Gold

GCZ13 – December Gold (Last:1323.50)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

The low of yesterday's selloff fell $2 shy of the 1316.70 target that I put out intraday. The failure of sellers to achieve this target is ostensibly bullish, but it will now take an impulsive upthrust on the intraday charts to put bulls back in charge again. This has yet to occur; in fact, bulls have so far failed to surpass any prior peaks, let alone do so with the kind of verve we should like to see.  If it resurfaces, the first place it would be noticeable is on the 5-minute chart (see inset), via thrust that exceeds either or both of the two labeled peaks. Night owls looking for a way to board should pay them close heed, since either could be leveraged via camouflage. Looking at a bigger picture, bulls despondent about Thursday's weakness should check out the daily chart, which puts the selloff in a different perspective. Indeed, the $25 drop seems relatively minor when measured against the $111 rally off mid-October's 1251.00 low. Bulls might also want to ponder the ostensible reason given by the usual talking-head imbeciles for the drop in gold -- i.e., that The Tapeworm is back on the table.  Let me repeat this for the umpteenth time:  With the economy sinking into a morass because of Obamacare, an incipient crash in the real estate market and steady slippage in corporate earnings, any Fed tightening is about as likely as a Martian invasion. It's inflate-or-die, just as it has been for the last ten years, and bullion investors should act accordingly.

GCZ13 – December Gold (Last:1323.10)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

The recent high missed my 1362.40 target by 0.60, a failure with little technical significance. However, the ensuing pullback has set bulls and bears a-dueling. The former still hold a short-term edge, but the picture would darken on a print below the 1335.30 'external' low shown.  As of this moment, that would appear likely, since the futures have already crushed the midpoint support of a pattern targeted on 1332.30. The location of that Hidden Pivot support makes it a good place to attempt bottom-fishing, and that's what I'll recommend if and when it is touched. Camouflageurs should zoom down to the 1-minute chart for an entry signal, but if you'd rather do it the easy way, try a straight bid for a single contract at 1332.40, stop 1331.90. _______ UPDATE (9:58 a.m. EDT):  The futures turned higher off an evening low that fell 7 ticks from its 1137.60 correction target (1-min chart, a=1344.20 at 9:03 p.m.; b=1340.20). The first camo trigger that would have gotten you long -- with little stress -- occurred around 9:55 p.m. at 1340.60. _______ UPDATE (October 31, 11:59 a.m.): The futures' decisive breach of the 1332.30 support overnight warned of even lower prices to come. Although the $7 rally from the then low at 1330.00 was tradable, it stalled at the midpoint resistance -- a further warning of impending weakness. At the moment, the  thrashing around indicates a downside target, and potentially tradable low, at 1316.70.

GCZ13 – December Gold (Last:1356.30)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

The futures have been up as much as $8 in off-hours trading, most of it achieved in a single bound shortly after 10 p.m. The thrust missed being bullishly impulsive on the 5-minute chart by 90 cents, raising a yellow flag for night owls attempting to leverage a low-risk, 'camo' handhold for the next leg up. For those game to try nonetheless, I'll suggest looking for your entry on the one-minute chart or less after a signal at 1356.90 has been tripped on the 5-minute chart.  Immediate upside potential would be to the 1362.40 target shown, predicated on an easy move through the 1358.70 p midpoint represented by the red line. Above 1362.40, you should look for a minimum 1364.90, a target derived by sliding point 'A' down to the overnight low at 1350.50.

GCZ13 – December Gold (Last:1349.60)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

The two very subtle external peaks that I've labeled in the chart (inset) look promising for traders seeking a low-risk way to get aboard. The rally has progressed far enough to have become a tricky proposition for new buyers, but my gut feeling is that either of the 'look-to-the-left' highs shown is capable of generating winning entry with relatively little stress. _______ UPDATE (October 28, 2:46 p.m. EDT): Friday's rally failed by four ticks to surpass the lower of the two peaks I'd labeled. This is ever-so-mildly bearish for the short-term, but the peaks can still be used nonetheless to get long in the way I'd described, and any thrust that surpasses them would change my short-term bias back to bullish.

GCZ13 – December Gold (Last:1338.60)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

Emboldened by the growing obviousness that Quantitative Easing will be held in place more or less forever (QEF!), gold is moving with greater ease and confidence than we've seen in quite a while. I've been cautiously optimistic in recent days, holding to a 1350.10 target for the December contract as a minimum upside projection for the short-term.  Yesterday's $33 rally came with $6 of that number, and gold bulls should feel most encouraged by the way it played out. The first stage of the rally was a $26 surge that lasted about 30 minutes.  It was the  kind of take-no-prisoners short squeeze that would have left bears off-balance and ill at ease.  Then, after a brief pullback of about $12, the bad guys were under assault once again from a wrenching, $18 climb that peaked at 1444.70. They were still on the ropes eight hours later when we went to press, with the futures reluctant so far to give up any more than $5 of the afternoon's gains. Unlike so many promising rallies in gold that have cooled too quickly, this one deserves high marks for its seeming sustainability. The price action noted above is the reason for this, but you can see it in graphic form in the chart (inset).  At this point, the 1350.10 target should be viewed as a lead-pipe cinch.  However, if it's easily exceeded on the first try, we could confidently adjust our sights higher, to a 1475.60 Hidden Pivot target noted in an update that went out to subscribers Tuesday morning. We'll get a good read on the accuracy and reliability of this target once we've seen how the December contract interacts with its 1363.30 sibling midpoint. 1475.60 will become my minimum upside target once 1363.30 has been exceeded by more than $1. If

