Gold

With a minor upward adjustment, the bearish target given here last week remains valid. I've revised it to 1272.00 from 1271.60 based on the hourly chart shown. (The original pattern we used to target the move came from the 240-minute chart).  The Hidden Pivot is well situated for tightly stopped bottom-fishing, but as always, a decisive breach would portend more weakness ahead. Keep in mind that an 1125.10 bear-market target first broached here a while back (from the weekly continuous chart, where A= 1487.20 on May 3) remains viable. It would be actively in play if the futures were to close beneath its 1279.00 midpoint sibling for two consecutive weekly bars.

Yesterday's tout caught the exact high and low of a wild, $30 swing. The 1326.00 top came within four ticks of my target. For reasons that were made explicit in the tout, the failure of buyers to push above it telegraphed the nasty swoon that was soon to follow. The plunge hit 1296.00 -- 40 cents above a correction target at 1295.40 I'd disseminated earlier in the week with the futures trading around $1312. The futures were on thin ice Thursday night, threatening to fall a further $22, to 1284.10, if the 1299.10 Hidden Pivot midpoint support (red line) fails. (Note: It can be bottom-fished with a micro-tight stop-loss.)  The outlook would brighten for bulls, however, if they can muster a push today exceeding the 1327.30 'external' peak shown. If that happens, it could set up a potentially powerful rally next week. ______ UPDATE (11:09 a.m. EST):  The futures have plummeted anew, breaching the 1284.10 target by several dollars. This implies more downside to at least 1271.60. That crystal-clear target can be bottom-fished and is derived from the following coordinates (240-minute chart): A=1359.60 (10/30); B= 1305.20 (11/5).

Although a big-picture target from the weekly chart lends authority to the mildly bearish, 1295.60 target we're bidding, the lesser charts show bulls unwilling to give much ground. They'll face a crucial test today, however, since the promising impulse leg they generated on the hourly chart yesterday looks too good to fail. It projects to 1326.40, with an entry tripwire at 1317.30 that has already been hit.  Buyers should be able to push past the 1320.30 midpoint pivot with ease, which would all but clinch a follow-through to 1326 or higher. However, if there's any sign whatsoever of a struggle, look for the futures to relapse to 1295.60.

Minor rallies continue to fail, implying that this vehicle may need to go lower before it can gain good traction.  How much lower?  The 1306.40 midpoint pivot shown should be held in mind as a logical minimum downside target for the very near-term.  Traders can bottom-fish there with a 1305.90 stop-loss tied to a single contract, but if it's hit be prepared for more downside to as low as 1295.60.  If you use 'camouflage' to get long and can hold the theoretical entry risk down to no more than six ticks, a four-contract trade can be attempted. _______ UPDATE (10:15 p.m. EDT):  The midpoint support was exceeded by 80 cents -- enough to put the burden of proof squarely on bulls.  If the slippage hits 1295.60, I'll suggest bottom-fishing there with the tightest stop-loss you can abide.  Officially, we'll bid 1295.60 for one contract, stop 1294.90, but camouflageurs can step up the size. Please keep me apprised in the chat room so that I can establish a tracking position for your further guidance.

The low of yesterday's selloff fell $2 shy of the 1316.70 target that I put out intraday. The failure of sellers to achieve this target is ostensibly bullish, but it will now take an impulsive upthrust on the intraday charts to put bulls back in charge again. This has yet to occur; in fact, bulls have so far failed to surpass any prior peaks, let alone do so with the kind of verve we should like to see.  If it resurfaces, the first place it would be noticeable is on the 5-minute chart (see inset), via thrust that exceeds either or both of the two labeled peaks. Night owls looking for a way to board should pay them close heed, since either could be leveraged via camouflage. Looking at a bigger picture, bulls despondent about Thursday's weakness should check out the daily chart, which puts the selloff in a different perspective. Indeed, the $25 drop seems relatively minor when measured against the $111 rally off mid-October's 1251.00 low. Bulls might also want to ponder the ostensible reason given by the usual talking-head imbeciles for the drop in gold -- i.e., that The Tapeworm is back on the table.  Let me repeat this for the umpteenth time:  With the economy sinking into a morass because of Obamacare, an incipient crash in the real estate market and steady slippage in corporate earnings, any Fed tightening is about as likely as a Martian invasion. It's inflate-or-die, just as it has been for the last ten years, and bullion investors should act accordingly.

