Gold

I've labeled the impulse leg shown in the chart 'promising' because the pattern's point 'B' low crushed an external low the way reliable A-B legs are supposed to. So what does it promise?  Two things of value to us: 1) a profitable 'mechanical' short if the futures should rally to the green line (x=2696.00); and 2) the prospect of bottom-fishing when D=2500.00 -- a logical minimum downside target -- is reached. Because a gaggle of village idiots will be trained on round-number support there, we shouldn't count too heavily on a precisely tradable turn.  There is also a chance of that occurring from the secondary pivot, p2=2565.30. However, bottom-fishing there would need to be done with a 'counterintuitive' (i.e., rABC) trigger. Nudge me in the chat room for guidance in real time if I'm around. _______ UPDATE (Jan 2, 2:18 p.m. EST): I don’t trust today’s rally, but there is no percentage in trying to intercept it. The Feb contract is currently trading at 2668.30 and looks likely to achieve 2722.40. That would still leave it shy of December’s 2761.30 peak, let alone the record 2826.30 recorded on 10/30. One trade to recommend: buy a dip to 2628.10, stop 2596.70. Since that implies $12,000 of risk on four contracts, you would need to fashion a small-pattern trigger (aka ‘camouflage’) to cut the risk by 95% or more.

The three-day dance around p=2630.70 left me mildly bearish when the week ended, but not so bearish that I would recommend a 'mechanical' short at the green line. Although the bounce to the line will have occurred off our sweet spot midway between p and p2, the tedious, irregular C-D leg let off enough steam to flatten A-B's bearish energy. That energy is what makes 'mechanical' trades work and the reason why this gambit is unlikely to offer the edge we seek. In any event, the D target at 2500.00 remains my worst-case low between now and December 31. It will also provide good odds for bottom-fishing with a tight stop-loss.

The three-day dance around p=2630.70 left me mildly bearish when the week ended, but not so bearish that I would recommend a 'mechanical' short at the green line. Although the bounce to the line will have occurred off our sweet spot midway between p and p2, the tedious, irregular C-D leg let off enough steam to flatten A-B's bearish energy. That energy is what makes 'mechanical' trades work and the reason why this gambit is unlikely to offer the edge we seek. In any event, the D target at 2500.00 remains my worst-case low between now and December 31. It will also provide good odds for bottom-fishing with a tight stop-loss.

We'll find out soon whether Mr Slammy has bigger ambitions than the so-far two-day thrashing he has administered to gold futures. The small reverse pattern shown yields a target at 2643.00 that is probably the best bulls can hope for. You can bottom-fish there with a 'camouflage' trigger created from five-minute-or-less bars, but if this 'hidden' support is easily exceeded, brace for more downside to at least 2628.10. That's the midpoint Hidden Pivot support of a big pattern (A=2826.30 on 10/3) associated with a D target at 2497.40, a worst-case target for 2024. ______ UPDATE (Dec 17, 12:52 p.m.):  The futures have turned higher from within an inch of the 2643.00 minimum downside target given above.  A relapse would encounter 'voodoo' support near 2632.70 that can be bottom-fished with a small-pattern (aka 'camouflage') trigger. Otherwise, the so-far modest bounce will need to touch 2683.50 to suggest a recovery and become interesting.

Gold served up a second consecutive week of slop, making it difficult to guess what's on the minds of the thieves who manipulate it for a living (legally and with the Guvmint's complicity, of course).  However, enduring uptrends tend to produce relative weak countertrends, and that describes this one so far. It has twice penetrated to Hidden Pivot midpoint support at 2647.90, but without sending the futures down to the pattern's 2605.30 target. They could still get there, but bears might be drained of energy by then. Alternatively, a pop through C=2690.50 would signal a resumption of the long-term bull trend. Worst case: a two-day close beneath 2617.50, portending more slippage to as low as 2487.00 (daily chart, A= 2826.00 on 10-31-24).

The December contract cheated us out of a profitable 'mechanical' buy at the green line when it erupted for a 60-point rally without having quite touched our 'launching pad' at x=2598.80. Price action is bullish but not quite bullish enough to make the bounce a shoo-in to achieve the pattern's 2770.70 target.  We'll therefore begin the week without the usual confidence and clarity, so check for updates if there's any movement, since that cannot but shed light on the strength and resilience of the uptrend. My gut feeling is that it will achieve d=2770.70, but without making it look easy. _______ UPDATE (Dec 3, 3:58 p.m.): More sideways tedium this week has added nothing useful to an indecisive picture. I am proffering this chart nonetheless as a companion to the update moments ago of the Silver tout immediately below. Both need an upsurge through their respective midpoint Hidden Pivot resistances to signal the onset of a meaningful rally.

