ESH13 – March E-Mini S&P (Last:1464.75)

This glue horse could use a dose of whatever it was that Lance Armstrong was taking.  Eventual movement to a 1494.50 rally target is not in doubt, only the timing of it.  DaBoyz quite evidently are waiting for just the right news item to short-squeeze the futures into a thrust capable of eating through supply in a way that ordinary, bullish buying never can. In the meantime, night owls should consider bottom-fishing at the 1456.50 target of the minor corrective pattern shown. Its ‘p’ sibling at 1461.75 has been exceeded to the downside by three ticks, probably enough to send this vehicle the full distance in search of tradable support.  Incidentally, an alternative rally target at 1481.75 has belatedly smacked me in the face (belatedly because it was technically ‘know-able’ as early as November 19: Daily chart, A=1313.00 on July 24; B= 1461.00 on September 14; etcetera.)  Keen as I’ve been to get short at 1494.50, we should monitor this vehicle closely in case the actual opportunity occurs at the lower target. ______ UPDATE (10:39 a.m. EST):  The bottom-fishing target drum-rolled in today’s tout (see above) caught the exact low, which occurred at 8:30 a.m. EST. If you got long down there please let me know in the chat room so that I can establish tracking guidance for your further benefit. ______ UPDATE (10:59 a.m. EST): Several subscribers reported fills on or near the low, so here we go:  Take a partial profit on the position now, with the futures trading around 1462.  Then, use an impulse-leg stop-loss derived from the 5-minute chart. What that currently implies is that you should stop yourself out on any uncorrected downthrust exceeding 1458.25.  If you hold just a single contract, use the same stop-loss, but widen it and swing for the fences if the futures bullishly impulse above 1465.25. _______ UPDATE (January 16 at 6:05 p.m. EST):  Following yesterday’s gratuitous  ups and downs, we continue to hold a single contract tied to the risk management criteria spelled out above.