Gold

I disseminated a nasty, 1265.60 target intraday based on the pattern shown. Although it will be in play until such time as C=1331.40 is exceeded to the upside, it is encouraging that the bounce from Tuesday's lows exceeded the pattern's midpoint pivot at 1298.50. The pivot looked like an enticing short the first time it was hit on the way up, but subsequent price action looks more like a bullish consolidation than distribution. Even so, to 'actualize' the bullish potential of this picture, buyers will need to achieve 1312.40 today. That would exceed a very small 'external' peak made on the way down yesterday at around 6:00 a.m. ET. The peak is barely visible on the chart displayed, but it is significant because any rally that get's past it will be bullishly impulsive.

June Gold is off to a so-far $9 rally Sunday night. But before you get too excited, try to recall the last time a middling rally on a Sunday night went on to bigger and better things.  This note of skepticism is notwithstanding the fact that the futures hit a Hidden Pivot benchmark last week implying a further rally to at least 1354 over the near term. That's a probability, by the way, not a guarantee. What I can guarantee -- better put that word in quotes: 'guarantee' -- is a bit more upside this evening to the 1335.70 target shown. Night owls looking to get aboard should make use of the 1329.60 'external peak' highlighted on the left-hand side of the chart. A BC-type pullback from just above it would be exactly what we need to set up a potentially low-risk entry opportunity ahead of the expected push to 1335.70. _______ UPDATE (10:46 a.m. ET): The futures mucked around in tedium after the tout above went out. Although the very modest, 1335.70 target remains valid in theory, it's probably not worth the bother. The short-term charts remain nominally bullish. _______ UPDATE (8:21 p.m.):  No change since my last update.  Set an alert at 1343.30 if you want to awaken to the encouragement of positive developments. ________ UPDATE (April 15, 10:20 a.m.): Not only have their been no positive developments, bullion has gotten trashed this morning, down as much as $43 at one point. The weakness projects to 1265.60, $19 beneath the so far low. Here are the coordinates, from the daily chart: A=1343.20 on 3/21; B= 1277.40 on 4/1; and C=1331.40.  By implication, the bounce at the moment to p=1298.50 is a short sale, but camouflage is strongly advised.

June Gold finally passed all of my small tests yesterday and now looks primed for a thrust to at least 1354.00, the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance of the bullish pattern shown. However, we shouldn't rule out the possibility that the corrective abc that I've labeled in purple will run its course before the next big rally.  The implication is that a pullback to the midpoint Hidden Pivot of the pattern would be a back-up-the-truck number where we could buy aggressively with a tight stop. The actual number is 1292.00, and it will remain viable as long as the point 'c' high at  1324.90 is not exceeded first.

Bulls can't be too thrilled with Gold's ineffectual chest-beating these last couple of days.  Three times the futures have feinted toward the modest benchmarks we'd set, and three times they have failed to reach them.  The lower of the two, 1315.90, would trip the entry signal for a ride to as high as 1431.10.  Alas, the 1315.50 peak of yesterday's fleeting spike fell four ticks shy. The other bullish benchmark lies at 1316.50, the Hidden Pivot target of a humble rally pattern begun five days ago from 1286.80. My gut feeling is that the futures are likely to pop higher. But it is most vexing that the process has been taking so long, especially with the broad averages displaying the kind of devil-may-care nuttiness that should suffice to float everyone's boat. Whatever happens, June Gold looked like a fetching bull trade Wednesday evening as it traced out a secondary rally pattern pointing to 1319.80.  That target would become an odds-on bet once buyers have pushed this vehicle decisively above its sibling midpoint resistance, 1313.70.

June Gold looked bound for a minor rally target at 1316.50 when the music stopped yesterday.  However, bulls were acting feisty in off-hours trading, presumably raising their sights to the 1431.10 target shown (see inset). As you can see, they were just a tick shy of tripping a buy signal at 1315.90 when we went to press, and any 'camouflage' trades initiated from that price or higher should therefore have a bullish bias.  Resistance is likely to be apparent very near the 1354.30 midpoint, but if the futures trade 1.50 points or more above it intraday, or close above it, they would greatly shorten the odds of a further push to 1431.10.

