Gold

An early-morning surge yesterday pushed the futures through the midpoint resistance shown, improving the odds of a follow-through today to its 1321.50 'sibling'. Ordinarily I would infer that the move is no worse than an even-money bet. But because gold's rallies since mid-March have been stunted, the burden of proof must rest with the bulls. Night owls looking to board will notice that even the 5-minute chart lacks the subtle handholds we look for when trying to grab safe hold of small abc patterns. Under the circumstances, I can suggest only that you zoom down even further, to perhaps the 1- or 2-minute bars, in search of a suitable hook. If you want to dispense with subtleties, try bottom-fishing the 1293.40 correction target, on the 5-minute chart, of a=1300.20 (5/12, 12:10 p.m.); b=1294.80 (1:25 p.m.); c=1298.80. ________ UPDATE (9:10 a.m.):  In overnight trading, gold looked pathetic yet again, failing to reach a very modest rally target at 1321.50. The June contract will need an approximately $50 surge to jump start the rally begun on New Year's Day. _______ UPDATE (May 13, 7:10 p.m.): No change. In the 'looking pathetic' category, June Gold has once again outdone itself.

The intraday charts are somewhat lacking in clarity at the moment, so I've reproduced the 'weekly' for a bigger picture. First, putting Hidden Pivots aside, my gut feeling is that it will be at least two weeks or more before the rally from the New Year's Day low is sufficiently consolidated to embark on a new bull leg, assuming one is coming.  To date, bulls have had one false start that occurred when a rally begun in early April failed to get off the launching pad. Although it would take but a print at 1319.80 over the next few days to trip a second Hidden Pivot 'buy' signal on this chart, I'm going to suggest taking it with a grain of salt, since my suspicion is that it will be premature like the last.  However, this should not preclude our initiating a 'camouflage' entry on the long side if the signal is tripped, since there's always the chance of catching a $50 ride to the midpoint pivot at 1371.20. ________ UPDATE (11:10 p.m. ET): Although there's no change in the big picture described above, you can try bottom-fishing at the 1281.30 pivot shown.  A single contract and a stop-loss no wider than 0.40 should be used, but you can be more aggressive if applying 'camouflage'. A decisive breach of the support would imply more downside to D=1267.10, another Hidden Pivot support that can be bottom-fished with a very tight stop. Alternatively, if the futures simply move higher, 1299.00 is where the rally would start to look interesting.

The 1309.50 midpoint pivot flagged here yesterday figured very precisely in yesterday's ups and downs, offering resistance on the way up, then support after it was exceeded. That validates its 'D' sibling at 1321.30, although such a modest objective may not restrain buyers for long if Gold is even the least bit feisty today.  The opportunity to leverage the $11 0f potential upside will probably go to night owls, but keep in mind that any progress above 'D' would imply  yet another thrust is coming that can be played from the long side. _______ UPDATE (May 6, 7:15 p.m. ET): The 1321.30 target given above remains viable for now, although the timidity of buyers is taking a toll on the odds. More wishfully, one could focus on a 1422.10 target from the daily chart, where A=1238.50 on 1/30/14 (see inset). If you'd rather wait until this target is seriously in play before raising your hopes, set a screen alert at 1345.30, since a two-day close above that price, a midpoint pivot, would leave bulls in their best shape since mid-March. _______ UPDATE (May 7) Posted in the chat room at 1:21 p.m.: Sorry I was too busy to post this in-your-face opportunity, but June Gold's so-far low at 1286.60 was two ticks away from the plain-as-day D target of (15-min) a=1305.50 at 8:45 a.m. ET.

In a tout that went out Thursday night, I had suggested bottom-fishing at a 1275.10 Hidden Pivot support that lay well beneath the last settlement price.  Lo, the June contract swooned very briefly down to 1272.00 when the regular session opened on Friday. And although I had suggested a stop-loss as tight as three ticks, subscribers who reported filling bids said the stop had not been triggered, presumably because there were no bids beneath ours at the time. This would have left them long four contracts when the futures rebounded in mere minutes to 1287.10.  Accordingly, for tracking purposes, I am assuming you are long a single contract whose cost basis has been reduced on paper to 1244.00 by profit-taking thus far.   To manage the risk of this position, I will now suggest closing it out if a bearish impulse leg is generated on the 5-minute chart (see inset). At the moment, with June Gold trading Sunday evening for around $1300, that would imply an uncorrected decline exceeding the  1293.70 low.  My immediate upside target is 1309.50, but if it's easily breached, look for a follow-through to at least 1321.30.

