Gold

The pullback that has followed Friday's surge is shallow so far, suggesting that the futures are poised to move higher. If so, a decisive push past 1147.30, a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance, would clear a path to as high as 1165.00, the 'D' target of the pattern shown.  The target is already in play, since a theoretical entry signal was tripped Monday morning at 1138.50. Night owls looking for a low-risk way to get aboard should zoom down to the 10-minute chart or less to find a suitably subtle impulse leg for the task. Be prepared for a false signal or perhaps even two, since the rally will not have gone unobserved by bulls tired of sitting on the sidelines. _______ UPDATE (11:30 a.m. ET): Gold took off overnight, but I am not establishing a tracking position because any subscriber who got long did so on his or her initiative with no help from me. There were no 'mechanical' buying opportunities, and even camouflage entry set-ups were too tricky to exploit. Regardless, the 1165.00 target given above remains valid, with a shot at 1186.50 (first noted here a while back) if it's easily exceeded.  _______ UPDATE (10:44 p.m.): The futures were in a correction Wednesday night that promised to reverse tradably from p2=1140.40 or D=1137.40. (60-minute, a=1153.60 at 9:00 a.m.; b=1141.30 at 11:00 a.m.). As always, an easy down-move through D would portend further weakness.

To pass the time productively during Wednesday's tutorial session, we decided on shorting this dud 'mechanically' at 1114.50. As of around 9:00 p.m., the position had yet to rack up any gains, but the 1107.50 objective remains. If the futures should fall to that price, you could open a long position there, stop 1106.75.  If they mildly surprise by going higher, the rally would have to hit 1123.90 to be worthy of our attention. You could get long via camouflage by buying a C-type pullback from just above that number. _______ UPDATE (3:29 a.m. EDT): The futures have bottomed precisely at 1107.50 early Friday morning, but you'll be on your own if you went bottom-fishing there. If the support fails and another Hidden Pivot midpoint at 1106.75 is exceeded by more than 1.00 point, look for more slippage to the next, 1100.75; or to a worst-case D=1095.00. Here's the relevant pattern on the 30-minute chart, and a rel work of art it is:  A=1134.30 (9/29 at 10:00 a.m.): B=1110.80 (9/30 at 9:00 a.m.).  ________ UPDATE (Sunday, 8:59 p.m.): Gold's explosive rally on Friday was characteristically untradable, since it began and ended mostly in the space of a single price bar. The move was impulsive on the hourly charts, making any pullback Sunday night a theoretical 'buy'.

Gold should have performed better yesterday with the stock market getting slammed. Instead, the futures sold off moderately overnight, then they stalled after staging a weak recovery early in the regular session. Disappointing as this may have seemed, it left intact two bullish impulse legs, one of large degree, the other minor (see inset).  With two bullish patterns driving the rally, it deserves the benefit of the doubt, at least for now. This means we should look for a small rally on Wednesday; or worst-case, a little more weakness and then a bounce from D=1117.70 (good); p2=1122.30 (better); or p=1127.00  (best).  The pattern yielding those Hidden Pivots can be found on the 30-minute chart, where a=1146.00 on 9/28 at 4:00 a.m. _______ UPDATE (12:29 a.m. EDT): Tuesday's bland oscillations changed nothing in the short-term technical picture. The intraday low occurred a single tick from the 1122.30 'p2' support ("better") given above, but the futures have not yet gained sufficient loft to imply that a meaningful bounce is under way.

Friday's pullback to p=1141.90 triggered a mechanical buy there for a possible ride over the near term to as high as 1185.90. However, because this implies a relatively wide initial stop-loss at 1127.30, traders uncomfortable with the entry risk could cut it down to size by doing the trade camouflage-style on a chart of lesser degree. An appropriately subtle example can be found on the 30-minute chart using these coordinates: A=1144.30 at 4:30 p.m. on 9/25; B=1148.40 at 6:00 p.m.; and C(?)=1145.20 at 7:00 p.m. This is obviously a still-developing pattern, since the 'C' low is a yet unformed. I proffer the pattern nonetheless because it's the ones that relatively few traders notice that often work best. In this case, the theoretical entry risk would be about 1.10 points, or $110 per contract. If you are capable of finding this pattern, or something like it, you are probably qualified to trade it.