Gold is once again fully under the sway of the broad averages, and so we shouldn't presume that it will somehow buck the trend if the stock-market carnage of the last two days continues (or, heaven forbid, intensifies). Another sobering point to consider is that Friday's 1307.50 peak turned chicken a measly tick shy of impulsiveness.  Despite this, if buyers surprise this morning and get second wind, surmounting midpoint resistance at 1306.20, look for a push to at least 1316.50, or to 1321.20 if any higher.

Gold's gratuitous ups and downs lately have run parallel to the relentless slop served up by the broad averages.  The latter are presumably biding their time, waiting for the kind of news that will get shorts to panic. It is impossible to predict what that news might be, but dog-bites-man stories such as the latest Fort Hood shooting rampage, and a possible subpoena for that tireless champion of the Fifth Amendment, Lois Lerner, surely won't do the trick.  Regarding June Gold, a 1272.00 target broached here earlier still looks like a promising spot to try bottom-fishing if it's reached. Alternatively, if bulls have no patience for more correcting, a print today at 1296.60 would trip the unqualified 'buy' signal' we've been waiting for. _______ UPDATE (9:28 a.m. EDT): On ginned-up jobs news, the futures have taken off. My immediate rally target is 1303.70, a midpoint Hidden Pivot that comes from the 3-minute chart (a=1286.80). However, any higher would put its 1312.00 sibling in play.  _______ UPDATE (April 7, 8:13 a.m.):  The futures have sold off moderately after topping on Friday midway between the two targets given above. The correction has somewhat overshot a minor Hidden Pivot support at 1300.40, suggesting that it has further to go, but there doesn't appear to be much gumption behind the selling.  Use a target at 1297.10 for now and, if you're inclined to trade this Hidden Pivot, a 1296.90 stop-loss.

It is mildly bullish that June Gold's entire rally yesterday happened in a single bar. This means that no one who wasn't already on board when the futures made their leap was able to profit.  It is also bullish that the rally occurred without a full correction down to my 1272.00 target. Even so, we should take note of the fact that the buying spree, such as it was, was not strong enough to surpass the 'external' peak at 1295.50 recorded Monday on the way down (see inset).  This seems likely to happen today, although it's not quite in-the-bag.  Traders looking to get long, especially night owls, should notice that even on the 15-minute chart, there are some 'hooks' to do so in the form of three (very) minor 'external' peaks.  As always, a small pullback from just above any of them should be viewed as a low-risk buying opportunity.  As we went to press, one such opportunity had already been triggered.

Gold has remained weak in line with my forecast and on Monday came within spitting distance of a 1280.10 Hidden Pivot target we've been using as a minimum downside objective for the May contract.  Shifting now to the June futures, I see further, very likely downside to 1272.00 before bulls get traction.  If you are a Pivoteer, I do not have to tell you how pretty and precise the price action has been at the 1307.00 midpoint pivot. This not only corroborates the target itself, it also suggests that there will be an opportunity to do some very tightly stopped bottom-fishing there.  If there are any fills reported in the chat room that have survived the low, I will establish a tracking position for your further guidance. Since odds of a fall to the target are high, traders should position from the short side until it is reached. If you are able to do so and then to reverse the position and go long, you should apply a portion of your gains to cushioning the stop-loss on a multi-lot position.  _______ UPDATE (April 1, 9:02 p.m. ET):  Yesterday's stab down to 1277.40 brought the futures still closer to my target.  The analysis and advice given above still hold. _______ UPDATE (April 2, 1:11 p.m.): I was VERY surprised (i.e., flabbergasted) to see that the futures turned higher this morning without having achieved my correction target at 1272.00. This holds bullish implications, but only after the upward reversal has gone 'bullishly impulsive' on the hourly chart. A print at 1295.60 would accomplish this. However, it is in Mr Market's nature that the so far intraday high would have fallen a vexatious 0.70 shy of meeting that criterion. Even so, and all things considered, my gut feeling here is: cautiously bullish. We