Gold

Even with a double entry signal (see inset) the futures were having difficulty getting airborne late Monday night. That said, entry off the small pattern at the rightmost edge of the chart required an initial stop-loss of five-ticks -- just within our range for this vehicle. Since the opportunity is past, however, I am proffering the chart to give you an idea of the kind of set-up you should be looking for.  There are still a couple of 'external' peaks yet to be exceeded in this picture, and they have the potential to reduce theoretical entry risk to perhaps as little as three ticks.  Step back to the hourly chart, however, and the picture is moderately bearish, with a 'D' downside target at 1294.10 that will become an odds-on bet if the midpoint support at 1305.40 gets mauled.  Either number can be bottom-fished with a tight-stop-loss, or more conservatively using camouflage.  Coordinates for the pattern are: A=1325.30 (11:00 a.m.), and B=1302.70 (5:00 p.m.)

With Sunday night's $28 surge, December Gold's 60-minute and weekly charts are now synchronously bullish. However, while the former has already tripped a buy signal, the latter will need to hit 1345.20 -- $9.30 above the so-far high -- to do likewise. Traders should come to the task with a bullish bias, but I'd suggest waiting for a second point 'C' low to form before you look for a 'camouflage' entry signal on the lesser charts.

With Wall Street visualizing Whirled Peas and the transformation of the Middle East into a boring oasis of stability, gold has somehow managed to hold its own.  Even so, the breach of the 1366.90 midpoint support shown in the chart has put the burden of proof on bulls for now, since it portends more downside over the near term to as low as 1338.80, the 'D' target of the pattern. (Note: You can bottom-fish there with a tight stop-loss.) Alternatively, the most bullish thing that could happen would be for the futures to reverse direction and create a bullish impulse leg on the 'hourly' by pushing above the 1400.00 peak recorded last Thursday.  Less decisive but encouraging nonetheless would be a pop exceeding the 1380.30 'external' peak made yesterday on the way down. _______ UPDATE (9:52 a.m. EDT): Last night's $37 takedown exceeded my 1338.80 target by nearly 13 points, activating a new correction target at 1319.80 (A=1434.00 on 8/28, daily chart) that lies about $6 beneath the so-far low.  You can bottom-fish there as well with a tight stop-loss, perhaps emboldened by the fact that the futures took their biggest bounce overnight -- a $6.30 move -- from exactly 1338.00.  If you are concerned that this nasty selloff is something worse than a correction, check out this pattern on the weekly chart to be reassured that it is not: A=1271.80 on 8/9; B=1434.00 on 8/30; and C, still informed=(prospectively) 1319.80. ______ UPDATE (September 13, 1:08 a.m. EDT): Gold's ups and downs have been very precisely predictable lately. Yesterday, for one, the futures bottomed at exactly 1320.40 -- 0.60 from the target proffered above -- then rallied $10, so some subscribers may have caught a nice ride. The bullish tide has receded by nearly $8 since (see inset, a fresh

It's possible some subscribers are still long from Friday's bottom since the 1359.00 correction target I'd disseminated the night before caught the low of a $35 bounce within two ticks. The rally was only mildly impulsive, however, since it sputtered out just shy of an important 'external' peak at 1400.00 recorded a day earlier.  It must be displayed on the 30-minute chart to be usable, however (see inset). In that context, buyers have yet to push past midpoint resistance at 1397.60, and so that will remain our minimum upside target as long as the point 'C' low at 1380.30 remains intact. Once 1397.60 has been breached by more than 1.00 point or so, the 1414.90 Hidden Pivot (aka 'D') with which it's associated will be in play. Traders should note that there is enough distance between 1397.60 and the obvious peak at 1400.00 to set up a nice entry point if there's a b-c pullback from somewhere in-between. ________ UPDATE (September 9, 6:52 p.m. EDT): Zzzzzzz. Yesterday's constipated action left my recommendation unchanged.

