Gold

The futures are looking heavy and need to close above 1257.50 by the end of the week to keep the heat on bears. Settlement above 1271.40 would be even better, all but clinching more upside over the near term to at least D=1299.20 (see inset). Looking at a bigger picture, we shouldn't be too concerned if corrective selling pushes this vehicle down another $20 or $30, since even a print exceeding 1181.60 to the downside would not do much harm to the very bullish look of the daily chart. Night owls can use this bullish pattern to attempt a low-risk entry 'mechanically' at x=1253.65 or p=1256.80:  a=1247.30 (1/9 at 10:40 a.m. ET); b=1259.90 (1:20 p.m.); c=1250.50.

Friday's wacky price swings easily exceeded the 1273.80 rally target we'd been using for the last several weeks. This Hidden Pivot lodestar helped keep us confidently on the right side of the move, even when the rally stalled, sometimes for days at a time. The $7 overshoot of 1273.80 suggests that bullish ABC patterns of a larger degree are at work pushing gold higher, including one with a 1384.10 target that was included with the last tout. For the moment, however, we should use a somewhat less ambitious pattern to take the stress and guesswork out of trading this vehicle's ups and downs in the days ahead.  The one shown has a 1308.80 target that has been well validated by some precise hits at both p and D.  (Note that last week's peak at 1280.70 occurred a mere $1.20 from where we might have predicted.) For trading purposes, I'd suggesting getting long at p=1250.15 using 'camouflage'; or 'mechanically' at 1220.83, stop  1191.40, provided you know how these trade set-ups work.  My hunch is that a 'mechanical' entry on a pullback to 1250.15, stop 1230.60, would get us aboard with little discomfort, but I am reluctant to recommend this strategy on a Sunday night, since one never knows what sort of mood will greet the new week. Let me mention as well that a move to the 1308.80 target would slightly exceeded the 'Matterhorn' peak at 1308.00 recorded in January 2015.  I've commented on the significance of this peak, but to refresh your memory, let me repeat this again: An upward penetration of 1308.00, however slight, would be very bullish -- enough so, in my estimation, to break the back of the bear market begun in November 2011. _______ UPDATE (March 7, 11:078 p.m. ET): You needn't wait for a big

A 1273.80 rally target has kept us on the right side of the trend for weeks, even when gold looked pretty tired for stretches lasting as long as 3-5 days. Now is a good time to let the bullish imagination run, however. To trade gold futures, we've been using a relatively minor ABC rally pattern that seemed to unfold at a glacial pace. However, if you view this price action as a consolidation within a significantly larger pattern, it makes more sense. I've reproduced a chart that shows this clearly, with a 'k-A' segment that Pivoteers will see as commensurate with the scale of the correction of the last three weeks. Most immediately, the pattern raises our minimum upside objective to 1287.80, the midpoint Hidden Pivot. But it also establishes an intermediate-term target as high as 1384.10.  That's where I think this rally is headed most immediately before it takes another significant breather. Meanwhile, p and p2 can be used to initiate long trades and to manage the risk of ongoing trades. We'll have no fewer than three enty strategies at our disposal -- mechanical, counterintuitive and camouflage -- so stay tuned to the chat room in the coming weeks if you seek guidance in real time.

I've superimposed two bullish patterns of somewhat different degree to show how well April Gold has been doing traversing both. At the moment, in night trading, the futures have pierced the secondary pivot of the smaller pattern, shortening the odds of a continuation to at least D=1258.70.  If that Hidden Pivot is achieved, it would mean that the p2 (pink line) of the larger pattern has been decisively exceeded, making its sibling 'D' target at 1273.80 an odds-on bet. Overall, although the follow-through (CD) leg of the large pattern has unfolded at a glacial pace, it looks well capable of reaching its target, especially with the smaller pattern helping to drive it. Hidden Pivot levels associated with either pattern can be traded 'mechanically', using the same rules that always apply. If you're uncertain about how this works, just ask in the chat room.  You might also check the archive, since many touts recommending 'mechanical' trades have been illustrated with annotated charts. _______ UPDATE (March 2, 12:27 a.m. ET): Amidst fretting and disappointment in the chat room yesterday morning, I posted the following:  "Gold looks fine; there is no change whatsoever in my analysis. Its [recent] bullishness has been temporarily suppressed by a very buoyant stock market. This is the only 'correlation' working at the moment, but we should have become used to it over the last four-and-a-half years." Period. _______ UPDATE (March 2, 9:51 p.m.): No Change.