Last week's powerful surge made the futures an easy bet to reach the 2724.40 target we used to stay confidently abreast of the trend. The target, a reverse pattern Hidden Pivot resistance, is shortable, preferably if you know how to set up a small-pattern (i.e., 'camouflage') entry trigger. If the rally easily exceeds d=2724.40, use 2769.00 as a minimum upside objective, and expect it to work precisely. It is calculated by sliding 'a' down to the 2580.80 low recorded on September 18. That is what I refer to as a 'locked' point 'a', since there are no lower lows to be found that would still yield a reverse pattern. _______ UPDATE (Nov 25, 1:42 p.m.): Something has changed, since nasty old Mr Slammy has been showing up too frequently in the last month. Today's gratuitous pounding triggered a 'mechanical' buy at the red line (p=2656.10) that we will shun because of gold's punk behavior of late.  The trade is holding so far, since the intraday low at 2617.90 is $1.30 above the textbook stop-loss.  However, I'll recommend bottom-fishing only at the green line (x=2598.80), provided you understand the trade and can manage entry risk tightly. Also, don't expect the bounce to reach the D target at 2770.7. This one should be played for a one-level gain, from x to p, since it's possible an important top was seen with October 30's print at 2801.8, inches from a key target I'd billboarded months earlier.

I'd suggested paper-trading this vehicle by bottom-fishing with a $17 trigger interval. In theory, if gold's wrenching downtrend is about to reverse, the trade should produce an easy winner. In actuality, it stopped out the first opportunity and is in the throes of a profitable second. But the bounce, for starters, will need to exceed d=2608.50 to imply a recovery with the potential to achieve a new all-time high. My target above late October's 2801.80 record would be 2940.10. For now, though, we should look for the futures to work their way lower. If they fall to the green line (x=2497.50) of this pattern -- the one projecting to 2940 -- it would trigger a theoretically appealing 'mechanical' buy. In practice, however, it would be akin to catching the falling piano, and I am therefore recommending the trade only to subscribers who know how to pare the risk down to literal chump change. If the trade gets stopped out below 2350.00, wrecking the pattern, it would imply that bullion is not in a correction, but a bear market. _______ UPDATE (Nov 21, 1:22 p.m.):  With an intraday high today of 2676, December Gold is enjoying a robust bounce from 2541, well above the worst-case low I’d projected above. This is bullish and puts the 2940.10 rally target credibly back in play. More immediately, my minimum objective for this so-far corrective bounce is 2724.00. That is a 'd' Hidden Pivot (a=2618.80 on 10/10) and a crucial point of resistance that will enable us to judge whether the rally is for real.

Gold futures have taken a nasty hit since topping on October 30 within 1.60 of a well-advertised Hidden Pivot target of mine at 2803.40. Even so, the downdraft has yet to generate an impulse leg on the daily chart by exceeding two prior lows. That would occur with a print at 2618.70, but even then, its putative power could be diminished if the bounce from Thursday's low gets a little more loft. We'll give bulls the benefit of the doubt as the new week begins by assuming a 'mechanical' buy at the red line produces a big winner. The target would be 2940.10 (see inset), and the initial stop-loss would be at 2546.70. Please note that the trade has yet to trigger, since the selloff has gone no lower than 2650.30.  Paper-trade this one only if your Hidden Pivot chops are up to snuff. _______ UPDATE (Nov 11, 12:08 p.m.): This morning's avalanche brought the futures down to the red line, so I'll suggest using a $17 trigger interval to get long. This is bigger than I would prefer, but it will diminish the chance of a false signal. With a so-far low of 2619.20, the 'buy' signal would occur on a 2636.20 print. Your first profit-taking objective would be at p=2653.20, where d=2687.20 (60-min, a=2650.30 on 11/6).  This is a paper trade for all but the most intrepid Pivoteers. I am mainly interested in determining whether bullion has topped for the long term. The trade set-up I am suggesting is a good way to answer that question, and a rally that exceeds 'd' would imply the answer is 'no'. Alternatively, if the rally dies at 'p', that would be a very discouraging sign.