The bounce begun last week from 4963 promises to set up the juiciest shorting opportunity we've seen in this vehicle since last July. The rally has come almost precisely from the sweet spot of the rABC pattern shown, implying that if it touches the green line, a 'mechanical' short from there has a better chance of achieving D=4777.50 than getting stopped out above C=5333.50. The pattern has been useful so far, having correctly signaled the drop that occurred after a theoretical 'conventional' short was triggered on the initial fall through the green line. The new trade is recommended only to subscribers who are comfortable with 'camouflage' triggers that can cut the entry risk by as much as 95%. In this case, the implied 139-point stop loss carries theoretical risk of nearly $7,000 per contract.
The 2488.90 target shown has a good chance of being reached, but there is no reassurance this will happen without an intervening, potentially severe, correction. The future would become an appealing 'mechanical' buy on a pullback to the red line (p=2114.80), and an even more compelling one at, heaven forbid, x=1927.70. What are the odds it will turn out that bad? It's not worth worrying about at the moment, since a reverse pattern on the weekly chart suggests a pullback would not even reach the red line -- would in all likelihood go no lower than 2170.20 (a=2159.00 on 5/5). There is even a chance of perhaps 40% that last week's low at 2304.60 (basis June) will turn out to have been the correction low, since it coincides with p of the same reverse pattern. For a clearer perspective on the larger pattern, here's a continuous monthly chart with a cleaner point 'A' low and a 2514.60 target that corresponds to the June's 2488.90. _______ UPDATE (Apr 30, 3:26 p.m.): With today's breakdown, the June contract has signaled more downside to at least p2=2280.00, but possibly to D=2251.90. The ability of either of these Hidden Pivot supports to resist the selling will give us a better idea concerning how the bigger-picture Hidden Pivot supports identified above will play out. I will continue to track gold and silver very closely, since chat-room interest has been high.
The predicted fall to at least 5055.50 occurred with a selling climax on thin volume Thursday night. This set up an all-but-certain relapse after a brief flurry of buying at the opening bell on Friday. The renewed weakness has greased the track for a further fall to p2=4916.50 as the new week begins, but more likely to D=4777.50. A rally first to x=5194.50, however unlikely, would trigger an appealing 'mechanical' short that you shouldn't pass up if you trade this vehicle. Also, the D target can be bottom-fished with a reverse-pattern trigger that can be calculated using an intraday chart.
I only belatedly discovered the reason for the hard selloff a week ago from 2448.80. That number lies just 0.70 from the target of the very gnarly pattern shown. I still think the June contract has a better than 50% chance of achieving a somewhat higher target at 2514.60 given here earlier. However, we should be very cautious at the moment, since this corrective pattern on the weekly chart suggests the June contract will fall to at least 2309.50 before it finds traction. Worst case would be 2170.20, and we cannot rule it out, but we'll be looking to bottom-fish at p=2309.50 (slightly adjusted from last week) in any case. _______ UPDATE (Apr 23, 1:35 a.m.): The clowns/thieves/Masters of the Universe who erroneously believe they are manipulating this vehicle were themselves manipulated into a nearly $40 plunge when June Gold fell Monday night to a so-far low at 2308.70 -- less than $1 from the Hidden Pivot target I'd flagged above. The $19 bounce that has occurred so far would need to hit 2348.00 to move the futures out of the danger zone; otherwise, look for a further drop to at least 2239.90 (see my chart), a Hidden Pivot support that can be bottom-fished as aggressively as the one at 2309.50.
Bulls have gotten dragged lower for the last two weeks, kicking and screaming every inch of the way. However, I doubt they'll avoid the punitive implications of the reverse pattern shown, with a 4777.50 target that lies 7.5% below Friday's settlement price. It might not turn out so badly, though, since the midpoint Hidden Pivot at 5055.50, which has served lately as our minimum downside objective, could conceivably contain the correction. But if it is decisively exceeded, we shouldn't hesitate to short a rally back up to the green line aggressively.
Mr. Slammy made his appearance late in the day after leaving the futures somewhat shy of the 2514.60 target that we used last week as a bull market lodestar. It will be achieved, rest assured, but not necessarily on our schedule. Friday afternoon's $100 slapdown from the top of a strong rally was so swift and punitive that one might think the solons who regulate the futures markets pass out awards for the most brazen heists by the criminals who control the markets. Their tracks have nonetheless provided a clear technical picture to guide our efforts in trading and positioning bullion. Expect the correction to come down to at least 2309.00, a Hidden Pivot midpoint support. We'll want to bottom-fish there, whether to augment positions or open new ones, so stay tuned to the chat room and/or your email notifications to keep apprised.
