Gold

An aging target below at 1187.60 looks like it's finally about to get hit, but if you go bottom-fishing there be careful, since an overshoot of as little as 0.50 would open a path to as low as 1166.70, an alternative Hidden Pivot target calculated by sliding down to the lower B-C shown. Alternatively, it would take a rally exceeding 1236.70 today or tomorrow to suggest this brick might be meaningfully turning around. _______ UPDATE (February 24, 8:20 p.m.): Gold's herky-jerky price action and phony rallies have become almost too annoying to care about. Be that as it may, the futures have been up as much as $12 Tuesday night, even if they've yet to take out any significant prior peaks. If the rally continues, however, surpassing 1210.30 (see inset, a new chart), a pullback from just above that number could offer night owls an excellent opportunity to climb aboard with entry risk under tight control.

We've been using an 1187.60 target to keep a step ahead of the bear, but the 1183.40 Hidden Pivot shown looks more compelling at this point. Accordingly, I'll recommend  bottom-fishing with an 1182.90 stop-loss, but only if you've held a short position on the way down.  Camouflage is the suggested method of getting short, but if you prefer the simplicity of a 'mechanical' entry, offer at 1203.20, stop 1208.80, making the stop-loss o-c-o with a bid to cover the position at 1184.00. Optionally, you could try bottom-fishing at 1187.60 with a stop-loss as tight as 4 ticks.  Please report any fills in the chat room so that I can establish a tracking position for your further guidance. _______ UPDATE (Monday morning): Getting short at 1203.20 as suggested could have produced a gain per contract of as much as $1400, since the futures fell to 1190.60 overnight. A stop-loss as tight as $1.60 would have sufficed, since the futures went no higher overnight than 1204.70.

Allegedly 'dovish' emanations from the dissemblers at the Fed put wings on gold's spirited recovery yesterday. Prior to this stale crumb of non-news, the downtrend looked hellbent on an 1187.60 Hidden Pivot target that I first identified last week. Instead, from an intraday low at 1197.20, the futures leaped to 1213.20 before pulling back. Then they resumed their rally Wednesday night, generating a price projection for the very short-term to the 1221.40 target shown. As of around 9:30 p.m., it looked very likely to be reached. As always, however, our optimism going forward will depend on whether, and how quickly, bulls can push this vehicle past the target. _______ UPDATE (8:52 p.m. EST): The 1187.60 target is still in play, even if getting there has been a very bumpy ride. The short term outlook would brighten, however, if the futures pop above 1225.20 Thursday night or Friday morning. This is where an external peak made Tuesday on the way down lies, and night owls can find it nicely expressed on the hourly chart. A bc-type pullback from just above could set up an enticing 'camouflage' entry opportunity for a bull trade.

The very precise bounce from 1216.20, a midpoint Hidden Pivot support, has validated the bearish pattern shown. It projects to 1187.60 (please note that the original target has been adjusted upward by 0.50), a little more than $40 below levels that obtained late Monday night. A plunge to the target is not a foregone conclusion, since a rally today or tomorrow exceeding 1245.40 would negate the target and provide at least temporary respite for bulls. However, if the futures should trade more than $1.50 below the red line, or close beneath it, that would significantly shorten the odds of a finishing stroke to 1187.10. Night owls looking for opportunity should use patterns from the 30-minute chart or less to create an entry trigger.  At the moment, a bearish impulse leg is developing on the '30',  where A=1233.80 at 8:30 p.m. EST. ______ UPDATE (February 17, 6:53 p.m. EST): Sellers smashed the 1216.20 pivot, all but guaranteeing more downside over the near term to the 1187.60 target flagged above. I like this target enough to suggest bottom-fishing there with a stop-loss as tight as four (!) ticks. Use camouflage, though, if you intend on buying more than one contract.)

Short-term, all signs continue to point lower. Although we've been using a Hidden Pivot support at 1206.10 as a minimum downside objective, the larger-degree pattern shown, with an 1199.50 target, suggests the next swoon could do a little more damage. Although it would not destroy the still-corrective look of the selloff from the 1308.80 peak recorded on January 22, it would exceed an external low at 1205.50 to create a fresh, bearish impulse leg of daily-chart degree. The futures could fall to as low as 1168.30 and still be 'corrective' relative to the low from which 2015's promising rally was launched, but at that point the bullish case would be hanging by a thread. Alternatively, bulls could take moderate encouragement from a thrust Friday exceeding an external peak at 1235.60 recorded Wednesday on the way down.

