Euro

The 1.4496 target aired here yesterday came within 0.0004 points of nailing the intraday high.  Where to now? The chart shows that the next thrust will be to 1.4556, subject to a possible stall at the 1.4487 midpoint. If you're looking for a place to board belatedly, a short pullback from a tick or two above the 1.4492 peak would be ideal. _______ UPDATE: The easy entry we'd sought was not to be, since price action near the 1.4500 high got pretty wild.  We'll back away for now, since bulls and bears may skirmish for the next day or two.

The June contract bulldozed the 1.4384 resistance shown in the chart, suggesting still higher prices to come.  Even so, we should be on the lookout for a possible stall at exactly 1.4496. That's the Hidden Pivot resistance of a lesser pattern, and it can also serve as a minimum upside projection for the next thrust.

A minor, corrective rally looked bound for 1.4096, a midpoint resistance, but if the futures get past it they should be presumed bound for at least 1.4141, its 'd' sibling. If this occurs, it will brighten the prospect of a further ascent to as high as 1.4379 over the near term.

The Euro is gunning for a very shortable target of 1.4237.  America's primary exports, namely its currency and its government debt securities, caught a short-lived bid during Tuesday's market turmoil, a flight to "quality" which didn't last long.  The Euro mirrored the dollar, and by the end of the day had turned back up and surpassed an important midpoint pivot which, on Monday, had terminated a strong rally with exactly one pip to spare.  That reversal was good for almost 150 pips, but by late Tuesday the midpoint had been surpassed, leaving its sibling D target of 1.4237 as the next objective.  Given that the Europeans probably don't want their currency too high, for reasons of export competitiveness, traders should welcome any opportunity to short this Hidden Pivot. (Posted by Doug McLagan)  _______ UPDATE (March 22):  The 1.4237 target caught an important high within eight ticks, anticipating today's nasty drop from 1.4229 to a so-far low of 1.4144.  "Camouflage entry" was very tough to come by, even on the very lesser charts, but officially we did nothing.

A rally target at 1.4046 took so long to reach that I'd forgotten about it.  The actual top occurred a few days ago at 1.4035, and the pullback since has been nasty.  It projects to at least 1.3766, but if that target is breached badly it would imply significantly more weakness ahead.

A rally target at 1.4046 remains valid, but with the futures grinding lower it has little practical value at the moment. An unpaused upthrust exceeding the two numbered peaks, the higher of which lies at 1.3793,  would put bulls in charge again.  Please note that there's a minor Hidden Pivot resistance at 1.3778 above which -- on a closing basis -- the futures would become an odds-on bet to reach a minimum 1.3846.

The March contract has dispatched a midpoint resistance at 1.3735 with ease, implying that the rally will continue to its 'D' sibling, at least: 1.4046.  The target can be shorted with a stop-loss as tight as six ticks, but if you're planning on boarding for the ride north, I'd suggest looking for camouflage cover on the lesser intraday charts.

Against my bullish forecast, the euro got whacked yesterday. There were no tradable implications, however, since the futures failed to generate any bullish impulse legs, even on the five-minute chart, after falling to a highlighted midpoint pivot at 1.3746. If the weakness persists, the nearest target below is 1.3550, a midpoint support that comes from the hourly chart (A=1.3820).

The rally projects most immediately to a Hidden Pivot at 1.3927, implying that the best spot to look for a camouflage long-entry opportunity would be around 1.3746, its midpoint sibling.. The easiest trade that can be culled from this projection would be a short from 1.3927, stop 1.3932. Make the order good through Friday.