The futures have exceeded an ostensibly solid Hidden Pivot target on the weekly chart at 5220.00 by a relatively whopping 13 points (A=2773.00 on 10/14/22). Although this is curious, it is also bullish in theory. Even so, I will use a bearish reverse pattern for this week's analysis, since I suspect the rocket rallies in MSFT, NFLX and some other erstwhile world-beaters are spent, having achieved equally clear targets without exceeding them. It "feels" like a good time for a top, even if bitcoin's wilding spree looks primed for a further run-up to 80,602, a target introduced last week in the chat room. Concerning the E-Mini S&Ps, a sell signal was triggered when the futures touched the green line (x=5194.50) last Thursday. It implies the futures will fall to at least p=5055.50 0n and possibly to 4777.50 before the presumptive correction ends. That would amount to a mere 10.6% drop -- hardly a bear market. Regardless, our trading bias has shifted to bearish for now, subject to cautious observation of upward abcd corrections. If they exceed their d targets, even in charts of small degree, that would warn that the futures are more likely to take out C=5333.50 than fall to p-5055.50.
Although prayer can't hurt, I doubt that it can push June Gold past the 2356.90 target shown any time soon. With the futures peaking just $7 from this daunting Hidden Pivot on Friday, a correction is due soon. We should be prepared for a nasty one, too, since it has taken the June contract more than four years to get there. Even so, we should open our minds to the satisfying possibility that buyers will blow past D with ease. If that happens, accompanied by voracious, insatiable buying, our focus could shift hopefully toward $3000, gold bugs' next dream number. In the meantime, we can use this reverse pattern, with a tentative, worst-case pullback target at 1991.10, to exploit the trend confidently. We'll adjust everything upward if a new high occurs. _______ UPDATE (Apr 8, 12:54 a.m. EDT): Although the June futures have receded from this morning's 2372.50 peak, the $18 overshoot of so clear a target is significant and at least mildly bullish. When a big-pattern target has been exceeded, we usually look at the target of a smaller 'extension' pattern as an alternative. In this case, the lesser pattern's D target at 2367.50 has also been hit -- and somewhat exceeded -- implying gold should correct for perhaps 2-3 days. Here's the chart. And if it doesn't? Ordinarily, I would say June Gold's overshoot of $2372 is quite bullish. But I am all-too-conscious of the fact that subscribers are counting on me to avoid getting crushed if and when the pond scum that Spartacus refers to as 'Mr Slammy' makes his all-but-inevitable appearance. Greatly complicating things is Mr Market's propensity to fuck as many of us as possible, as often as He can. That could mean He continues to push the precious metals complex higher without rest, so that
There are no fewer than four bullish patterns at work in the chart shown, so I've settled on the one with the most ambitious rally target. It lies at 5399.75, and it is jumping the gun to assure you the futures will get there before they have even touched the midpoint Hidden Pivot (p=5331.38), it seems safe to assume that bulls are not likely to be thwarted. A moment's pause could be fatal to the psychotic energy that has impelled the broad averages heedlessly higher, even as 'bubble' warnings have begun to pop up even in the WSJ and at Bloomberg.com. As always, the ease with which buyers penetrate p the first time they encounter it will tell us all we need to know about trend strength. _______ UPDATE (April 2, 9:38 a.m.): Here's something we've seen only very rarely in the last 15 years, and not at all during the psychotic, suck-everyone-in phase of the bull market begun last October: a bullish pattern that aborted without having reached p, never mind D. The implications are of course bearish, at least for the near term. I take them seriously because MSFT never got more than a few pennies above the 430.58 high I've been saying since last January would mark the end of the bull market. We shall see.
The futures missed the 5326.25 rally target last week by 3.50 points, denying us the fruits of a precisely crafted entry trigger but effectively fulfilling the target. It took a month to achieve, so we should expect any correction from these levels to last for at least 5 to 8 days. Any less would suggest bulls are all-too-eager to cut loose. If so the 5428.25 target displayed above this week's commentary can be used as a minimum upside projection. It is just a 2.6% romp from Friday's close.