Gold continued its funereal behavior Wednesday, apparently in preparation for a drop to 1225.60, or to 1206.10 if any lower.  These are Hidden Pivot supports that can be bottom-fished with, respectively, a stop-loss at 1225.10, or at 1205.60. The targets would lend themselves to camouflageurs, since neither pivot coincides with anything structurally significant to the left of it. Alternatively, and as noted here yesterday, it would take an upthrust exceeding 1274.70 to brighten the outlook for the near term.  For good measure, I'll stipulate that the futures must close above that number for two consecutive days before we break out a cheap bottle of sparkling wine. _______ UPDATE  (Feb 11, 10:45 p.m.): No change, although a thrust Wednesday night exceeding 1225.20 could offer a reprieve as well as a possible opportunity for night owls to get long using the 'camouflage' technique. A bc-type pullback from 2-4 ticks above that price would be just the ticket. For actionable ideas, check out the right-hand edge of the 15-minute chart. _______ UPDATE (Feb 12, 10:50 a.m.):  Oh look! Another Whoopee Cushion price spike, induced for the exclusive benefit of the trading world's privileged class. Besides helping them steal from widows and pensioners, all the overnight move accomplished was to relocate my immediate downside target to 1211.20.

Gold obliterated a clear and compelling Hidden Pivot support at 1240.00 on Friday, telegraphing further weakness to the 1229.80 target shown.  That pivot appears to have contained sellers, at least for the moment, but it will take a rebound to at least 1274.70 over the very near-term to demonstrate that bulls are capable of reversing the slide begun on January 22 from a recovery high of 1308.80.  In the meantime, all the selling so far should be regarded as merely corrective, since it hasn't gotten remotely close to the 1168.30 low on January 2 that kicked off the new year with such promise.  Night owls please note: The 3-minute chart has generated a fragile-looking but nonetheless bullish impulse leg with the following coordinates: a=1236.00 at 8:03 p.m. EST;  b=1239.50 at 8:57; and c= 1236.20 at 10:21. If the rally fails, however, look to bottom-fish p=1231.50 on the way down, or 1223.50 if it gives way.  _______ UPDATE (Feb 10, 12:08 a.m.): Monday's timid rally has increased the likelihood of lower prices ahead. A pop above 1274.7o is looking increasingly unlikely, but that's still what it would take to turn the futures around.

It's all just noise until such time as the futures pop above 1293.60. That's a Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance, shown as a red line on the chart. At that point, April Gold would become an odds-on bet to reach 1335.10. Notice that a print at that price would also put this vehicle above an 'external' peak recorded back in August, refreshing the bullish impulsiveness of the daily chart. All this is speculative, of course, and the futures could just as easily break lower. My downside target would be 1229.80, a Hidden Pivot support sufficiently compelling to warrant bottom-fishing with a stop-loss as tight as five ticks. The implied $42 fall from current levels would not alter the bullish look of the chart, since it would amount to a very normal, 56% correction of the promising bull leg begun early in the new year from 1168.30.  Early Thursday morning, the futures were struggling to reach a seemingly easy target at 1276.05. This did not bode well for the near term. _______ UPDATE (11:41 a.m.): Don't know how I overlooked this, but the 1240.00 correction target advertised here yesterday still looks like a "definite," as well as an opportune spot to try some tightly stopped bottom-fishing. _______UPDATE (Feb 6, 9:31 a.m.): 'Tightly stopped' wouldn't have worked, since in this case the ugliness exceeded the target by 2.70, hitting a low of 1237.30. This is NOT a sign of good health. 

Yesterday's dive penetrated the 1263.20 midpoint Hidden Pivot support shown, implying that the sideways action since is distribution ahead of a follow-through fall to 1240.00. The short-term outlook would brighten with a modest rally touching 1268.40 Tuesday night, but absent this encouragement we should expect more weakness to at least 1240.00.  Bottom-fishing there is recommended, but I'd suggest doing so using the 'camouflage' technique. This implies fashioning an entry trigger from an uptrending abc pattern on charts of (in this instance) 5-minute degree or less. If 1240.00 is closely approached and you're uncertain about how to do this, ask in the chat room. _______ UPDATE (8:26 a.m.): The futures, presumably for some stupid reason, spiked $9 overnight to 1272.10, but the rally was over in three minutes and proved all but untradable. A three-hour dirge has followed, leaving the short-term outlook "brightened" as noted above, but with the intensity of a 60 watt incandescent bulb. If bulls get second wind, look for a follow-through to 1273.70.  Any higher would suggest they have more energy than is apparent at the moment.