GCZ13 – December Gold (Last:1341.10)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

Gold is slow coming out of the gate Sunday night, but at least the movement is up rather than down. Also, price action is sufficiently cautious that we might infer DaBoyz are not very confident about which direction to take things. These factors would seem to favor a continuation of the rally from last week's 1251.00 low (which, incidentally, occurred just an inch from a longstanding bear-market target we'd been using at 1250.50, a Hidden Pivot).  Night owls should take note of the fact that, even on the 30-minute chart (see inset), there is a potential set-up for a low-risk 'camouflage' entry, with upside potential over the near term to as high as 1350.10 . The opportunity would of course be most compelling following a B-C pullback from just above (i.e., 2-4 ticks) the 1318.90 'external' peak that I've labeled. A similarly enticing opportunity would become manifest on a pullback from just above peak #2 at 1320.70. I've sketched the first scenario hypothetically for your further, explicit guidance. _______ UPDATE (10:46 a.m. EDT): The trade worked more or less as I'd sketched it, although it tripped a false entry signal at 1317.10 around 9:00 p.m. that, executed on the 30-min chart (i.e., without camouflage) would have produced a per contract loss of $200.  A second entry opportunity 15 minutes later came at 1316.70, and you could have ridden it beyond the 1322.10 target, to as high as 1323.90, for a gain per contract of as much as $720.  Of course, both trades could have -- and should have -- been done via camouflage to limit entry risk. This would have reduced profits on the second trade, since 75% of the position would have been exited by the time D=1322.10 was reached. But even then, going by-the-book, you 'd have reaped

GCZ13 – December Gold (Last:1315.60)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Yesterday's blitzkrieg rally was sufficient to turn all of the intraday charts -- although not the 'daily; that would take a print at 1353.90 -- bullishly impulsive.  It won't require much of a pullback to prep the December contract for another leg up, but when it comes, you should try to board at the signaled 'x' entry point, zooming down to perhaps the three-minute chart to find an equivalent and less risky 'x' in microcosm. I've sketched this out (see inset) for your further guidance. _______ UPDATE (12:07 p.m. EDT):  All signs are still bullish, but the futures are taking their sweet old time consolidating. In practice, this will make it difficult, at least today, to get long via camouflage. I'd be tempted myself to stake out at least a small position at the close, however, since a continuation of the uptrend on Sunday seems like a better-than-coin-toss bet, at least to me.

GCZ13 – December Gold (Last:1319.20)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Buyers have managed to push the futures to the midpoint resistance of the pattern discussed here yesterday, but the action at the red line is too timid to offer any assurance that the 1302.80 target with which it is associated will be reached. Regardless, because the rally refreshed the bullish impulsiveness of the lesser charts, it should be traded with a bullish bias. This implies entry at an 'x' trigger such as the one shown. Because the theoretical entry risk would be around 1.80, though, you'll need to initiate the trade, camouflage-style, at the point 'x' of an even smaller pattern. My guess is that you may need to drill down to the 15- or 30-second chart to find the opportunity you're looking for. _______ UPDATE (10:51 a.m. EDT): On the 3-minute chart, the first 'camouflage' entry trigger that perfectly met our criteria occurred at 3:21 a.m.:  1278.80. The initial theoretical risk was 1.20, but one could have reduced it to as little as 0.30 on charts of sub-minute degree. If at least two fills are reported in the chat room, I'll establish tracking guidance.

GCZ13 – December Gold (Last:1272.80)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

Gold has bounced $27 from within a few ticks of the 1250.50 target we'd been using as a minimum downside objective for weeks, but now what? Someone asked in the chat room how this Hidden Pivot support can survive if Silver is about to dip below $20 as forecast. The short answer is that it can't -- and probably won't.  That's just a hunch, but we can nevertheless give the December contract the benefit of the doubt right now, since it ended the regular session by creating a second bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart. Moreover, because this latest A-B thrust is not likely to be read by others as a breakout, we can use it to initiate a long position via camouflage. For your further guidance, I've sketched this out in detail in the accompanying chart. _______ UPDATE (October 16, 10:20 a.m.): Trading the pattern I'd drawn could have produced a gain of as much as $1030 per contract overnight, since the futures made it to p=1284.20 and then some without incident after tripping an entry signal at 1278.90. However, the rally died $5.70 shy of the D target at 1294.90, implying that weakness below the surface remains dominant.

GCZ13 – December Gold (Last:1272.60)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

Well, Gold finally generated that bullish impulse leg we've waited for so patiently. Unfortunately, and suspiciously, it took a nearly $30 shakedown first (see inset) to sufficiently deplete sellers so that the impulsive rally could be 'arranged'. Under the circumstances, I'll stick with our longstanding target at 1250.50 for now, although I'd become a Raging Bull, at least for the short term, if the December contract were to thrust above 1337.90.  _______ UPDATE (Sunday afternoon):  Just one change: Lower the threshold at which we could infer a bullish resurgence is 1298.40, which corresponds to a minor 'external' peak from 10/10 visible on the 15-minute chart.  _______ UPDATE (October 15, 10:06 a.m. EDT):  Gold has trampolined $27 this morning (see inset) from 50 cents above the $1250.50 Hidden Pivot we'd been using as a minimum downside target for weeks.  Since I had suggested buying aggressively down there, please let me know in the chat room of any orders filled so that I can establish a tracking position for your further guidance.