Gold

Thursday's bounce precisely from the midpoint Hidden Pivot at 1262.80 is somewhat bullish, but it would become much moreso if the futures were to continue their ascent, exceeding the 1282.50 point 'C' high of the downtending pattern from which 1262.80 was extrapolated. Were that to occur, traders could buy a breakout above C without worrying too much about having to use a 'camouflage' entry or some other such risk-reduction tactic based on the Hidden Pivot Method.  Alternatively, a relapse exceeding 1262.80 to the downside would augur more slippage to at least 1252.95, or possibly to 1243.10 if any lower. ________ UPDATE (May 15, 5:20 p.m. ET): Friday's asphyixiating humdrum changed nothing in the short-term picture, let alone the longer view.

Wednesday's modest rally ws unpersuasive, especially since it came from a low on Tuesday that exceeded a clear Hidden Pivot correction target.  I'll be less skeptical if the futures can push above the 1291.75 midpoint pivot shown in the chart (inset). That would put them on course for a shot at 1325.20 over the near term. All three Hidden Pivot levels -- x, p and p2 -- can be used to get long 'mechanically' provided the set-ups meet our criteria. Please note as well that a rally exceeding 1309.00 would generate a powerful impulse leg on the daily chart by taking out a key peak from January of 2014 that I've labeled 'the Matterhorn'.

Bulls barely kept their heads above water Tuesday and will have their work cut out for them if they are to avoid a dunking. That would require a print at 1277.80, a mere $7 above current levels. The most bullish scenario I could imagine at the moment would be a thrust over the next two days exceeding the 1297.05 midpoint Hidden Pivot of the pattern shown. That would steepen the trajectory of the rally since mid-February while presumably quieting the bearish buzz that seems to attend every bout of weakness lasting more than three days.

The graceful lilt of the rally pattern show should comfort bulls who may have felt like they got mangled by a shredder last week. For all the tortuous chop traders may have experienced intraday, June Gold was showing encouraging signs on Friday when the dust settled. The rally on Friday put the futures on course for a move to as high as 1337.50 next week while also setting up a potential 'mechanical' buy on a pullback to the green line. However, to reduce risk, I would instead suggest bidding at the 1304.05 midpoint pivot once it has been exceeded by at least is $5 for three consecutive hourly bars. You could still try to get long at the green line, but because a 'mechanical' entry there implies initial risk of more than $900 per contract, you should attempt entry only via a 'camouflage' set-up on the 3-minute chart or lower. _______ UPDATE (May 9, 7:15 a.m.): Gold has gotten gratuitously sacked overnight, although the raid has yet to push the June contract beneath the point 'C' low of the bullish pattern noted above. That would take a print at 1270.50, $6.40 below where it is currently trading. It would require a little worse than that, specifically 1266.90, to turn the hourly chart bearishly impulsive. _______ UPDATE (9:03 p.m.): With yesterday's plunge, June Gold has fallen as far as I could have projected using the hourly chart.  Shifting to the daily bars (see inset, a new chart), a promising trendline comes into view that has precisely supported the uptrend since mid-February. Several things could happen now relative to the trendline: 1) the futures could leap anew without pulling back to it. This would shorten the odds that a major bull market has begun; 2) they could retrace to the line, then

In the tout below this one, I've raised a strong cautionary note in GDX, an ETF fund with a portfolio comprising some of the biggest gold miners. On Wednesday, GDX generated a very bearish 'three black crows' candlestick formation on the daily chart. Although there is nothing so ominous at the moment in June Gold's chart, its failure on Monday to exceed a key high I'd flagged at 1309.00 recorded in January 2015 is incipiently bearish. I've referred to the peak in my forecasts as 'the Matterhorn,' noting that the prospect of a long and robust precious-metals bull market would brighten considerably with a move above that high.  So far, however, the futures have shown reticence, if not to say chicken-heartedness, in approaching the peak, especially considering the running start they got from a nearly vertical approach. Because the June contract failed on the first try to get past 1309.00, that will weigh on any bull market might unfold from this point forward. Thus, if the futures were to fall into a steep decline a year or two (or three) down the road without having surpassed the old record high just above $1900, I'd be tempted to infer that the bull market's failure had been foreshadowed by this week's failure to breach 1309 on the first attempt. To be sure, gold's spectacular run-up from mid-January to mid-February deserves a rest, and it is therefore unsurprising that this ostensible C-D follow-through leg has failed to replicate the steep ascent of the A-B impulse leg. Looking ahead, however, we will need to temper our bullishness at least somewhat if June Gold now falls beneath 1192.10. That's a key low in the 11-week-old consolidation begun in February, and its breach would create a bearish impulse leg on the daily chart. Although its power

