Gold

We've been using a Hidden Pivot at 1280.90 as a minimum downside target for the near term, but another is coming into focus at 1283.50 (see inset). Together they are going to exert a magnetic pull on the futures that looks likely to draw them at least a little lower before the good guys can take command again.  That would occur instantly with an upthrust exceeding the 'external' peak that I've labeled at 1329.80. However, anything short of that should be regarded as noise. An imminent fall to the 1283.50 target, or perhaps to 1280.90, would announce itself via the breach of the midpoint pivot at 1300.75. Any of them can be bottom-fished with a tight stop-loss. _______ UPDATE (10:59 a.m. EDT):  After rallying as high as 1317.10 overnight (i.e., 'noise'), the futures have relapsed to a so-far low at 1300.90 that is less than two ticks from the Hidden Pivot midpoint noted above.  If and when the support fails, look for a swoon to either of the two HPs that I've flagged.

The 1303.60 correction target given here yesterday in an update still obtains, but any lower would indicate 1299.30, or perhaps even 1280.90. This sequence of Hidden Pivot supports is tied to successively higher points 'A' on the chart shown. Although you could try bottom-fishing at any one of them, the lowermost is the only one that might allow you to do so with a tight (i.e. four ticks) stop-loss rather than via camouflage.  _______ UPDATE (10:38 a.m. EDT): You have to drop down to the one-minute chart before today's bounce, such as it is, begins to look impressive. On the 'hourly', however,  price action merely looks like a struggle at 'p' to avoid an immediate washout to the 1280.90 target given above.  To better gauge bulls' mettle, we'll set the bar at 1327.00, which is what it would take to turn the 60-minute chart bullishly impulsive, albeit merely mildly so.

Most of Friday's modest gains were achieved in the space of a few minutes in the dead of night -- hardly an encouraging sign. Still, the retracement that followed failed to take it all back, so bulls will start the new week with a small edge.  Assuming they are on the offensive when gold begins to trade Sunday night, you can use the 1346.30 target shown (see inset) as a minimum rally target. The close proximity of p=1339.80 to some peaks to the left of it could create entry opportunities for alert traders Sunday night or Monday morning. _______ UPDATE (Sunday night): The futures are off to a shaky start, generating a short but menacing impulse leg on the hourly chart by surpassing three prior lows without an upward correction.  The new chart (see inset) is intended to provide context for chat-room strategizing of such opportunities as may develop overnight. As always, price action at the p midpoint of the downtrending pattern will be key to gauging whether last week's weakness is likely to continue into the new week._______ UPDATE (9:08 p.m. EDT): The Bad Guys have triumphed yet again, driving stocks higher and bullion lower overnight. Now April Gold will fall to at least 1303.60, a target derived by sliding the point 'A' of the pattern shown up to March 18's 1360.20 high. That'll be a buying opportunity, tightly stopped as always (and a rally in the meantime to 1323.60, the p midpoint of the pattern, would be shortable).

The futures caught an alluring bounce from within two ticks of a 1330.90 target I'd flagged here yesterday, but by day's end the support had given way, sending the April contract down to a likely rendezvous with the 1321.20 target shown. That's the lowest target I can project for this cycle using the intraday charts, and so I'll suggest bottom-fishing there on your terms. Keep in mind that I recommended taking a partial profit yesterday when the futures had bounced a 'mere' $5 off the targeted low. As the old saying goes, no one ever went broke taking a profit. This is something to keep well in mind, especially with the pain of yesterday's nasty relapse still vivid. ______ UPDATE (10:49 a.m. EDT): My target caught the low, 1320.80, within three ticks, and a nearly $9 rally has unfolded since.  If you got in near  the bottom, please  let me know in the chat room so that I can establish tracking guidance.  For now, though, you should be out of at least half of the original position.

