivot resistance at 1482.00 noted here earlier, but indeed they have. Another impediment yet remains at 1494.50, a target we've held in mind for several weeks; and let's not forget round-number resistance at 1500.00.  Even so, because we have higher targets outstanding for the likes of Goldman and some other short-squeeze faves, it would be less than shocking if the futures ease past 1500.00 before the week's over.  That would leave only the 1548.25 target shown, a number I aired earlier as a potential last-gasp peak.  Judge for yourself, but for this Pivoteer, at least, an easy move past it is almost beyond imagining.  In the meantime, I wouldn't short here other than very cautiously and via camouflage, but if and when this hoax reached 1548.25, we'll want to be the ranch (albeit with risk tightly capped).  Above 1500.00, however, with the 1548.25 target presumably waxing magnetic, bulls are encouraged to go with the flow, applying rather less daintiness than is our wont.

Subscribers should still be holding a single contract with a cost basis effectively reduced to 1433.50 by partial profit-taking advised along the way.  The position missed the 1470.25 stop-out I'd advised by a single tick on Friday, but a rally since then will have raised the stop to 1479.50 (see inset).  Since this price could get hit in off-hours trading Monday night, I am disseminating this tout in the chat room and to all who have signed up for E-Mail Notifications.  If you exit on the stop, the theoretical gain on the trade would be $2300 per contract. You can do this stuff yourself, and it's easier than you might think. Click here for information about the next Hidden Pivot Webinar.

I am tracking a single contract whose cost basis has effectively been lowered to 1433.50 by partial-profit-taking on three additional contracts held initially. Since we're shooting for a 1494.50 target that has been drum-rolled here for a while, there is good reason to be aggressive by using a generous trailing stop. My suggestion is to plan a 1452.25 exit, based on the 'external' low highlighted in the chart. We'll raise it if the futures take out recent highs near 1472.00, but I'll need to see what the hourly chart looks like at that point in order to extrapolate an impulse-leg stop from it.  I'll post the stop as an update in the chat room, but if you want to be notified in real time by e-mail make sure you've enabled the 'E-Mail Notifications' feature on your My Account page.  _______ UPDATE (January 16 at 6:07 p.m. EST):  Following yesterday's hokeypokey price action, we continue to hold a single contract tied to the risk management criteria spelled out above.  ______ UPDATE (January 17 at 10:06 p.m EST):  We have a theoretical profit of $2000 in our position at current prices, but there's $1000 more to be extracted if and when the futures reach our longstanding target at 1494.50.  For now, we'll maintain a generous fixed stop at 1456.25, where the hourly chart would turn bearishly impulsive.  In the meantime, I see little risk until buyers encounter 1481.75, a Hidden Pivot unmentioned until now that could show sufficient stopping power to terminate the rally.  When we get there, we'll want to tighten up with an impulse leg-based stop-loss using, perhaps, the 5-minute chart.  Stay tuned, since I'll post explicit details here via an update, in the chat room, and by e-mail notification to those of you who have enabled it on your

This glue horse could use a dose of whatever it was that Lance Armstrong was taking.  Eventual movement to a 1494.50 rally target is not in doubt, only the timing of it.  DaBoyz quite evidently are waiting for just the right news item to short-squeeze the futures into a thrust capable of eating through supply in a way that ordinary, bullish buying never can. In the meantime, night owls should consider bottom-fishing at the 1456.50 target of the minor corrective pattern shown. Its 'p' sibling at 1461.75 has been exceeded to the downside by three ticks, probably enough to send this vehicle the full distance in search of tradable support.  Incidentally, an alternative rally target at 1481.75 has belatedly smacked me in the face (belatedly because it was technically 'know-able' as early as November 19: Daily chart, A=1313.00 on July 24; B= 1461.00 on September 14; etcetera.)  Keen as I've been to get short at 1494.50, we should monitor this vehicle closely in case the actual opportunity occurs at the lower target. ______ UPDATE (10:39 a.m. EST):  The bottom-fishing target drum-rolled in today's tout (see above) caught the exact low, which occurred at 8:30 a.m. EST. If you got long down there please let me know in the chat room so that I can establish tracking guidance for your further benefit. ______ UPDATE (10:59 a.m. EST): Several subscribers reported fills on or near the low, so here we go:  Take a partial profit on the position now, with the futures trading around 1462.  Then, use an impulse-leg stop-loss derived from the 5-minute chart. What that currently implies is that you should stop yourself out on any uncorrected downthrust exceeding 1458.25.  If you hold just a single contract, use the same stop-loss, but widen it and swing for the fences if