The minor corrective pattern shown looks good enough to bottom-fish, although doing so with a three-tick stop-loss at 1275.20 will probably be less risky than attempting it at p=1283.95. That's because the higher number precisely coincides with the point 'B' low of the pattern. As such, it is likely to attract the kind of competition we seek to avoid. Trading opportunities aside, if you'd rather sit back and observe, a bounce from anywhere above 1275.20 would be bullish, provided the rally surpasses at least two prior peaks, as all good impulse legs must. Alternatively, an easy breach of 1275.20 the first time the futures encounter it would suggest more weakness, presumably corrective, ahead.

The futures punched past a clear Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance at 1288.25 on Friday with sufficient force to put the 1336.30 ‘secondary pivot’ (see inset) in play as a minimum target for the near term. The rally has also made the red line potentially available for a ‘mechanical’ buy, provided the June contract stays above it for a couple more bars before pulling back. The implied stop-loss for this strategy would be enormous, amounting to about $4,800 per contract even if the more conservative 1336.30 is used as a target rather than D=1384.40. Under the circumstances, we’ll look to significantly reduce the entry risk by using ‘camouflage’ if and when a ‘mechanical’ entry is signaled. For guidance in real time stay tuned to the chat room, where there are many subscribers well-versed in the tactic. Visit our 24/7 chat room and share trading ideas and real-time results by taking a free trial subscription. _______ UPDATE (May 3, 12:12 a.m. ET): The futures appear to be consolidating above the midpoint pivot, presumably for a thrust to at least 1336.30, but they'll need to stay above it for two more days before a 'mechanical' buy signal could be generated on the daily chart. Under the circumstances, it would be premature to look for a 'camouflage' entry opportunity on lesser charts , even if one could in theory materialize at any time.

The futures punched past a clear Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance at 1288.25 on Friday with sufficient force to put the 1336.30 'secondary pivot' (see inset) in play as a minimum target for the near term. The rally has also made the red line potentially available for a 'mechanical' buy, provided the June contract stays above it for a couple more bars before pulling back.  The implied stop-loss for this strategy would be enormous, amounting to about $4,800 per contract if the more conservative 1336.30 is used as a target rather than D=1384.40.  Under the circumstances, we'll look to significantly reduce the entry risk by using 'camouflage' if and when a 'mechanical' entry is signaled. For guidance in real time stay tuned to the chat room, where there are many subscribers well-versed in the tactic.

June Gold reversed sharply yesterday after peaking a single tick below the 1254.70 rally target I'd proffered here the night before. Some subscribers evidently were able to use the target to their advantage, but because no one got short at the top, I have not established a tracking position. Despite the $14 sell-off that followed yesterday's high, my outlook remains bullish, tied to the 1279.80 Hidden Pivot target that has served to keep us on the right side of the trend.  For obvious reasons, buy-and-hold strategies are not appropriate at the moment. However, the pattern shown should do just fine for traders wanting to test the water, staking out a speculative long position for a possible shot at 1279.80.  To bolster your confidence, I've included a chart that shows why yesterday's spiky top was nonetheless bullish. The crucial evidence of this is that the intraday high slightly exceeded an external' peak  at 1254.20. That makes the hourly chart impulsively bullish, and therefore well-suited to the goals of long-side traders. _______ UPDATE (April 28, 9:42 p.m. ET): Everything has worked out almost precisely as predicted above.  As of this moment, June Gold is up $10, having gotten as high as 1278.20. I hope subscribers got a nice ride! A push decisively past 1279.80 would put in play some targets above $1300.  For exact details, check out the recording of this afternoon's 'impromptu' technical analysis session. It should be up and available to subscribers by later tonight or early Friday morning. _______ UPDATE (April 29, 10:04 a.m.): June Gold is hesitating this morning at the exact 1288.25 midpoint pivot of a pattern on the daily chart that projects to 1384.40. If and when this number is decisively exceeded, we can use 1336.62 as a minimum upside target. Also, p=1288.25 will be usable