Gold

An 1105.80 downside target has obtained since November 18, when Feb Gold tripped a menacing sell signal just above 1200.  On redrawing the chart, however, I find that the target should have been given as 1108.70, with 1086.60 as an alternative if Hidden Pivot support at the higher number fails.  Were that last number to be reached, gold will have given up 90% of the gains achieved since the rally commenced exactly a year ago. And if the 1055.20 low that marked the beginning of the six-month rally to 1387.10 is breached, it would return our focus to an 820 target first aired here in 2013 when the futures were trading around 1280. However, I won't pull it out of mothballs until such time as 1055.20 gives way, since there's always a possibility that Mr. Market will test bulls to their utmost before the long-term uptrend dating back nearly 15 years resumes. _______ UPDATE (Dec 26, 10:45 p.m. ET): Trading in gold has resumed Monday evening with a weakly impulsive rally.  Night owls looking to get aboard should consider the following pattern. It is slightly camouflage-y at the moment because 'b' exceeded some prior peaks only marginally: a=1132.80 (12/26 at 9:00 p.m.); b=1138.20 (?).

Gold's relentless plunge appeared to be on-track to hit the 1149.40 target shown within the next 3-5 days. If that Hidden Pivot support should give way easily -- meaning, be exceeded on first contact by more than $1.50 or so -- we'll likely be looking at a further fall to 1105.80.  The selloff was too steep to generate any 'mechanical' shorting opportunities over the last several hours, but you should look for such opportunities on charts of smaller degree, starting with 15-minute bars.  Presently, that would imply shorting from x=1173.70 using this pattern: A=1188.60 (11/30 at 8:45 a.m.); B= 1171.30. _______ UPDATE (Dec 3, 12:56 p.m. EST): No change. Feb Gold would need to rally to 1223.60 to get out of immediate jeopardy. That corresponds to a price peak at 1223.50 recorded on Nov 22. _______ UPDATE (Dec 7, 8:546 p.m.): Gold isn't acting as feisty as silver, but the March contract at least generated a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart with Wednesday's moderate rally. It projects to 1189.10 (a=1167.20 on 12/6), but buyers will need to do a little better, pushing this vehicle above December 4's 1190.20 'external' peak, to refresh the bullish energy of the intraday charts._______ UPDATE (Dec 8, 9:54 p.m.): Today's swan dive killed the encouraging look of the hourly chart. Now it would take nothing less than 1190.30 to put bulls back on track. Regardless, the 1149.40 target given above, as well as the one at 1105.80, remain viable. _______ UPDATE (Dec 13, 9:31 p.m.): Monday's low at 1152.50 is close enough to the 1149.40 target given above that we might look for an upturn from these levels. However, the rally would need to surpass 1173.80, and soon, to have bullish implications for the near term.

It's late Sunday night, and the futures are up $18 at the moment.  To avoid having emotions cloud our judgment, however, I'll suggest viewing the rally with cynical detachment rather than hope. In the first place, the move has come off a low that crushed some important Hidden Pivot supports at, respectively, 1198.00 and 1194.00. And for two, the downtrend that preceded it breached every significant low recorded since February. That makes the downtrend powerfully impulsive on the daily chart. Under the circumstances, we should look for opportune spots to get short rather than watching prayerfully from the sidelines. A rally exceeding the small peak at 1224.00 would turn the daily chart bullish again, at least in theory, but we should set the bar much higher to be sure. Specifically, I'll stipulate that the futures close for two consecutive bars above the red line before we wax enthusiastic again about gold's long-term prospects. That's $130 above current levels, so bulls have their work cut out for them.

Thursday's selloff exceeded not only the 1207.30 downside target we've been using for nearly a week, but also the watershed low at 1207.00 recorded back in May. This is technically very damaging and would become still moreso if the selloff goes on to exceed February's 1194.00 external low within the next few days. That would added to the imputed power of the downtrend, leaving only one last line of defense for bulls at 1198.00, the maximum downside target that can be projected using the daily chart (a=1383.50 on 7-11-16; b=1243.20 0n 10-07-16). _______ UPDATE (Nov 20, 8:07 p.m. EST): The December contract touched a low of 1201.30 on Friday, putting it on very thin ice. The supports flagged above at 1198.00 and 1194.00 remain crucial to the immediate picture, and their breach over the next day or two would have very bearish implications for what remains of 2016. Alternatively, a rally touching 1219.00 today would offer a smidgen of encouragement.