The recent high missed my 1362.40 target by 0.60, a failure with little technical significance. However, the ensuing pullback has set bulls and bears a-dueling. The former still hold a short-term edge, but the picture would darken on a print below the 1335.30 'external' low shown.  As of this moment, that would appear likely, since the futures have already crushed the midpoint support of a pattern targeted on 1332.30. The location of that Hidden Pivot support makes it a good place to attempt bottom-fishing, and that's what I'll recommend if and when it is touched. Camouflageurs should zoom down to the 1-minute chart for an entry signal, but if you'd rather do it the easy way, try a straight bid for a single contract at 1332.40, stop 1331.90. _______ UPDATE (9:58 a.m. EDT):  The futures turned higher off an evening low that fell 7 ticks from its 1137.60 correction target (1-min chart, a=1344.20 at 9:03 p.m.; b=1340.20). The first camo trigger that would have gotten you long -- with little stress -- occurred around 9:55 p.m. at 1340.60. _______ UPDATE (October 31, 11:59 a.m.): The futures' decisive breach of the 1332.30 support overnight warned of even lower prices to come. Although the $7 rally from the then low at 1330.00 was tradable, it stalled at the midpoint resistance -- a further warning of impending weakness. At the moment, the  thrashing around indicates a downside target, and potentially tradable low, at 1316.70.

The futures have been up as much as $8 in off-hours trading, most of it achieved in a single bound shortly after 10 p.m. The thrust missed being bullishly impulsive on the 5-minute chart by 90 cents, raising a yellow flag for night owls attempting to leverage a low-risk, 'camo' handhold for the next leg up. For those game to try nonetheless, I'll suggest looking for your entry on the one-minute chart or less after a signal at 1356.90 has been tripped on the 5-minute chart.  Immediate upside potential would be to the 1362.40 target shown, predicated on an easy move through the 1358.70 p midpoint represented by the red line. Above 1362.40, you should look for a minimum 1364.90, a target derived by sliding point 'A' down to the overnight low at 1350.50.

The two very subtle external peaks that I've labeled in the chart (inset) look promising for traders seeking a low-risk way to get aboard. The rally has progressed far enough to have become a tricky proposition for new buyers, but my gut feeling is that either of the 'look-to-the-left' highs shown is capable of generating winning entry with relatively little stress. _______ UPDATE (October 28, 2:46 p.m. EDT): Friday's rally failed by four ticks to surpass the lower of the two peaks I'd labeled. This is ever-so-mildly bearish for the short-term, but the peaks can still be used nonetheless to get long in the way I'd described, and any thrust that surpasses them would change my short-term bias back to bullish.

Emboldened by the growing obviousness that Quantitative Easing will be held in place more or less forever (QEF!), gold is moving with greater ease and confidence than we've seen in quite a while. I've been cautiously optimistic in recent days, holding to a 1350.10 target for the December contract as a minimum upside projection for the short-term.  Yesterday's $33 rally came with $6 of that number, and gold bulls should feel most encouraged by the way it played out. The first stage of the rally was a $26 surge that lasted about 30 minutes.  It was the  kind of take-no-prisoners short squeeze that would have left bears off-balance and ill at ease.  Then, after a brief pullback of about $12, the bad guys were under assault once again from a wrenching, $18 climb that peaked at 1444.70. They were still on the ropes eight hours later when we went to press, with the futures reluctant so far to give up any more than $5 of the afternoon's gains. Unlike so many promising rallies in gold that have cooled too quickly, this one deserves high marks for its seeming sustainability. The price action noted above is the reason for this, but you can see it in graphic form in the chart (inset).  At this point, the 1350.10 target should be viewed as a lead-pipe cinch.  However, if it's easily exceeded on the first try, we could confidently adjust our sights higher, to a 1475.60 Hidden Pivot target noted in an update that went out to subscribers Tuesday morning. We'll get a good read on the accuracy and reliability of this target once we've seen how the December contract interacts with its 1363.30 sibling midpoint. 1475.60 will become my minimum upside target once 1363.30 has been exceeded by more than $1. If