Although yesterday's low came within $2.20 of the midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 1275.10 (red line), the downtrending pattern that produced it looks sufficiently compelling to suggest that the target will be hit exactly, give or take a few ticks. If you want to bottom-fish this one without camouflage, try a 1275.20 bid, stop 1274.90.  Be aware, however, that because my target could get front-run, a camouflage entry is probably the better approach. If the red line is exceeded by more than four ticks, more downside to at least 1243.60 would become an odds-on bet. That Hidden Pivot, too, can be bottom-fished with the tightest stop-loss you can abide. _______ UPDATE (10:03 a.m. ET):  Gold swooned wickedly this morning, diving $14 in mere seconds to an apparent 1272.00 low before recouping half the loss in a minute, then the rest over the next half-hour.  Numerous subscribers bidding where I'd suggested reported being filled but not getting stopped out, apparently because there were no bids below the market.  If you bought and are still long, I'd suggest exiting half the position now for around 1281.00. If you hold only a single contract, stop yourself out if a downtrending impulse leg is generated on the 5-minute chart. At the moment, that would imply an unpaused dive to 1277.10. _______ UPDATE (11:14 a.m.): Hysteria in June futures now indicates 1310.20.

It's late Sunday night in New York, and the June contract has taken a few baby steps toward last week's bullish benchmark at 1307.20. Unfortunately, the effort thus far has fallen six ticks shy.  Assuming the Masters of the Universe allow the rally to continue the requisite extra inch, look for a follow-through to the 1318.30 target shown. I expect this Hidden Pivot resistance to show tradable stopping power, but if the futures push past it without first hesitating for perhaps 30 minutes it would be an encouraging sign.  Sunday night-owls, please note:  On the lesser charts, a fleeting pullback from a tick or two above 1307.10 could provide an excellent opportunity to get long with relatively little risk. _______ UPDATE (April 30, 9:54 a.m. ET): Gold has once again flunked the bullish litmus test, disappointing us for the umpteenth time since prices topped above $1900 28 months ago. Now, it would take a print today at 1304.00 to rouse this vehicle from its habitual state of lethargy. _______ UPDATE (11:25 p.m.): I'll set the bullish bar today at 1304.00, since anything less would likely be mere noise. _______UPDATE (May 1, 10:42 a.m.):  Gold has disappointed us yet again, down $15 at the moment after having gotten no higher overnight than 1293.00.  The 'good' news, if you can call it that, is that sellers are evidently too enfeebled to beat gold down without some help from long-squeeze dynamics, starting with head-fakes like the two that punctuated this morning's slide.

June Gold became a bull trade with yesterday's $30 surge, but powerful as this impulsive move was, I don't much trust it. Let me therefore stipulate that whatever follow-through impends, it achieve a minimum 1307.20 by Sunday night. That would refresh the bullish energy of the hourly chart, exceeding a small but technically significant peak recorded on the way down last week.  Failing that, the 1260.10 downside target remains not only viable, but an excellent place to attempt tightly-stopped bottom-fishing if the futures should suffer a relapse. (Note: This target has mutated slightly in the past week, from 1263.10 to 1265.60, but I like the current one, 1260.10 best, probably because the downtrending pattern itself has become so gnarly in the last few days.

Although it was mildly encouraging yesterday that a minor bearish pattern failed by a few dollars to reach its target, I'm going to stick with the 1263.10 target nonetheless. Hidden Pivots aside, you need only look at the chart (inset) to appreciate the mountainous supply of shares that has been weighing gold down. It's nothing that a rally today to 1302.60 wouldn't ameliorate, but barring that, we should expect to see bears in control for the time being.  Keep in mind that the cause of the rally was the running of stops placed just beneath the key low at 1277.40 recorded in late March. Considering how many hopeful bulls must have gotten shaken loose down there, the relatively feeble, $7 rally so far ranks as a disappointment. _______ UPDATE (April 24, 12:55 a.m. ET):  Given Wednesday's turgid price action, the analysis above can stand without change.

A downside target at 1263.10 given here earlier looks likes a logical place for bulls to dig in their heels. It comes from the hourly chart (A=1328.40 on 4/14), but there is another Hidden Pivot support on the 'daily' at 1265.60 that looks just as compelling. I would encourage tightly stopped bottom-fishing at either number, but if you prefer to do so with a straight bid rather than via 'camouflage', the lower number is probably the better place to try. Neither target is 'virginal', since each has had a couple of days to get talked up outside of the chat room. One final note: It's a long drop to the next Hidden Pivot  support, 1216.60, if the one at 1263.10 should fail.  _______ UPDATE (10:57 a.m. ET): On the 15-minute chart, the futures are in a downtrend at the moment with a clear enough target at 1273.20 that one could bottom-fish there with a stop-loss as tight as 1272.90. (A=1302.50 on 4/20; B=1281.80 on 4/20). Judging from the way sellers shredded the 1283.50 midpoint pivot, the futures WILL get there.