Silver's chart, although clearly bullish, has all the problems of gold's and then some. The pattern that produced the 24.955 target has a dubious impulse leg that failed to surpass any 'external' peaks. Also, there is an authoritative trendline just above last week's highs that is not likely to be a pushover. And finally, the futures spent the last two days of the week head-butting a secondary pivot at 24.20 that refused to give way. My gut feeling is that the target will be achieved anyway, but I'll wait for the futures to push above some daunting 'external' peaks recorded in July and August before we break out the bubbly. _______ UPDATE (Nov 24): Silver's chart handily outperformed gold's last week, shortening the odds of a further push to the 24.955 target given above. What happens after that will be crucial to the intermediate-term picture, since an 'external' peak at 25.425 recorded on August 30 will beckon a test of buyers' enthusiasm. ______ UPDATE (Nov 28, 4:30 p.m.): Helped by last week's wicked upthrust, the December contract today hit and then exceeded the 222222224.93 target shown. It is slightly lower than the one given here previously, but the pattern to which it is tied is sufficiently compelling for us to infer the small overshoot of the target on the close portends even higher prices this week. Look for a push above August 25.035 peak, but with some potential rally-stopping 'voodoo' resistance prices between here and 25.68.
More slippage to at least D=22.04 looks unavoidable, given the way sellers obliterated the midpoint support (p) early Friday morning. This Hidden Pivot lies close enough to a cluster of obvious lows recorded in mid-October near 21. They look incapable of arresting silver's fall for long, implying a further fall to October lows near 21 in search of traction. There's a Hidden Pivot support at 21.69 you can use for purposes of precise bottom-fishing (daily, A-23.24 on 10/20). _______ UPDATE Nov 14, 8:07 p.m.): The futures trampolined higher after briefly dipping below the 22.04 Hidden Pivot noted above. Now, if they can shove past p=23.44 of this pattern, they should be presumed bound for D=24.95.
Recent price action in silver does not justify a bold prediction at the moment. However, my patiently bullish outlook for gold implies it will drag silver higher when the time comes. The most positive thing that can be said of the latter is that the spike high that occurred on October 20 exceeded an external peak at 23.81 that would likely have trapped many enthusiastic buyers badly. That means the moderate selloff since has been corrective and should be viewed as a buying opportunity. As such, our focus will be on doing so on weakness that meets our criteria for bottom-fishing. Stay tuned.
The spike that capped the recent rally narrowly failed to surpass an 'external' peak at 24.05 recorded a month earlier. It was not all we might have hoped for. But there was more resistance than appeared, including a second, very sharp peak that caught bulls off guard before crushing them in a two-day cascade. Now, looking on the bright side, with gold promising to drag silver higher, we should expect this pullback to give way to an exuberant thrust that clears not just the prior peaks, but also a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 24.02. Once the December contract is above them, we'll be able to trade 'em up as bulls cruise to at least p2=25.60.
Silver's rally last week wasn't quite as impressive as gold's, but it did manage to somewhat exceed the 23.70 target of the middling 'reverse pattern' we'd been using to stay on the right side of the trend. The next significant target is 27.18, a Hidden Pivot derived from a conventional pattern on the daily chart where A=20.61 on March 8. However, because we can assume silver will not ultimately lag far behind gold, I'll air a 28.15 target that is shown in the inset chart. Critical resistance, and possible confirmation of the pattern, will come at p=24.83, my minimum upside target.
Friday's pop through the red line left no doubt that the rally will reach the 23.695 target of the middling reverse pattern shown. We can trade confidently with a bullish bias until then, but it is what happens thereafter that matters. A decisive move through the Hidden Pivot or a two-day close above it would portend a likely follow-through that tests the 26.940 peak recorded in May. In any event, the next 80 cents of the ascent looks so certain that we might expect half of it to occur when the futures resume trading Sunday evening. _______ UPDATE (Oct 16, 12:03 p.m.): Don't believe bullion's sluggishness today; it is being stage-managed by big players who are even more eager than you or I to buy the stuff before it takes off.
Inspired by gold's ballistic move on Friday, I've used an ambitious reverse pattern to project a 42.09 rally target. It is clear and compelling, implying it will work not just for getting trend and targets precisely right, but enabling some profitable trades along the way. The red line (p=36.28) should produce a stall, possibly tradeable, since it closely coincides with a 'voodoo' resistance. Still less uncertain is that GDXJ will achieve the midline, a 7% move from here.
Silver did some agonized basing last week, all of it beneath a Hidden Pivot 'D' support at 21.38. Too late and too deep to save the day? We'll give the rally a week to develop and the temporary benefit of the doubt, but it would need to push above Sep 29's spike high at 23.80 to even hint that bulls may have regained the momentum of 2020. A monthly close above 26.67 would likely clinch it, however, since that's a key 'midpoint resistance on the weekly chart (A=11.640 in March 2020.)
Putting aside the depressing question of how low Silver could go, the 21.75 downside target of the pattern shown is pulsating with opportunity. It's the legit (i.e., non-sausage 'B' low) that brings this picture together. I have not boldfaced the target (or a similar one in gold) because I don't want to queer its potential magic for purposes of bottom-fishing. The daily chart requires a large trigger interval of 37 cents, but I'll suggest looking for a smaller 'natural' trigger on, oh, the 15-min chart when the futures get within 25 cents of the target. _______ UPDATE (Oct 2, 11:28 p.m.): This chart shows how the trade suggested above could have produced a $1,200 win on four contracts going against today's overwhelming downtrend. The 'natural' trigger shown was the only available choice, and it yielded an interval of 5 cents. However, the trade was signaled at 6:15 a.m., well before the regular session began, and many of you have been asleep.
We can dream about Silver's rise to the 36.24 target shown, but for the time being that's all it is: a dream. That's not saying the December contract could not break out within the next 8-10 weeks with a fist-pump above the 27.46 peak recorded in March 2022, but until that happens there is no point getting all het up about the prospect. At the moment, Silver has been tough merely to trade, since the futures have oscillated mostly within a single Hidden Pivot band for ten months. They are also trading toward the middle of a wider range that has persisted since July 2020. Bottom line, if you see anything even remotely interesting in this chart, you are hallucinating.
