Gold

The February Comex contract ended the week with an effortless upswing that fell a tad shy of the pink line, a p2 secondary Hidden Pivot at 1827.00. Assuming the confidence of buyers hasn't diminished over the weekend, we should expect them to reach the 1858.20 D target by no later than midweek. A pullback in the meantime to the red line (p=1795.90) would trigger a 'mechanical' buy, stop 1775.10, that could be traded using an impulsive 'camouflage' trigger on the 5-minute chart. ______ UPDATE (Dec 5, 4:23 p.m.): The gratuitous viciousness of today's selloff is telling us that too many were too bullish when the day began.  The 'mechanical' trade would be $6400 in the red if done conventionally (not recommended), although the position has so far avoided getting stopped out by a heart-stopping $3. A less risky 'mechanical' buy would trigger at the green line (x=1764.70), but I would suggest this only for subscribers with the Hidden Pivot chops to cut the risk down to no more than $1,200 or so (on four contracts).

Friday's high surpassed a look-to-the-left peak recorded a week earlier, refreshing the bullish impulsiveness of the intraday charts. The original chart contained a bad print down at 1719.00, but cleaning it up has produced a serviceable pattern with a midpoint resistance at 1760.30 that can serve as a minimum objective. A further run-up to D=1774.60 would become an odds-on bet if buyers shred their way past 1760 -- or better yet, close above it for two consecutive days. ______ UPDATE (Nov 28, 9:57 p.m.): Here's a fresh chart that salvages a bullish outlook despite today's nasty reversal. It also treats the 1719.00 low of last Wednesday's wack-o downdraft as though it actually happened, which appears to be the case. The chart has signaled a so-so 'mechanical'  buy at x=1740.30 (stop 1718.90) off an intraday high that did not quite reach our sweet spot around 1772.00. ______ UPDATE (Nov 29, 11:02 a.m.): Here's an update on that last chart. It shows the February contract with a D target at 1818.50. Precise play off p=1776.00  suggests this pattern will work well for trading and assessing trend strength. It has already yielded a 'mechanical' buy at the green line that could have been worth as much as $2000 per contract overnight.

The steep ascent from the 1618 low recorded on November 3 has enough power to all but guarantee another big leg up once the initial leg has been fully corrected.  It surpassed no fewer than five prior peaks, three of them 'external', without a visible correction on the daily chart.  So that we don't let expectations get too far ahead of reality, I've projected a rally target at 1907.60 that uses a somewhat conservative 'reverse' pattern. In the meantime, a pullback to the green line (x=1690.60) would generate an appealing 'mechanical' buy signal. The rally may prove too strong to gift us with such an opportunity, but we should be prepared to act if the futures swoon.

Gold has been spitting fire for the last two weeks, so it's doubtful buyers will be deterred by the weighty' external' peak at 1824.60 looming just above. For all the times bullion has disappointed us, reaching a full gallop and then dying, this time the rally looks like the real deal. If and when it pushes above 1824,60, we may have to trade disappointment for tedium, however, since supply is thick above that peak all the way up to 1900. Depending on how quickly buyers chew through it, we could be looking at the long-awaited move that would take gold above $2000 and keep going.

Gold took its biggest leap in recent memory Friday. Is it time to ratchet up our skepticism? Even more suspicious is that the rally was triggered by news with no real meaning: 260,100 jobs added to the economy in October. However, what is ostensibly bullish about bullion's hysteria is that it came following the third low to have tested a 1622.40 Hidden Pivot support that has gotten pounded since late September. A durable bottom may be in, but let's stipulate that the futures push above the 'external' peak at 1787.30 recorded on October 4 before we start trusting the uptrend. If you are inclined to trade the move regardless of where it might lead, please say so in the chat room -- preferably with a strategy to offer. ______ UPDATE (Nov 10, 8:19 p.m.): The rally pushed past two 'external' peaks today, generating the most impressive impulse leg since February on the daily chart. There is an opportunity for buyers to rack up a third 'external' -- all without a retracement -- further shortening the odds that this move is the start of a significant trend change.

Gold's not-so-heroic struggle over the last month to hold above the 1622.90 target of the pattern shown looks doomed. In the meantime, as we've learned over and over, we shouldn't get too excited when the futures pop for a $30-$40 gain on a given day, since the move is practically guaranteed to be just a tease. So that we don't get lulled into missing a bullish turn, however unexpected, I'll set a screen alert at 1691.40, just above an external peak of middling importance recorded on October 11.

There's no compelling reason to trust Friday's strong upthrust, but because it was robustly impulsive on the hourly chart, we can't afford to ignore it either.  I'd suggest staking out a tentative long position using the reverse pattern shown. The point 'c' high is just a placeholder at the moment, and you should raise it if the futures make a higher top on Sunday night. Buying should be done at the resulting midpoint Hidden Pivot (currently at 1648.50), using either a stop-loss no wider than 1.00 point, or with an rABC pattern on the lesser bar charts that risks even less theoretically. If you want to paper-trade in order to improve your feel for reverse-pattern set-ups, please note that the conventional stop-loss lie exactly 4.90 points beneath the entry price, predicated on a rally target $10 above it. _______ UPDATE (Oct 24, 12:28 a.m. EDT): A false start and raggedy price action have altered the prospectus for this evening, offering better odds for bottom-fishing D=1646.30 of this pattern than any Hidden Pivot level above it, including the already well-chewed 'p'. ______ UPDATE (Oct 24, 4:56 p.m.): Cancel, the trade, since the futures have been acting like they know D=1646.30 is there. A bullish bias is warranted nonetheless, but price action has been too squirrelly for me to offer day-in-advance trading guidance. _______ UPDATE (Oct 26, 11:53 p.m.): Today's spike to the red line (p=1678.80) confirmed this bullish pattern and its D target at 1736.40. A decisive push past it in the next day or two would shorten the odds that D will be reached. 

Don't get your hopes up that gold is going to make an important bottom any time soon. It had a chance to do so with the robust leap it took on September 28 from within a millimeter of the 1619 Hidden Pivot target shown in the chart. But the subsequent rally, which took a week to play out, fell just shy of a 1646 peak recorded three weeks earlier, narrowly failing to create an impulse leg of daily-chart degree. It would have been the first such occurrence in eight months and a welcome sign for beleaguered bulls. Alas, more disappointment seems likely if the December contract drops below 1619. That would turn the would-be impulse leg into a merely corrective one, sending gold groping for a bottom at, best case, 1600.

Gold rallied on two consecutive days last week, but I'd caution against getting your hopes too high. For one, the rally occurred off a 1622 low that bearishly exceeded the 'D' target of a clear and compelling downtrending pattern. For two, the down-leg that created that low is strongly impulsive, having exceeded no fewer than three important 'internal' lows recorded since early in 2021.  That implies that this rally is merely corrected and should be viewed as such unless it exceeds the 1824.60 'external' peak from August 12. And thirdly, the futures missed a crystal-clear 1750 rally target before turning down last week. That said, the hourly chart remains mildly bullish and can be traded with that bias, especially if buyers get second wind and push the December contract above September 12's 1746 peak this week. _______ UPDATE (Oct 13, 5:30): Yeah sure, that was the bottom.