Gold

The futures seem incapable at the moment of reaching even a modest rally target at 1359.40, so we'll focus on a still-smaller corrective pattern that projects to 1317.60 (see inset). A breach of that Hidden Pivot would be mildly bearish, but even then the futures are likely to pick up support for a bounce near 1310.00, where they've bottomed a couple of times this month.  You can bottom-fish at p or d with a stop-loss as tight as four ticks, but only if you're bored out of your mind and lack the energy to find some other vehicle worth trading on Wednesday._______ UPDATE (Sep 29, 12:36 a.m. ET): Zzzzzzzzzzzz.

You don't need bachelor's degree in Hidden Pivotry to see where December Gold is headed over the very near term. The question is whether bulls will take a breather at the 1359.40 target (see inset), a minor one, or instead brush it aside. I expect at least a small pause of perhaps a day or two, judging from the way the futures have pulled back from the midpoint and secondary pivots (respectively, p and p2) the first time they encountered them. However, if 1359.40 gives way easily, that would strongly suggest that a larger, bullish pattern visible on the weekly chart has begun to assert itself. It has a 1482.90 target (!) and a key resistance (i.e., midpoint pivot) at 1394.20. (A=1207.00 on 6/3/16). A theoretical buy signal has already been tripped at 13459.60, but that is of little practical importance, since the signal came with a stop-loss of more than $2000 per contract. There will be better, far less risky ways to get aboard if December Gold is in fact on its way to 1482.90.  For now, though, let's see how buyers handle the implied resistance at 1359.40. ________ UPDATE (Sep 26, 7:12 p.m. EDT): The feebleness of buyers on Monday did nothing to alter the bullish forecast given above. A decisive push past p2=1346.90 is needed to generate a short-term finishing stroke to 1359.40.________ UPDATE (Sep 27, 10:48 a.m.): Far from pushing decisively above 1346.90, the futures are getting whacked this morning. While this hasn't altered the 1359.40 rally target, it has generated a bearish impulse leg on the hourly chart and cast a cloud over the short-term picture.  Let's see now if the c-d follow-through leg of today's a-b decline turns from the midpoint pivot, as it should if bulls are about to regain their footing.

The rally pattern shown has picked up some hits near p, lending authority and potential precision to the D target at 1359.40. A pullback to the red line, a midpoint pivot at 1334.30, can be bought 'mechanically' with a stop-loss at 1325.90. To cut the implied entry risk of $840 per contract by as much as 80%, you should consider using 'camouflage' to get aboard. This would entail catching a ride on the first, very minor ABC pattern that occurs on the one-minute chart after the red line is touched on the way down.

My last tout focused on a possible 'counterintuitive' buy if gold eased lower, but the potential opportunity shown looks more appealing -- and less risky. Because the a-b impulse leg meets all of our criteria for legitimacy, I am now recommending that you bottom-fish the target shown with a 1301.80 bid for two contracts, stop 1299.80. You can increase the size of your bid if you use 'camouflage' to initiate the trade. If the order fills and goes in the black, cash out half of your contracts at 1307.80 and set a stop-loss that would leave you with at least $1000 profit on the trade no matter what._______ UPDATE (Sep 19, 8:26 p.m. ET): The futures tripped a minor buy signal and then died. It will remain valid nonetheless if there's no dip first below 1315.00.  The target in play is 1324.20, with crucial resistance at 1319.60 (60-min, a=1312.60 on 9/18 at 9:00 p.m. ET; b=1321.80; and c=1315.00. _______ UPDATE (Sep 20, 6:11 p.m.): The futures held above the 1315.00 support, but only barely. The above analysis remains valid nonetheless, although odds of moving bullion quotes higher on a 'Fed day' are never going to be great.

