Euro

An examination of the intraday Euro chart reveals that the alternate "A" point mentioned in yesterday's tout is actually the better of the two, due to a large and exact bounce off of its associated midpoint pivot.  In evening trading a small bearish impulse wave has occurred, and we should watch for this to evolve into a pattern which might allow us to buy the Euro not far above the "C" point of our larger pattern.  That "C" point of 1.3639 must be left untouched for our plan to remain viable.  The "D" target is now 1.3906, far enough away that we can probably leave the question of shorting it for another day.  But if we can get long somewhere above 1.3639, that "D" target is where we'd like the trade to take us.  (Posted by Doug McLagan)

The Euro has continued to move up, consistent with our view that it has recently made a significant low.  But if it reaches a "D" target of 1.3900 soon, it will be overbought and due for a pullback.  We will short at 1.3899 with a stop at 1.3911, risking $150 and taking account of an alternate A point six pips below and just to the left of the one we are using, as shown on the attached chart. (Posted by Doug McLagan)  ______ UPDATE (12:42 a.m. EST, March 18):  This tout has been superseded by the one dated March 18 and is no longer active.

After Friday's strong rally in the Euro, which exceeded three prior highs on the daily chart, the substantial Monday pullback should have us looking to get long for some bullish follow-through.  The "X" point shown on the chart is two pips below an important prior high at 1.3707, visible on the 15-minute and lower timeframes.  Traders should look for a pullback from just above that level to provide a buying opportunity based on a smaller pattern.  (Posted by Doug McLagan)

The futures are coming up on a 1.5131 Hidden Pivot target that looks like a high-odds spot for an important -- and presumably tradable -- top. Longs can use it to manage risk with a shrinking trailing stop, but it can also be shorted with a stop-loss as tight as you can handle.  Once the target has been closely approached (i.e., within 4-7 ticks), camouflage players should use the 3-minute chart to board the first abc downtrend. _____ UPDATE: The rally ran into granite at 1.5059, so we'll pull the short offer for now.

Yesterday's powerful turn from above our target has very bullish implications for the near term, but the futures will still need to get past a key Hidden Pivot midpoint at 1.4175  to prove their mettle. A two-day close above that number would imply additional upside potential to as high as 1.4613. _______ UPDATE (3:05 p.m.):  The futures made it only to 1.4133 before collapsing to wipe out nearly all of the previous day's gains. Once again, a coldly mechanical reading of the charts spared us any emotional investment in the rally.

If the futures breach a midpoint support at 1.3938, look for the decline to continue to at least 1.3847.