Friday's pullback to p=1141.90 triggered a mechanical buy there for a possible ride over the near term to as high as 1185.90. However, because this implies a relatively wide initial stop-loss at 1127.30, traders uncomfortable with the entry risk could cut it down to size by doing the trade camouflage-style on a chart of lesser degree. An appropriately subtle example can be found on the 30-minute chart using these coordinates: A=1144.30 at 4:30 p.m. on 9/25; B=1148.40 at 6:00 p.m.; and C(?)=1145.20 at 7:00 p.m. This is obviously a still-developing pattern, since the 'C' low is a yet unformed. I proffer the pattern nonetheless because it's the ones that relatively few traders notice that often work best. In this case, the theoretical entry risk would be about 1.10 points, or $110 per contract. If you are capable of finding this pattern, or something like it, you are probably qualified to trade it. _______ UPDATE (7:21 a.m. EDT): Gold futures are doing some gratuitous mau-mauing at the moment. If you prefer to see the glass as half-full, which is what I would suggest, use bullish-pattern A=1121.30 (9:22 at 11:00 a.m.) on the hourly chart.

The futures blew past the 1141.90 pivot with such power yesterday (see inset) that they seem very likely to achieve p2=1164.00 at least, or more likely D=1186.10, before the rally cycle begun in early August takes a breather. I don't mean to imply buyers will necessarily get stymied at D; indeed, if they push easily past it on first contact, that would be evidence that we are seeing something more than the dead-cat bounce to which we've grown accustomed as the bear market has unfolded out over the years. Night owls looking to get aboard should zoom down to the 5-minute chart to look for a suitably obscure A-B impulse leg in the midst of the corrective flag begun around 10:30 .m. EDT. Note that this corrective pattern has already stopped out bulls twice today, with lower lows at, respectively, 1151.20, 1149.60, and...?

My obsession with keeping losses down to literal small change would have stopped subscribers out of a beautiful trade Tuesday night. With the futures hovering near 1124.00, I'd recommended bottom-fishing with an 1121.70 bid, stop 1121.40. The stop-loss proved too tight, however, when the futures launched into a $13 rally from 1121.10 that could have racked up a gain of nearly $1300 per contract for anyone who'd gotten aboard.  Might I encourage those of you who trade less timidly than I to do so when you think it's warranted?  By now, many of you will have developed a feel for when these targets are likely to work most precisely. This one worked precisely enough that it should have produced an easy winner for all who attempted it. Looking ahead, although the futures surpassed the 1133.25 midpoint pivot shown by just a few ticks, the overshoot looks sufficient for us to infer that more upside awaits to p2=1139.70, or 1146.00 if any higher. Keep in mind that both of these targets lie within a larger bullish pattern that projects to 1184.00.

If bulls are going to turn things around, the first place where we might expect this to happen is at the 1121.60 midpoint Hidden Pivot of the pattern shown. Accordingly, I'll suggest bottom-fishing with an 1121.70 bid, stop 1121.40. If the stop is hit you could try again at either of the remaining pivots, 1119.20 or 1116.90. A third entry possibility would be at the conventional point 'x' of the large ABC pattern shown. This would be a 'counterintuitive' trade of the sort I've been emphasizing during the weekly tutorial sessions. I'm in a buying mood here simply because the downtrend of the last three days has occurred in the context of a larger, bullish pattern begun in early August.

Monday's moderate weakness looks innocuous in the context of the bullishness of the 240-minute chart shown. Notice that the presumptive C-D phase of the rally begun from 1081.40 in early August stalled precisely at the 1141.90 midpoint pivot. This confirms the authority and reliability of the pattern itself, while also shortening the odds that a decisive push past p would go at least to p2=1164.00, or to D=1186.10 if any higher.  Both p and p2 can be used to get long via 'mechanical' bids, provided you are familiar with the tactic. More immediately, night owls could look for a buy trigger in the tiny ABC pattern at the rightmost edge of the charts shown. The point 'C' low is not yet established, but once it is, it could set up a camouflage entry a 'x' on a chart of lesser degree.  If all of this sounds like mumbo-jumbo, stay close to the chat room, where any number of subscribers should be able to provide help in real time as opportunities unfold.