Although gold's six-day slide may have some bulls feeling a little glum, the bigger picture is still quite bullish and suggests that the weakness has been merely corrective. This would still be true even if the futures were to fall beneath the 1305.50 point 'C' low of the pattern shown. And if the futures were to rally exactly $13.10 from some low in the range 1308-1311, that could provide a 'counterintuitive' buy signal that would be almost irresistible. Stay tuned to the chat room and be sure you have checked 'Email Notifications' on your account page, since I will be tracking this potential opportunity in real time. If the signal flashes in the manner described above, our goal will be to find a corresponding 'camouflage' entry with risk very tightly controlled.

The booster stage of today's rally from the depths of a shallow hole was sufficiently impulsive to imply bulls could enjoy a favorable breeze on Tuesday. However, entry strategies, even using camouflage patterns like the one shown, have produced only pain so far. Moreover, the immediate potential for this rally would appear to be no higher than 1340.70, the Hidden Pivot target of the larger ABC pattern shown. It's midpoint pivot lies at 1335.60, but buyers would have to clear that resistance with ease to suggest they're capable of hitting 1340.70 within the next day or two._______ UPDATE (September 13, 9:52 a.m.): The promising rally begun yesterday has laid an egg, dying just three ticks from the 1335.60 midpoint resistance noted above. The futures could conceivably become a 'counterintuitive' buy if a point 'C' low forms above yesterday's bottom (the so-far low at 1325.50 is not quite close enough). However, I would be a cautious buyer at that point rather than an enthusiastic one.

We've had little success bottom-fishing, and the tightly stopped bids I'd suggested would have produced losses of $40 theoretical per contract. Gold futures look less promising at the moment than Silver, since the peak of last week's rally in gold failed by nearly $4 to exceed any external peaks on the daily chart. Also, the recent bottom at 1305.50 overshot a Hidden Pivot correction target by more than $3. Taken together, these small signs of weakness argue for watching from the sidelines on Monday -- unless you are hot to day-trade and can do so with risk under tight control using Hidden Pivots.

The futures blew past the 1346.10 target with ease, implying that an ABC pattern of greater magnitude, with a correspondingly higher target, is driving this rally.  The one shown projects to 1430.80, about 5.6% above current levels. The futures tripped a theoretical buy signal to this number when they hit the green line today. However, the implied $3100 initial stop-loss is reason to look for other, less risky, ways to get aboard. Since only one subscriber reported using the guidance I put out last night to get long, I'll save more-detailed tactics for the chat room on Wednesday, assuming the interest is there. Self-starters can use x, p or p2 to get long 'mechanically', or to generate camouflage buy signals at any of those levels, provided the pullback to them meets our simple criteria for 'mechanical' entries. Note:  This rally looks quite promising.  Notice how it blasted through two external peaks on the daily chart in the space of a single day. If buyers knock off a couple more peaks this week, that would be even more encouraging._______ UPDATE (September 8, 9:05 p.m. EDT): Any lower and we should brace for more corrective action down to at least 1337.50; or thence to 1332.10. Either of these Hidden Pivots can be bottom-fished with a stop-loss as tight as four ticks.

We'll stick with little stuff for now (see inset), since Gold shows no inclination at the moment to fulfill big-picture patterns that remain unambiguously bullish. On the five-minute chart, the December contract tripped a theoretical buy signal on Friday that points to as high as 1346.10 over the near term. A pullback to the green line would offer a 'mechanical' buying opportunity, stop 1319.40, but I'd suggest substituting a 'camouflage' entry if the opportunity arises and you want to reduce initial risk of about $670 by as much as 90%. Odds of reaching the target would shorten if and when the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 1332.80, is decisively penetrated to the upside. As always, a precise stall at the line would confirm the pattern and the target. _______ UPDATE (September 6, 8:42 a.m. EDT): The futures have rallied $14 after tripping a 'mechanical' buy signal on a pullback to the green line (1326.20) Sunday evening around 8:00. I won't establish a tracking position, however, unless I hear from at least two subscribers in the chat room who initiated the trade using either 'camouflage' or a 'mechanical' bid. At the moment, the futures have stalled precisely at the secondary pivot of the pattern, 1339.50.  If and when they get decisively past that 'hidden' resistance, the 1346.10 target flagged above will become an odds-on bet to be achieved, presumably precisely.