Gold

Gold has pushed past a 1515.60 Hidden Pivot target that had been two months in coming, suggesting there is still significant buying power remaining to be spent. However, because I've raised a cautionary note with respect to the mining stocks, we should treat the gold futures a little more cautiously than we have been lately. For now, that means using the 1559.90 pivot shown as a minimum upside objective for the near term. The target is clear and compelling, and so an easy move past it would be signaling a continuation of the uptrend. _______ UPDATE (Aug 13, 8:15 p.m.):  Here is the pattern I am using in December Gold at the moment. It will become more authoritative if and when x=1522.40 is touched. The stock market's nutty exuberance this morning dangerously underestimates the risks of Hong Kong. _______ UPDATE (Aug 14, 9:47 p.m.) Next stop: 1555.90, my minimum upside projection at the moment, as well as the midpoint resistance associated with D=1622.90.

Assuming the short-squeeze bounce in the broad averages and FAANGs is about to get legs -- a possibility I've raised in today's The Morning Line -- bullion will be under pressure. The institutional chimpanzees who build and dismantle portfolios can only follow simple instructions that have a single theme. One such theme unfortunately is that when one is buying stocks, one is necessarily selling bullion. Adding to my newfound caution in gold (and silver) is that today's rally hit a Hidden Pivot target at 1515.60 that has been two months in coming. The slight overshoot is ostensibly bullish and would become still moreso if gold closes above today's high (1522.70) for the next two days. In any event, we'll see what surprises crop up before we draw any strong conclusions. _______ UPDATE (Aug 8, 10:34 p.m.): Gold held its own today with stocks on a mini-rampage. This seems bullish, but let's see how things play out ahead of the weekend. _______ UPDATE (Aug 11): Gold got little boost when the Dow was trading almost 300 points lower on Friday, so we should be prepared for bullion to turn weak if the broad averages reverse and rally. First, let's see how things open Sunday evening.

Shifting to the December contract yields a 1515.60 target equivalent to one at 1504.00 we'd been using for the June. The rally has been labored, implying there can be no guarantees the target will be reached. Regardless, the 'mechanical' buy signal from two weeks ago, and then again last Wednesday, was valid, even if only a handful of Rick's Picks subscribers reported getting aboard. Yet another pullback to the green line would offer a third opportunity to profit, but I won't recommend the trade because it is taking the futures too long to complete the big pattern's C-D leg. Prospects for a successful belated entry would improve, however, if the futures were to pull back from the secondary pivot (shown in the chart as a pink line at 1486.00). Stay tuned to the chat room if you care. _______ UPDATE (Aug 5, 8:59 p.m.): Bulls have got the futures up nearly $10 tonight. This usually sets up gold for a smackdown before the regular-session opening. But if something has indeed changed, don't be surprised if the good guys hold onto tonight's gains and even add a little. _______ UPDATE (Aug 6, 10:15 p.m.): The smackdown did happen -- around 1:00 a.m. -- but bulls recouped the loss intraday and are bludgeoning the bad guys Tuesday night with a so-far 18-point gain. The rally targets a minimum 1506.00, or 1511.80 if any higher. Let's hope the bad guys get bloodied badly enough that they'll stop disrespecting gold at hours of the day when they imagine it defenseless. 

For years, gold's corrections have been brutal, and that is why many erstwhile bulls have not rushed to buy this rally. They have instead been waiting for a nasty pullback in order to load up at bargain prices. But Mr Market has not obliged. Instead, retracements have been shallow and rallies steep. The latter have often occurred after-hours, but in one recent instance via a trampoline bounce early in the day. By playing hard-to-get, gold is showing the most encouraging signs we have seen in a long, long while. This evening the August Comex futures have uncorked a 25-pointer, impaling a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 1444.40 that is tied to a 1504.00 target first identified here weeks ago.  That is my minimum upside objective at the moment and it should be yours as well if you trade this vehicle. If you want to see how some pros are boldly trading the move so far using GDX call options, stop by the Rick's Picks Trading Room. You can access it by taking a free two-week trial subscription. Simply provide your name and email address at the top of the home page and you will have instant access to the entire site. No credit card is necessary. _______ UPDATE (Jul 30, 10:17 p.m.): Gold would need to fall $45 to invalidate the 1504 rally target noted above (click here for the chart). Stranger things have happened, but even that would not negate the bullish look of the daily chart.  In any event, we'll avoid the fray ahead of the Fed's "momentous" announcement concerning an expected 25-basis-point easing._______ UPDATE (Jul 31, 10:07 p.m.): The moderate selloff tripped a 'mechanical' buy signal at 1409.08, stop 1384.70. The trade is somewhat riskier than we should prefer, since the pullback from the top of the

August Gold pulled a Pearl Harbor on bears and skeptics Tuesday, reversing early morning weakness with a surprisingly sharp rally. I'd expected another two weeks of corrective action myself after bullion's impressive run-up in June. However, the chart (inset) shows the futures to be bound most immediately for at least 1446.90. If so, that would be a new recovery high and an encouraging sign that even bigger things lie ahead. Specifically, a 1504.00 target would be in play if the August contract closes for two consecutive days above 1444.40 or trades more than $12 above that price intraday. Please note as well that a $150 plunge from around 1460 would not be the disaster it might seem at the time; rather, it would set up a textbook buying opportunity according to the proprietary rules Rick's Picks subscribers follow for 'mechanical' trades. ______ UPDATE (Jul 7, 5:05 p.m. ET): Last week's surge peaked just shy of the 1444.40 midpoint resistance, implying that bulls have run out of steam for the moment. Here's a chart that shows it. The futures will still need to close above 1440,.00 for two straight days, or trade more than $12 above this Hidden Pivot intraday, in order to clinch a follow-through to 1504.00. In the meantime, there is no 'mechanical buy' set-up to use on the daily chart, since the rally topped well below our sweet spot before the pullback. _______ UPDATE (Jul 10, 9:29 p.m.): The futures are in the third week of the correction I'd forecast above, seemingly eager to break out of a 60-point consolidation range. The pivot at 1444.40 remains crucial to the completion of this task.

