Gold

Subscribers are short a single contract with an 1176.00 basis and an 1146.50 price objective. The suggested stop-loss has been adjusted downward over the month I've tracked the position and currently sits at 1093.70. It is most unusual that there have been no significant rallies during this time -- not even the usual short-squeezes that occur when a trading vehicle gets as oversold as this one has been.  Our 1146.50 bid to cover the short is 2.00 points above a major Hidden Pivot support at 1044.50 that you can bottom-fish with a stop-loss as tight as $2.  There are ways to reduce the initial risk even more, so stay tuned to the chat room for guidance in real time if and when the futures fall below 1050.00. If there is reason for optimism over the near term, it lies in the failure so far of the downtrend to reach the minor target at 1060.70 that is shown in the chart. This would become more significant -- and more bullish --  if a rally were to hit our stop at 1093.70 without 1060.70 having been reached.  My long-term target for the bear market remains 814.50, basis the December contract. _______ UPDATE (November 27, 10:53 a.m. ET): I AM RECOMMENDING THAT THE SHORT IN GOLD BE COVERED HERE, at around 1056.50, since the December Comex contract has fallen today to within less the $7 of our longstanding target. If we'd been using a 'dynamic' trailing stop, we'd have covered around 1053. This is warranted because I view 1044.50 as a high-probability spot for a strong and potentially trend-changing bounce. The theoretical gain on the position would have been $12,000 per contract for subscribers who followed my initial guidance.

If December Gold were to reverse direction now, surging above 1234.00 without having achieved the 1044.50 target (see inset), it would almost surely signal the end of the bear market begun in 2011. That is not what I expect, however. More likely is that the futures will fall to the target within the next week or so, then bounce sharply. We hold a short position with a profit-adjusted costs basis of 1176, and I am still suggesting that you cover there (at 1046.50, actually), or hedge the short by buying near-the-money call options in GLD that expire in three or four weeks. Playing for a strong bounce from 1044.50 still looks like a very promising play, even though a long-standing bear-market target at 814.50 will remain viable. For now, continue to use a stop-loss at 1093.70 for the short, o-c-o with a bid at 1046.50.

Yesterday's rally was the most promising we've seen on the hourly chart in weeks. It surpassed no fewer than four prior peaks without taking a breather; moreover, the pullback has been shallow so far. We've been short this vehicle with an 1176 basis, but the current stop-loss at 1093.70 should be closely minded, since even moderate strength on Friday could trigger it. If so, it would give us a theoretical gain of $9300 on the position upon exit.  If the rally is for real, bulls should be able to move the futures easily past 1086.50 Thursday night. That's the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance of a small abc pattern on the hourly chart that projects to 1095.50. (A=1068.30 at 9:00 a.m. ET on 11/19). ______ UPDATE (November 22, 11:07 p.m.): The futures flunked our test with weak feint to 1087.20 that was followed by $20 dive.  Maintain stops at 1093.70 for now, o-c-o with an order to cover the short at 1046.50, two points above a longstanding target. ______ UPDATE (November 23, 12:46 a.m.  Brian Catalucci - Catman): The $20 dive has allowed us to draw a down pattern again on the 60 minute futures chart.(A= 1086.00 B= 1066.50 C= 1074.40). Gold bounced just above the P (1064.70), rising again above  X (1069.60) by $1.50. Today, the 24th is OPEX (option expiration). Looks like DaBoyz have got gold cornered right were they want it. You can keep your stop at 1093.70 or move it down a few bucks. Still look to cover the short at 1046.50.

We are short a single contract with a cost basis of 1176 and a theoretical gain of $10,900.  Bring the stop-loss, currently at 1111.40, down to 1093.70. At current prices, the position is showing a theoretical gain of $10,900. If and when this relentless downtrend closely approaches our original target at 1044.50, we'll look to hedge the short by buying ten just-out-of-the-money call options in GLD for each futures contract that you are short. In theory, our premium risk should amount to no more than 10% of the $13000 we will have made on the short-futures position.  If you've held no position, you can still bottom-fish 1044.50 using GLD calls, since a tradable bounce from that price is very likely, in my estimation. _______ UPDATE (5:28 p.m.): No change. The fleeting head-fake on the non-news from the Fed was not especially encouraging.