Yesterday's selloff doesn't look very impressive on the daily chart (see inset), since it amounted to no more than an inside day.  It would take a move through two 'prior' lows to turn this chart impulsively bearish. The possibility cannot be ruled out, but until it happens there is no point in worrying about a day or two of moderate weakness.  The actual print required is 1351.50, a tick beneath the #2 external that I've labeled. In the meantime, if you're looking to get the jump on a bullish turn, you should hunker down on the 5-minute chart, where a 1400.00 print would provide subtle evidence that Gold is lightening up. _______ UPDATE: Gold tanked Thursday after kissing 1400.00 to create a faintly bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart. There was no entry signal following the high, however, since the would-be 'b-c' correction leg just kept on going.  At the close, the futures appeared headed down to at least 1359.00 (a=1431.00 on 8/28), or perhaps 1356.00 if any lower.  Both of these numbers have the potential to produce a tradable bounce, so camouflageurs should pay close heed. _______ UPDATE (September 6, 9:47 a.m.):  Gold this morning has trampolined $35 0ff a 1358.80 low that lay just two ticks from the one predicted at 1359.00.  If you caught a ride from the exact bottom, take a victory lap in the chat room.  Ideally, you should still be long at least 25% of the original position and swinging for the fences.

Gold reversed sharply yesterday from just above the 1382.80 midpoint pivot I'd flagged.  That was bullish in itself, but even moreso was the reversal's having generated a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart. Notice as well that the intraday high came within a hair of the 1414.80 midpoint pivot. That was a logical place for buyers to take a breather, but I expect them to push past the midpoint by no later than Wednesday morning. If so, a two-day close above 1414.80 will put the 1456.00 rally target shown in play. Camouflageurs should look diligently for uptrending ABCs to ride following any pullback from above 1414.80 (aka 'p'). That's because the futures will be signaling a breakout on our terms that relatively few other traders and technicians will have noticed. _________ UPDATE (9:36 a.m. EDT): Last night's takedown occurred after the futures had poked above the 1414.80 benchmark we were using. The overshoot was $1.60 -- mildly bullish but still well shy of the two-day close above the pivot we'd stipulated . The futures are now in 'dueling' mode, but bears would gain the upper hand short-term on a print today beneath Tuesday's 1384.30 low.

The yellow flag is out, since the drubbing December Gold received on Sunday pushed it well beneath a clear target at 1390.10 that had served as our minimum downside objective. This portends more weakness, presumably at least to the 1382.80 midpoint support shown in the chart. Any lower, however, and we should brace for more selling to at least 1367.20, or perhaps 1355.60 if the first number is smashed. All of these numbers are Hidden Pivot supports, and each can be leveraged for the purpose of 'camo' bottom-fishing. I'd suggest using charts of 5-minute degree or less, keeping entry risk limited to no more than five ticks theoretical.  My gut feeling is that this selloff is gratuitous -- a mechanical reaction to the important rally target at 1328.80 where we'd expected tradable resistance. The correction would begin to look more serious on a print today or tomorrow below 1351.60, since that would generate a robustly bearish impulse leg on the daily and larger intraday charts

December Gold spent the day playing toe-sies with the midpoint Hidden Pivot support of the corrective pattern shown (see inset), teasing and annoying so far rather than threatening. The move is bearishly impulsive nonetheless, and so we should pay attention if sellers push the futures more than $1-$2 below the red line (p=1403.30) today, or close this vehicle below it, since that would augur more downside to as low as 1390.10 over the near term.

Bulls paused for breath midway between two Hidden Pivot targets -- one major at 1428.80, already achieved; and a lesser one at 1439.40 given here yesterday. The fact that the December contract did so after pushing above the 1426.00 'external' peak from June 6 refreshed the bullish impulsiveness of the daily chart and affirmed that buyers are eager to forge higher as soon as this so-far very shallow correction has run its course. As noted earlier, a two-day close above 1428.80 would greatly shorten the odds of a run-up to $1500 or higher. Traders looking to board can try bottom-fishing near the p midpoint of any corrective abc patterns that develop on the 15-minute chart. In that regard, the pattern shown (see inset) could prove useful. The futures have been screwing the pooch near the midpoint support for an entire day, and the next move could go either way. There's a bull trade here, but 'camo' traders will need to zoom down to the 3-minute chart to create a proper entry set-up. Otherwise, if the futures head lower, 1408.30 is where you should plan to do your buying, camouflage-style or otherwise.  Eagle-eyed Pivoteers may notice that I cheated to come up with a point 'C' high on the chart, but the few rules we use are of course made to be broken.