The daily chart shows a consolidation pattern that probably has at least another 3-5 days to go before gold might be ready for another strong leg up. The lesser charts remain easily tradable intraday, however, as the graph (see inset) attests. Friday's low occurred to-the-exact-tick at a 1211.90 Hidden Pivot support, producing a bounce worth as much as $1500 per contract to any trader who was paying attention. Whence might the next short-term opportunity come?  Following a marginal breach to the downside of 1211.90, I'd look for a 'counterintuitive' set-up like the one shown, using the big ABC pattern. _______ UPDATE (February 29, 9:11 a.m. ET): Using the existing point 'C' low at 1212.00, the futures rallied overnight to trigger an entry at 1223.68.  The stall so far almost precisely at p=1234.35 has validated the pattern, which projects to D=1258.70. (60-min, A=1207.60 on 2/22).  

The slog toward the 1273.80 target shown is starting to feel like a climb up El Capitan with a 50-pound backpack. Each feint has given way to a sharp selloff, followed by a tedious, ratcheting recovery. This hasn't altered the target, nor even the odds that it will be reached, but it has made profiting from it an endurance test. The futures have beckoned a 'mechanical' buy at 1232.65, stop 1218.75, three times in the last two days, and although none of the trades would have been stopped out, in retrospect it would have been preferable to wait for a 'camouflage' entry opportunity. That, at least, would lower the bar, keeping one in the trade for perhaps an hour, as opposed to...days.  The 'mechanical' trade remains valid nonetheless, but it will take more patience the guts to ride it out.

On the weekly chart, the pullback from the 1263.90 peak recorded a week ago has yet to negate the possibility of an uncorrected rally exceeding a key high at 1308 that I've labeled 'The Matterhorn'. Were that to occur, I'd infer there's a good chance that bulls have finally broken the back of the bear market begun 53 months ago.  More immediately, they seem content to play toe-sies with a minor midpoint resistance at 1232.65 (see inset). Once past this Hidden Pivot level, however, the futures will become an odds-on bet to continue to at least p2=1253.23, or to D=1273.80 if any higher. Although it is mildly discouraging that bulls have made so little headway since a theoretical buy signal was tripped on 2/16 at 1212.08, we should notice as well that corrective action since then has been decidedly timid. ______ UPDATE (February 24, 8:35 p.m. EST): A promising rally reversed from a mid-morning peak that lay just a hair above the 1253.23 pivot noted above. In the chat room, several subscribers reported taking a profitable ride from the red line up to the pink, where they apparently exited. Despite the selloff that ensued, the 1273.80 rally target remains viable. Depending on how far this correction goes, traders might look for a 'mechanical' buying opportunity at x, p or p2. A stop-loss equal to one-third of the difference between the entry price and 1273.80 should be used.

Bulls have had two days to ignite a booster-stage rally following last week's encouraging thrust, but have so far failed to deliver. Short-term doubts would be dispelled by a push on Thursday exceeding 1232.65, the midpoint Hidden Pivot shown. However, if no such rally is forthcoming, regaining bullish momentum next week will likely require a scary headline or a downturn in European and Asian markets Sunday night. Despite my reservations, I would suggest to those familiar with the technique a single-contract mechanical' buy if the futures exceed the green line overnight by at least five points for a few bars, then pull back to it. Your stop-loss would be at 1191.40._______ UPDATE (February 19, 12:51 a.m. EST): The buy at the green line suggested above could have produced a one-day profit of as much as $2800 per contract, since the futures vaulted to a 1240.60 peak intraday. Although numerous subscribers reported having gotten long,  I haven't established a tracking position because the trade could not have been executed using the 'mechanical' entry advised. A 'camouflage' entry would have worked, however, and I provided the relevant coordinates in the chat room.  For the record, on the 3-minute chart, a perfect, stress-free opportunity would have come at 10:33 a.m. EST, using an x=1212.20 trigger derived from these coordinates: A= 1210.90 (10:15 a.m.); B=1213.10. Pivoteers will recognize the felicitous perfection of this pattern.  Looking just ahead, Thursday's upward penetration of the pattern's 1232.70 midpoint pivot implies more progress over the near term to p2=1253.23, or to D=1273.80 if any higher.  A pullback to 1212.10 could be bought 'mechanically,' stop 1191.40, for a shot at D. As before, you can try to cut the initial risk substantially by substituting a 'camouflage' entry for a mechanical one.  The trade-off is that this is likely to

In after-hours trading, April Gold tripped a 'counterintuitive' buy signal this evening when it rallied to the green line at 1201.78. I'm not convinced the correction is over, so I won't recommend initiating the trade unless you do so via 'camouflage'. Essentially, this would entail using an uptrending ABC pattern on the three-minute chart or less to fashion a conventional entry trigger of minute degree. Your initial theoretical risk should be held to no more than about five or six ticks. From an analytical standpoint, if the futures cannot achieve p=1207.35, at least, after triggering an entry signal on such a promising pattern, they would be warning of more weakness over the near term.