We are short a single contract with a cost basis of $1176 and a theoretical gain of $9300. Maintain stops at 1111.40. Bulls were hanging by a thread when the final bell sounded on Friday.  Earlier in the day they broke beneath July's 1073.70 low, as expected. However, the subsequent bounce was weak, considering that the breach of the low would have shaken loose a lot of bulls and would-be profit-takers.  I'd suggested giving them the benefit of the doubt for another day or two, but you need only look at the chart to feel the all-but-irresistible weight of the long-term downtrend. It has been pushing the futures toward the 1044.50 target since last February, when a short sale was signaled. There are even larger, weightier ABC patterns that imply still-lower prices, with a worst-case target at 814.50 that I first broached here long ago.  Although the 1044.50 Hidden Pivot looks like a promising place to try bottom-fishing with a tight stop-loss, you should be trading with a bearish bias at the moment, bent on capturing $40 of potential downside profits ahead off any bottom-fishing foray._______ UPDATE (November 17, 9:53 a.m. ET): The futures are noodling around p=1079.50, with p2=1069.75 as minimum downside target and D=1060.70. On the 30-minute chart, A=1109.70 (11/6) and B=1073.00 on 11/12

I'm tracking a single-contract short position with a profit-adjusted cost basis of 1176.90, a price objective of 1044.50 and a stop-loss recently lowered to 1111.40. The relentless decline of the last month has brought the futures down to a precarious resting spot just $10 above July's key low at 1073.70. I expect it to be breached, although that won't necessarily spell disaster.  A sharp rally "should" occur immediately thereafter, since the suffocating weight of prayerful bulls will be gone, stopped out by a dip beneath a level that too many of them are likely counting on for support. It is the extent of the snap-back rally that will matter, and a relatively feeble one would be telling. For if the futures cannot bounce at least $30 after piercing 1073.70, I'd infer they are on their way down to 1044.50 at least; and thence to an obligatory test of $1000, where they haven't been for six years. Below this watershed sit two more targets, either of which could mark the end of the bear market begun in August 2011: 971.35 (see inset) or, my worst case, 817.50.  _______ UPDATE (10:59 a.m. ET): The expected Whoopee Cushion rally -- it came from a low at 1073.00 that lay just 0.70 beneath the critical support I'd flagged --  was a relatively feeble 16 points.  This was such a poor showing that we should look for bulls to try again either Friday or Sunday night. It's hard to imagine them rolling over without putting up a fight.

With gold plummeting, the short position initiated by subscribers on October 29 is showing a gain on paper of about $9000 per contract. The cost basis has been adjusted to reflect earlier profit-taking and applies to the 25% of the original position that remains.  There is considerably more downside potential, since we're using a Hidden Pivot target at 1044.50 as a minimum objective. However, I am suggesting that you use an ample stop-loss nonetheless to avoid giving it all back.  Lower it once again, this time to 1120.90, good through Monday. At that price, the futures would generate a robustly bullish impulse leg on the intraday charts.  As noted earlier, a pullback from just above that number could set-up an attractive 'camouflage' buying opportunity. ______ UPDATE (9:53 p.m. ET): Let's bring the stop down a bit more, to 1111.40, since that's the very lowest price at which a bullish impulse leg would be created (on the 15-minute chart). _______ UPDATE (8:13 p.m. ET): No change.

I'm tracking a single short contract with a cost basis of 1176.90. That price reflects paper gains on three contracts already exited.  At Tuesday's lows, the gain would have amounted to $6300 per contract. I'd suggested swinging for the fence with this position, using a target at 1044.50, but we should implement a stop-loss nonetheless. Specifically, I'll recommend placing the stop at 1142.80, since that's where a rally would generate a bullish impulse leg on the 240-minute chart (see inset). The stop is good for today only and would be tripped only if the rally is visibly uncorrected after exceeding the first peak at 1138.00. _______ UPDATE (November 4, 7:24 p.m. ET): Lower the stop-loss to 1124.20 for the 25% of the original position that remains.  At that price, a rally would surpass two 'external' peaks on the 30-minute chart, generating a bullish impulse leg. Although this would pose a small but not insignificant threat to our short position, it could also set up a 'camouflage' buying opportunity for the alert Pivoteer. This would occur if there's a shallow pullback from just above 1124.20. If you are uncertain about how to exploit such an opening, inquire in the chat room when appropriate.  _______ UPDATE (November 5, 7:56 p.m.): Thursday's hum-drum action requires no change in our strategy. However, traders should be alert to a possible running of stops just below 1100.00,  followed by a bear-trap, short-squeeze rally.

How's that short position working out for you?  The swoon down to 1138.90 on Sunday's opening bar allowed traders to close out another 25% of the position a single tick off the precisely targeted low. That effectively raises our cost basis to 1176.90 for the 25% that remains, making it much easier to swing for the fences as we'd intended. Relax for now and enjoy the ride! Although we're shooting for a potential gain of as much as $13,200 per contract, the 1044.50 price target is not yet an odds-on bet. (In fact, the daily chart remains moderately bullish.) Use a stop-loss at 1162.60 for now, but check for updates after the close in case it becomes necessary to adjust the stop-loss.