Sellers were unable to drive this vehicle down to a Hidden Pivot correction target at 1347.40 yesterday, implying they may be running out of steam after a two-day dump.  Even so, yesterday's 1351.10 low generated a bearish impulse leg, since it exceeded an 'external' low at 1354.30 recorded a week ago. This could provide an opening to buy the futures via 'camouflage' Tuesday night, since they are oscillating around a 1356.00 midpoint pivot that is a logical place for a bounce to occur. An easier play would be to bottom-fish at its Hidden Pivot sibling, 1349.30, assuming that it's reached. An initial stop-loss as tight as 1348.90 could be used. This tout is visible only to subscribers, so night owls should try to make hay with the 'exclusive' 1349.30 target if the opportunity should arise. ________ UPDATE (10:45 a.m. EDT):  The bad guys have in fact sacked gold for a third consecutive day.  Now, look to do your buying at 1330.90 (see inset), which is where this vehicle is going before it turns around. _______ UPDATE (2:51 p.m. EDT):  After plummeting $27, April Gold bottomed at 1331.10, two ticks from my target; then it bounced $5.  In the chat room, I advised partial profit-taking for anyone who got aboard near the low.

Bulls put up a good fight yesterday, but by day's end, with the stock market on another manic tear, they were looking pretty beat. It was the worst one-day selloff in gold since early January, but perhaps less menacing thus far than it might seem. That's because it follows a high that had broken above an old peak to generate a bullish impulse leg on the daily chart. We'll be better able to gauge seller's resolve once we've seen how the futures handle a corrective Hidden Pivot like the hypothetical one shown.  It lies at 1362.60, but if it's crushed the futures would be signaling more downside to at least 1356.80, a Hidden Pivot support that can be bottom-fished with a stop-loss as tight as four ticks. I'd suggest doing no more than one contract unless you plan to use a camouflage-style entry. _______ UPDATE (10:08 a.m. EDT):  The 1356.80 target was good for a $3.60 bounce (from 1357.20, actually) that lasted for all of a half-hour. Thereafter, it was lower still, presumably to at least 1347.50 (3m, a=1382.90 at 10:45 a.m. yesterday,  b=1361.90, c=1368.50). For more information about Rick's proprietary trading system and the upcoming Hidden Pivot/Camouflage Webinar in April, click here.

Gold's upward progress Sunday night is unspectacular, but it is in subtle details that we find evidence of power percolating below the surface. The April futures were up as much as $14 earlier tonight but have since receded and are now showing gains of just $4.70.  Moreover, the retracement has surpassed enough prior lows on the intraday charts to qualify as impulsively bearish. These minuses, however, do not negate the bullish implication of the so-far high at 1392.60, which exceeded a 'look-to-the-left' external peak (or more accurately, perhaps, a 'shelf') near 1391.00 recorded last September.  This has effectively refreshed the bullish energy of the daily chart, and while it has left the futures a considerable distance from an important bullish benchmark at 1430.20 noted here earlier, odds of getting there have been enhanced by tonight's fleeting rally.  More immediately, night owls looking to board ahead of the next upthrust should look for the opportunity at retracement 'p' and 'D' Hidden Pivots on the 5-minute chart. FYI, one such opportunity came 0.70 below p=1380.40 at around 9:40 p.m.

Yesterday's vicious chop left the futures presumably bound for the 1386.40 rally target shown. Catching the move will be tricky at best, but my gut feeling is that the opportunity will expire with the night session. As of around 9 p.m. EDT, the rally had generated a strong impulse leg on the hourly chart, and it may be possible to use an ABC pattern on this chart to get aboard.  If so, I'd suggest a timed buy-stop entry in the manner I have described here previously. Less risky but more difficult would be to 'camo' your way in using a chart of lesser degree - perhaps the 3-minute bars or less.

Now wasn't that exhilarating!  Not only did the futures exceed the 1361.10 benchmark we've been fixated on for weeks, they did so on a day when crude oil was getting savaged and stocks were going nowhere.  Clearly, gold has a mind of its own these days -- and with it the energy to forge steadily higher.  The most encouraging thing about the rally from New Year's Eve's low is that it has yet to correct on the weekly chart (see inset). Which means that the surge has a chance to exceed a third prior peak at 1430.20 before taking a breather. That would increase the odds that we are seeing the nascent stage of a powerful bull market, notwithstanding the fact that Silver has lagged the move. Pivoteers looking for an opportune spot to board should use the 30-minute chart to identify usable impulse legs.  Keep in mind that our goal when trading this vehicle is to limit theoretical entry risk to no more than five ticks per contract.  In practice, that implies zooming down to perhaps the 1-minute bar chart or less to find tiny entry patterns with commensurately tiny initial risk.