Gold

Monday night's bullish stab stopped an inch shy of the 1408.00 midpoint pivot shown. Assuming Gold gets second wind -- a logical outcome, since there are a couple of larger, bullish ABC patterns driving the futures right now -- a move even slightly above p=1408.00 could be expected to generate sufficient thrust for a follow-through to the 1427.60 target shown.  It is close enough to the 1428.80 target given here two weeks ago, when the future were trading around 1311, that we  should expect to see some stopping power. If not and gold blasts through it, or closes above it for two consecutive days, we should take this as evidence that buyers have raised their sights to 1500.

The futures have pushed above mid-June's 1396.50 high Sunday night, generating the first bullish impulse leg of daily-chart degree since the rally began on June 28. This has effectively refreshed the trend, but as always we should remain caution in our assumptions. In practice, this will mean using the so-far stubby rally that has begun from 1351.60 as a point A (see inset) in order to calculate an entry point (via camouflage, presumably), a midpoint resistance and D target. Of course, a point B high has not yet been created, and it's possible the futures will exceed yet another 'external' peak or even two before this happens. That would strengthen the bullish case for weeks to come, but even if it doesn't happen, you should view any pullback that takes the form of b-c leg as a buying opportunity.  Entry points signaled thereupon on the daily chart should be leveraged on charts of much lower degree -- presumably the five-minute chart or less.

Gold's performance so far this week has been disappointing but technically of little consequence. However, because the downtrend penetrated a midpoint support which earlier yesterday had evinced a fairly precise bounce, we should assume that the correction will continue down to at least the midpoint's 'D' sibling at 1345.50. A decisive penetration of that number would imply still more weakness, while a rally exceeding 1367.40 would put bulls back in command, at least for the short-term. _______ UPDATE (August 21, 10:36 p.m. EDT):  I signaled a bullish trade via an e-mail alert about 30 minutes ago, but it was stopped out shortly thereafter. Beause the 'camo' pattern looked so promising, I'm given to infer that gold will remain weak for at least the next several hours or possibly longer. The outlook would brighten, however, on a print at  1368.80. That's a tick above an 'external' peak visible on the five-minute chart, and it could set up another subtle buying opportunity like the one noted above.

A HIdden Pivot target at 1411.60 remains my minimum rally objective for the near term.  Notice that Sunday night's modest move toward that number has stalled precisely at the 1383.60 midpoint pivot of a minor bullish pattern -- one whose 'D' target precisely coincides with the target of the larger one given here earlier.  That implies it will have double stopping power -- but also that any decisive move past it will all but guarantee a finishing stroke to at least 1428.60, a target given here ten days ago when December Gold was trading just above $1300.

Buyers blew past the 1341 midpoint pivot of the pattern shown so easily that a follow-through to its 1411.60 'D' sibling appears all but guaranteed. The rally played out in less than ten minutes, leaving bulls and bears to duke out for, so far, the next eight hours.  Traders have the prospect of a nearly $50 ride, but I'm not going to pretend it'll be easy to get aboard, even for expert camouflageurs.  I would expect the next leap to occur only after a bamboozling series of feints higher and lower, the latter blowing any workable scheme of risk management to smithereens.

An apparent consolidation above the 1334.90 HP resistance shown implies that a finishing stroke to at least 1354.70 lies just ahead. I'd broached a 1358.90 target here as well, and we may see some hesitation at the number.  However, an easy move through it would be telegraphing a push above 1400. Two targets would be in play at that point: 1411.60, the 'D' Hidden Pivot of the big pattern shown; and 1428.80, a number given here earlier that comes from another, equally compelling, pattern. The lower number would be our minimum upside objective once 1358.90 has been surpassed.

The futures have been up as much as $13 this morning after basing overnight at 1315. The move is not yet bullishly impulsive on the hourly chart, but it would take a further push of just 1.90 above today's so-far high at 1333.60 to remedy that.  Any pullback from just above the relevant peak (1335.40 on 8/13 at noon EDT)) should be viewed as a buying opportunity, but you'll need to position the trade on the 5-minute chart or less to reduce entry risk to our wonted 4-5 ticks.

Monday's strong rally occurred in the space of about 18 minutes, but it has taken DaBoyz nearly eleven hours to beat it back down to levels where, presumably, they can accumulate more gold before they let go of the reins. Careful here!  We've become so used to seeing bullion rallies evaporate as fast as dew on cactus that we'll need to guard against assuming that is the case now.  One reason for being skeptical about selloffs at the moment is that we still have some unachieved rally targets: a minor Hidden Pivot resistance at 1350.40, and another at 1358.90. If these impediments are easily brushed aside, however, we should confidently expect the push to hit a minimum 1428.80 over the near term (i.e., 7-12 days).  Traders looking for a low-risk entry opportunity should focus on opportunities as subtle as the one shown.  With this vehicle, our goal is to pare initial risk down to no more than four ticks ($40) theoretical per contract.

It's Sunday night, and Gold has been up as much as $21 so far, tracking last Thursday's forecast perfectly. The December contract is currently at 1329.90, just off a 1333.00 high recorded on the opening bar. Keep in mind that the first test of the 1428.80 rally projection proffered here last week will come at its midpoint sibling, 1358.90. An easy or decisive move through it would greatly shorten the odds of a quick follow-through to the higher number. For trading purposes, camouflageurs should try to leverage the 'external' peak at 1334.00 shown in the chart.  Any rally that pulls back from a tick or two above that number would afford an excellent opportunity to get long, especially if the B-C pullback is as shallow as $2 or $3. The expected ride would be to at least 1350.40, a secondary target that has come into focus tonight.