August Gold pulled a Pearl Harbor on bears and skeptics Tuesday, reversing early morning weakness with a surprisingly sharp rally. I'd expected another two weeks of corrective action myself after bullion's impressive run-up in June. However, the chart (inset) shows the futures to be bound most immediately for at least 1446.90. If so, that would be a new recovery high and an encouraging sign that even bigger things lie ahead. Specifically, a 1504.00 target would be in play if the August contract closes for two consecutive days above 1444.40 or trades more than $12 above that price intraday. Please note as well that a $150 plunge from around 1460 would not be the disaster it might seem at the time; rather, it would set up a textbook buying opportunity according to the proprietary rules Rick's Picks subscribers follow for 'mechanical' trades. ______ UPDATE (Jul 7, 5:05 p.m. ET): Last week's surge peaked just shy of the 1444.40 midpoint resistance, implying that bulls have run out of steam for the moment. Here's a chart that shows it. The futures will still need to close above 1440,.00 for two straight days, or trade more than $12 above this Hidden Pivot intraday, in order to clinch a follow-through to 1504.00. In the meantime, there is no 'mechanical buy' set-up to use on the daily chart, since the rally topped well below our sweet spot before the pullback.

August Gold's attempt to reverse from a morning sell-off prompted a subscriber to ask in the Rick's Picks trading room whether bullion is already getting second wind.  I doubt it, since June's sensational run-up was too steep to sustain and will likely require a breather of perhaps 2-3 weeks to recharge. But I do expect the uptrend to resume after a proper pullback because this month's surge decisively exceeded clear Hidden Pivot resistances at 1412 and 1432. This is usually a reliable sign that the dominant trend will continue, and it is quite clear in this instance.  Because the pattern took ten months to play out, it would be surprising -- and quite bullish -- if the futures do a '180' and blow past the 1432.70 peak within the next few days. Anything's possible, so we'll simply wait for gold to do its thing and to tell us what's on its mind. _______ UPDATE (Jul 1, 7:16 p.m. ET): Expect more weakness, since the futures failed to get airborne after tripping a 'counterintuitive' buy signal. Most immediately they could fall to around 1340.00 before picking up structural support from some prior lows recorded in mid-June. But if you want a precise Hidden Pivot target where a tradeable low is possible, use 1356.30 (60-minute, a=1427.80 on 6/27; b=1384.70). 

Although the rally is growing more convincing by the day, the chart shows some key benchmarks that will need to be exceeded to buttress the case for a sustained move higher. Specifically, there is a Hidden Pivot resistance at 1455.20 that we should expect to show some stopping power. There are also 'external' peaks from 2013 at, respectively, 1432.40 and 1487.90 that must be surpassed in order to refresh the bullish impulsiveness of the weekly chart. (The lower was missed by less than a dollar today.) Because the chart is a composite of many expired contracts, the Hidden Pivot levels and peaks are not exact.  But they should be close enough to actual -- i.e., within $3-$5 -- to be useful for gauging the strength of the rally and identifying its obstacles. ______ UPDATE (Jun 25, 8:12 p.m.): One obstacle overcome (1432.20), two more to go. But by exceeding the first, buyers generated a fresh impulse leg on the daily chart that will make any retracement holding above 1273.20 corrective and therefore potentially buy-able.

Bullion’s powerful rally this week has kicked this popular mining-stock vehicle into high gear. I haven’t tracked it in quite a while but aim to do so now, provided it remains feisty and interesting. In that regard, GDX looks like it’s about to ratchet up the interest-level, although not in a way we might have preferred. Notice that Thursday’s energetic short-squeeze brought the ETF within inches of a target at 25.58. This Hidden Pivot resistance can be used as a minimum upside objective for now, but don’t expect GDX to pop through it on the first try. More likely is a pullback of sufficient magnitude that you should consider taking a partial profit or doing covered writes in the range 25.42 – 25.70 if you are long.  Please note that if buyers should blow past D=25.58 with ease, that would imply that the target of a bigger pattern is in play. In this case, it would be 36.67 (!), a Hidden Pivot whose provenance goes back to a low at 12.40 recorded early in 2016. The lower target corresponds to one at 1412 for Comex August Gold that I disseminated to subscribers several weeks ago._______ UPDATE (Jun 24, 8:52 p.m.): Buyers shredded the 25.58 pivot, leaving little doubt about the underlying strength and potential of this move. _______ UPDATE (Jun 25, 8:28 p.m.): I neglected to mention an important Hidden Pivot resistance at 26.98 that can serve as a minimum upside target for the near term (i.e., the next 3-5 days).  It is the C-D midpoint tied to the 36.67 target noted above. Here's a chart that shows it. _______ UPDATE (Jun 26, 9:42 p.m.): GDX tripped a theoretical sell signal at 25.47 that implies it will fall to at least 25.21, or possibly to 24.67, if it slips today.