Silver ended its best week in recent memory at a level that appeared to exhaust the possibilities of a large, bullish pattern begun in October. It would be natural for the futures to pull back, or even to correct to as low as 23.23. That's the Hidden Pivot target of this bearish reverse pattern, which has played out since last December. The futures would have to fall to the green line (x=26.52) for the pattern to be officially in play, but we can still watch for signs of tiredness in the way patterns both bullish and bearish play out on the lesser charts. Easy moves through midpoint resistances will be the best indicator of the trend, which has been tortuously upward for more than a year. It followed a powerful A-B impulse leg in 2020 that projects to 36.03. Here's the chart, with a highly promising development from last week. _______ UPDATE (Apr 8, 1:28 p.m.): May Silver has overshot a major rally target at 27.54 by 65 cents, which is bullish. Accordingly, I have raised the 'c' high on the reverse pattern to 28.19, today's so-far high, in order to reset the correction/sell-signal tripwire at 27.10. The new p support, a potentially opportune spot for bottom-fishing, lies at 26.00. ______ UPDATE (Apr 11, 9:51 a.m.): A new high at 28.65 has raised the theoretical 'sell' trigger to 27.56. I am not explicitly recommending a short sale there, just creating a signal to tell us when May Silver may have entered a corrective cycle with the potential to bring it down as much as an additional $3.29.
Last week's tedious grind eked out only a minuscule gain, but that will have little bearing on the still-strong likelihood of the 27.34 target being reached. A pullback to the green line (x=23.47) would trigger a high-caliber 'mechanical' buy, but it seems unlikely that Mr. Market will gift us with such a succulent opportunity. There will always be opportunities to get long intraday, however, so you should stay close to the chat room and your email Notifications if this vehicle interests you. _______ UPDATE (Apr 3, 10:36 a.m.): Two powerful upthrusts have brought May Silver within easy distance of the 27.34 target. If it is easily penetrated, expect more upside to 27.55, a more daunting Hidden Pivot resistance (Daily, A= 21.24 on 3/8).
Silver continues to look like a bull with Mad Cow's disease as it makes its way in tortuous fashion to the 27.34 rally target we've been using for the last several weeks. Friday's dirge tripped a 'mechanical' buy at the red line (p=24.76). but like gold, it failed to reach p2=26.905 before pulling back. The stop-loss would be at 23.90, and I think the trade will work. However, I am not recommending it officially because the set-up is not strictly kosher.
No change. The 27.34 rally target given here earlier still obtains. The initial upside penetration of p=24.765 was hardly decisive, but that is insufficient reason to believe the target won't be reached. Buyers are going to take their own sweet time getting there, though, and that would likely hold true if the futures swoon to x=23.478, generating a 'mechanical' buying signal. It would likely be good enough for government work, but don't expect to cash out for a partial profit soon after getting long.
I characterized last week's price action as 'mildly discouraging' in the chart (see inset), but compared to gold's stellar performance, Silver's dirge was not merely discouraging, but pathetic. The rally stalled almost precisely at p=24.76 of a pattern that projects to 27.34, and I can offer no assurances that the resistance will get pulped next week. Whatever happens, I doubt that gold can go much higher without dragging silver along. Please note that a pullback to the green line (x=23.47) would trigger an appealing mechanical' buy, stop 22.18.
Silver badly lagged gold on Friday, but I've given it the benefit of the doubt nonetheless with a bullish rABC pattern that can be used to trade the May contract. Minimum upside is to p=24.28, with a D target at 26.32. The pattern is gnarly enough to be used for positioning a 'mechanical' bid on any one-level pullback. As always, a decisive thrust past p would imply the target is likely to be reached. ______ UPDATE (Mar 5, 6:30 p.m.): Silver continues to lag gold, but not badly enough to worry about. Today's strong start exceeded the D target of a minor pattern but still fell short of p=24.76 of this pattern and an 'external peak at 24.56 from January 2. Look for the correction to come down to 23.16 and reverse if it exceeds 23.80.
I'd expected a modest pop to the 24.08 target of a reverse pattern to start the week. Instead, March Silver stumbled as it emerged from the gate, disappointing bulls yet again and providing yet more evidence that the bull market from hell is on its own time. My hunch is that the target will be achieved, but only after the futures have come down to the 22.385 target of the small rABC pattern shown. This calls for bottom-fishing with a 'camouflage' trigger, meaning an abcd pattern of small degree (the 15-minute chart should do).
Friday's blast through p=23.03 clinched more upside to at least 24.08, the unexciting target of the pattern shown. That would amount to a rally of just 60 cents, but if the futures thrust past this 'hidden resistance', we could look for a test of the peak at 24.895 recorded on December 22. It's too early to start counting our chickens, especially given the way the futures have underperformed since early December. But our bias will be bullish for now. Since the last correction would have trashed a 'mechanical' bid at the green line, I won't suggest attempting to buy there if the opportunity presents itself.
The futures are on a reverse-pattern buy signal triggered nearly three weeks ago at the green line (x=23.06). They haven't done much since, other than disappoint, but the signal remains valid nonetheless until such time as the March contract drops below C=22.04. My gut feeling is that the trade will work, delivering at least a one-level ride to p=22.08. However, I'd be tempted to try again with a tighter reverse pattern if sellers should stop out C. A voodoo number sits about 30 points below it and could be useful for those inclined to trade this vehicle and who are familiar with voodoo set-ups.
Last week's rally to the green line (x=23.15) generated an enticing signal to get 'mechanically' short, but it went unanswered because silver hasn't exactly been a hot discussion topic in the chat rooms. 'Spartacus' offered a link to an ostensibly bullish chart, but only tentatively so. The chart shown in the inset had more immediate consequences, but it remains to be seen whether the so-far one-level move finds its way down to the 'D' target at 21.45. I doubt it, but a further fall to at least p2=22.02 is neither illogical nor unlikely.
