Gold

Buyers handled the 1907.10 Hidden Pivot resistance with ease, then closed comfortably above the 1910 top of a daunting supply zone created when gold was distributed in May and June ahead of a $200 downdraft. This all but guarantees more robust upside, presumably with a test of $2000 that has beckoned since last spring. We can trade the rally as low-risk opportunities arise, the first of which could come from a small peak (i.e., look-to-the-lefter) at 1943.70 recorded in late April.

March Gold's tortuous climb to a 1907.10 Hidden Pivot target continued last week in the accustomed way: an impressive leap followed by exhaustive backing and filling, The futures have signaled only one 'mechanical' buy at the green line, and it went on to produce a theoretical profit of about $2,200 per contract. A second such signal if gold relapses would be worth bottom-fishing, although my gut feeling is that the implied trek to D would be a messy, tedious slog, assuming the target is achieved, Although that still seems likely, it is not a given because of the difficulty the March contract has had surmounting midpoint resistance. ______ UPDATE (Jan 6, 11:24 p.m.): No change. Feb Gold remains on track for a run-up to at least 1907.10, a Hidden Pivot target that has kept us confidently on the right side of the trend for more than a month. Let's keep our fingers crossed and hope that bulls blow the 'D' target to smithereens when they first connect with it. _______ UPDATE (Jan 12, 11:47 p.m.): This morning's lunatic leap came within a split hair (i.e., 0.50) of fulfilling the longstanding target at 1907.10. Anyone who shorted there should have taken a partial profit on the subsequent $19 dive. The shallow pullback so far suggests bulls are not finished, 

Nearly three weeks of consolidation may have doused the flames from November's volcanic eruption, but the labored ups and downs over that period haven't diminished the odds that the next bull leg will hit 1907.10. The target, a Hidden Pivot resistance of daily-chart degree, is shown in the inset. It became no worse than an even-odds bet to be reached last week when the futures briefly poked above the midpoint resistance (p) at 1820.30. They subsequently missed triggering a mechanical buy at the green line (x-1776.90), but the trade will still be viable when trading resumes Sunday evening. With implied entry risk of around $17,000 on four contracts, this one is for subscribers who know how to cut that to $1500 or less using 'camouflage'. The green line should not be construed as a support or a target; it is just a reference point we use to do certain types of trades. _______ UPDATE (Dec 23): The 'mechanical' buy at 1776.90 noted above is still valid and carries the same caveats. _______ UPDATE (Dec 27, 10:27 p.m.): The C-D leg has become so labored and punitive that I am no longer recommending a 'mechanical' buy on a pullback to x. The 1907.10 target remains theoretically viable nonetheless.

The tortuous move toward an 1858.20 rally target broached here last week is living up to expectations, sapping bulls' energy with swoons that are being recouped only with a lot of grunting and wheezing.  The target still looks like a good bet to be reached, however, and we should remain open to the possibility that it won't impede buyers for long. If they can close above it for two consecutive days after first touching it, we'd shift our sights up to the next significant Hidden Pivot resistance, 1907.10 (120-min, A=1642.30 on 11/3. _______ UPDATE (Dec 16, 12:35): The Feb contract would trip the second 'mechanical' buy in two weeks if it falls to the green line (x=1776.90), stop 1733.40).  With $17,000 of entry risk on four contracts, this one is recommended only if your 'camouflage' skills are up to snuff. All others should paper-trade the opportunity to learn how it works (or doesn't, occasionally.)

The February Comex contract ended the week with an effortless upswing that fell a tad shy of the pink line, a p2 secondary Hidden Pivot at 1827.00. Assuming the confidence of buyers hasn't diminished over the weekend, we should expect them to reach the 1858.20 D target by no later than midweek. A pullback in the meantime to the red line (p=1795.90) would trigger a 'mechanical' buy, stop 1775.10, that could be traded using an impulsive 'camouflage' trigger on the 5-minute chart. ______ UPDATE (Dec 5, 4:23 p.m.): The gratuitous viciousness of today's selloff is telling us that too many were too bullish when the day began.  The 'mechanical' trade would be $6400 in the red if done conventionally (not recommended), although the position has so far avoided getting stopped out by a heart-stopping $3. A less risky 'mechanical' buy would trigger at the green line (x=1764.70), but I would suggest this only for subscribers with the Hidden Pivot chops to cut the risk down to no more than $1,200 or so (on four contracts).

Friday's high surpassed a look-to-the-left peak recorded a week earlier, refreshing the bullish impulsiveness of the intraday charts. The original chart contained a bad print down at 1719.00, but cleaning it up has produced a serviceable pattern with a midpoint resistance at 1760.30 that can serve as a minimum objective. A further run-up to D=1774.60 would become an odds-on bet if buyers shred their way past 1760 -- or better yet, close above it for two consecutive days. ______ UPDATE (Nov 28, 9:57 p.m.): Here's a fresh chart that salvages a bullish outlook despite today's nasty reversal. It also treats the 1719.00 low of last Wednesday's wack-o downdraft as though it actually happened, which appears to be the case. The chart has signaled a so-so 'mechanical'  buy at x=1740.30 (stop 1718.90) off an intraday high that did not quite reach our sweet spot around 1772.00. ______ UPDATE (Nov 29, 11:02 a.m.): Here's an update on that last chart. It shows the February contract with a D target at 1818.50. Precise play off p=1776.00  suggests this pattern will work well for trading and assessing trend strength. It has already yielded a 'mechanical' buy at the green line that could have been worth as much as $2000 per contract overnight.

The steep ascent from the 1618 low recorded on November 3 has enough power to all but guarantee another big leg up once the initial leg has been fully corrected.  It surpassed no fewer than five prior peaks, three of them 'external', without a visible correction on the daily chart.  So that we don't let expectations get too far ahead of reality, I've projected a rally target at 1907.60 that uses a somewhat conservative 'reverse' pattern. In the meantime, a pullback to the green line (x=1690.60) would generate an appealing 'mechanical' buy signal. The rally may prove too strong to gift us with such an opportunity, but we should be prepared to act if the futures swoon.

Gold has been spitting fire for the last two weeks, so it's doubtful buyers will be deterred by the weighty' external' peak at 1824.60 looming just above. For all the times bullion has disappointed us, reaching a full gallop and then dying, this time the rally looks like the real deal. If and when it pushes above 1824,60, we may have to trade disappointment for tedium, however, since supply is thick above that peak all the way up to 1900. Depending on how quickly buyers chew through it, we could be looking at the long-awaited move that would take gold above $2000 and keep going.

Gold took its biggest leap in recent memory Friday. Is it time to ratchet up our skepticism? Even more suspicious is that the rally was triggered by news with no real meaning: 260,100 jobs added to the economy in October. However, what is ostensibly bullish about bullion's hysteria is that it came following the third low to have tested a 1622.40 Hidden Pivot support that has gotten pounded since late September. A durable bottom may be in, but let's stipulate that the futures push above the 'external' peak at 1787.30 recorded on October 4 before we start trusting the uptrend. If you are inclined to trade the move regardless of where it might lead, please say so in the chat room -- preferably with a strategy to offer. ______ UPDATE (Nov 10, 8:19 p.m.): The rally pushed past two 'external' peaks today, generating the most impressive impulse leg since February on the daily chart. There is an opportunity for buyers to rack up a third 'external' -- all without a retracement -- further shortening the odds that this move is the start of a significant trend change.