Even after plummeting to the 1233.70 target I'd flagged the night before, gold looked so awful on Friday that I posted two still-lower Hidden Pivot targets in the chat room: 1223.90 and 1207.30. The first was breached by $3.60 before the session ended, implying more slippage is likely. The lower number can serve as a worst-case target for the near term, but please note that there's an additional 'hidden' support at 1217.20 where a bounce could occur. _______ UPDATE (Nov 14, 11:18 p.m. EST): Subscribers reported leveraging some 'camouflage' patterns to get long Monday, and the futures were about to trip another minor buy signal tonight (a=1219.80 at 6:30 p.m.), but the bigger picture still warrants caution. Bulls could breathe a sigh of relief if the rally hits 1237.10 on Tuesday. _______ UPDATE (Nov 15, 7:33 p.m.): Zzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

Gold's Whoopee Cushion rally on election night is going to take a heavy psychological toll on traders, most particularly bulls who got trapped buying at or near the fleeting top. This parallels what occurred in stocks, when DaBoyz pulled their bids on ginned-up fears of a Trump victory, sending the Mini-Dow plummeting 900 points overnight. Bears got trapped so badly by this maneuver that they were easily goaded into pushing the futures into a parabolic rally the next day that recouped overnight losses plus another than 300+ points. Gold has yet not broken down in corresponding fashion, but bulls will be so dispirited over the gratuitous hump on the charts that it will look like Everest in the days ahead. From a technical standpoint, we might expect the futures to ease lower, to at least 1233.70 over the near term. That target is easy to find on the daily chart using these coordinates: A=1347.80 on 9/22; B=1243.20; and C=1338.30.

The futures relapsed without having gotten past the higher of two bullish benchmarks posted here yesterday. The subsequent fall beneath a 1276.70 midpoint Hidden Pivot support makes more weakness to d=1261.80 a good bet at the moment, although one could also play for a bounce from that target.  If buyers fail to generate much of one, that would indicate still more weakness in the days ahead -- presumably to structural support in the range 1240 to 1260. A surprise win by Trump would probably send prices higher, but be wary of any rally that falls shy of 1331.50, where a key peak was recorded September 20 on the way down..

Gold did not rebound as sharply as silver off Monday's lows, even if the December contract bullishly failed to achieve a 1277.10 downside target before turning around. The reversal has yet to exceed any 'external' peaks on the hourly chart (see inset), however, and it will now take a strong push to achieve this feat. The first peak lies at 1289.50, but buyers would need to get past the second, at 1296.50, to suggest they've got the moxie to go on the offensive. Significantly higher targets would then become plausible, but we'll look for a more modest show of strength before we even consider those targets.

Thursday's wacky, Whoopee Cushion bounce came off a low that missed my target by $1.80. The premature upturn was speculatively bullish, but the rally became manifestly so when it started exceeding prior peaks on the intraday charts. We don't want to be too presumptuous, however, considering how violently bulls got shaken out, so I'll suggest entry strategies that use small ABC patterns at the rightmost edge of the chart. The one shown, with an A low at 1297.80, has a play left to 1306.60, but leveraging this set-up could be more trouble than it's worth. Instead, I'll suggest waiting for a fresh A-B thrust that tops out between #1 and #2 before pulling back into a tradable pattern. That's a narrow window to be hoping for, but if we get what we want, the result could be easy pickings. _______ UPDATE (Nov 6, 8:09 p.m. EST): Moments ago, the futures tripped a moderately appealing counterintuitive 'buy' signal by rallying from a deep hole back up to the green line (see chart, a new one). The signal can be 'actualized' in numerous ways, but night owls will probably do best to fashion a 'camouflage' entry trigger on the five-minute chart or less.  Incidentally, the futures have rallied nearly $2 since I began typing this update, attracting more bulls and therefore warranting greater caution.