Silver

Silver has yet to confirm gold's breakout last week above a key Hidden Pivot target at 1907.10, but this feat will be hard to avoid, given the power of gold's decisive move through heavy supply and close above it. We'll let the chart continue to tell the story in any event, but an eventual, decisive move through D=24.95 would put the March contract on course for a presumptive test of last spring's dual peaks at, respectively, 26.86 (April 18) and 27.15 (March 8).

March Silver's rally to D=24.95 was signaled a month ago and lies but one good thrust above. That will be scant consolation to bulls who just slogged through yet another week with no reward. Silver futures have outperformed gold, however, having consolidated at p2 while the latter was stuck a level lower at p. A swift pullback to the line (p=22.86) should be used as an opportunity to get long with a 22.16 stop-loss. The risk is substantial, so the trade is recommended only if you know how to cut it by around 90% with a 'camouflage' trigger. _______ UPDATE (Jan 4, 7:10 p.m.): The recent high at 24.78 fulfilled the target for trading purposes, although it remains theoretically viable.  A 'dynamic' stop-loss would have taken you out of the trade at around 24.77. ________ UPDATE (Jan 6): March Silver is not likely to make a marginal new high that touches our longstanding target at 24.95 only to die there. Assuming buyers pop through it, we should expect Feb Gold to do the same when it reaches a corresponding target at 1907.  The C-D leg has provided only one opportunity so far to get long 'mechanically', adding to the evidence that there is still considerable buying power percolating beneath the surface. Here's the big picture.

There is more enthusiasm pushing silver than gold, although both are likely to hit their respective 'D' targets more or less simultaneously. (March Silver's lies at 24.95.) That makes a 'mechanical' buy at the red line (p=22.86) somewhat riskier, since the required stop-loss at 22.16 might tempt silver's handlers to drift their way down to it if gold's sluggish behavior continues. A scarier plunge to the green line (x=21.83) would paradoxically offer a better 'mechanical' buying opportunity, but we should plan on initiating the trade with a 'camouflage' trigger so that the implied entry risk, which would exceed $20,000 on four contracts, is not so terrifying. _______ UPDATE (Dec 23): The futures made a marginal new high last week that fell 42 cents short of my 24.94 target. It remains valid nonetheless and can be played via a 'mechanical' buy at the red line (22.86), stop 22.17.  Nudge me in the chat room for real-tie guidance that can help cut entry risk by 90% or more.

March Silver has risen with more self-assurance than gold recently and lies within easy distance of a 24.32 target that has kept us comfortably on the right side of the trend, even during the 6% selloff that began the week. The target is derived from an ABCD pattern sufficiently clear and compelling to offer a high-odds short. Regardless, bulls should keep their fingers crossed, since an easy move through the target, especially if accompanied by a close above it on the same day, would add to the evidence that September's low at 17.56 was the start of a bull market. Above 24.32, our next price objective would be 25.06 (weekly chart, A= 18.23 on 10/14).

The March contract remains on-track for a run-up to at least 24.32, the Hidden Pivot target shown in the chart. Although the rally triggered a conventional buy signal on November 23, it has been too steep to afford us a 'mechanical' entry opportunity on the hourly chart. This will always possible if we zoom down to charts of lesser degree when trades come into focus on the larger charts. This occurred on Friday with the dip to the red line. Getting aboard in this way takes a little work, but I am always willing to vet subscribers' timely ideas when I'm in the chat room. The D target here is capable of reversing the rally precisely and can therefore be shorted, provided you know how to hold the entry risk down to no more than 3-4 cents per contract.  ______ UPDATE (Dec 5, 4:27 p.m.): March Silver's still-nominally-profitable but feeble bounce from a 'voodoo' number today suggests it has lower to go.  If so, a hit at 21.67 would trigger a 'mechanical' buy, stop 20.78. Obviously, with $18,000 of theoretical entry risk on four contracts, this one's only for ace Pivoteers who have attended at least 3-4 Wednesday tutorial sessions.

The December contract exceeded my minimum expectation last week at 21.50, so I've selected a more ambitious rally pattern with a 22.40 target to keep us a step ahead of the herd if Silver continues to rise as expected. A pullback to the green line (x=21.05) would trigger a 'mechanical' buy, but the balky A-B leg argues against trying to get long with a conventional bid and a 20.59 stop-loss. Camouflage may be the ticket, so stay tuned to that chat room if you're interested. _______ UPDATE (Nov 28, 10:03 p.m.): The futures took a $1200 bounce from within a half-cent of the green line, enabling at least one subscriber to report a quick profit in the chat room.  Silver's subsequent relapse has muddied the immediate picture and left me with nothing exciting to recommend for today. My 'voodoo number' for a possible turn would be 20.98 -- worth risking no more than 2-3 cents on a stop. _______ UPDATE (Nov 30, 7:12 p.m.): A bullish pattern going back to early November would be superseded by a larger one if this rally decisively exceeds 22.73, basis the March contract, or closes above it for two consecutive days. The new target, a clear and compelling Hidden Pivot resistance, would be at 24.325, shown in this chart. 

Although I expect Silver to continue moving higher, I've displayed a mildly bearish reverse-pattern (see inset) because it promises to work well for augmenting long positions with risk under tight control. On Thursday, for instance, sellers corrected the December contract down to the red line (p=20.73), almost triggering an  enticing 'mechanical' buying opportunity. (It didn't trigger, however, because the downswing missed touching p=20.730 by a hair). Let's watch to see how the futures interact with this pattern, which could prove useful in any event. A decisive downside penetration of p early in the week could be warning of more slippage to p2=19.905, or even d=19.08. _______ UPDATE (Nov 21, 9:50 p.m.): Bottoming action at p was tricky, but there were several ways to have gotten aboard without much pain. As much as 13 cents was risked initially, but the bounce so far has delivered a profit of as much as 42 cents ($2100) per contract. Minimum price objective: 21.50. Please let me know if you hold a position based on my recommendation do I can determine whether to establish a tracking position.

December Silver struggled unsuccessfully all week to punch through a clear Hidden Pivot resistance at 21.905. However, the slight poke above it on Friday, along with the shallow pullback to end the week, suggests buyers are ready to take on an important 'external' peak a 22.80 recorded the first week of June. Just above it lies a 'voodoo' number where the futures would be an opportune short, albeit only for a tightly-stopped scalp-trade.

Friday's blitzkrieg rally capped a whole month of gingerly stair-stepping. Would you believe that all of it did not push the futures past a single 'external' peak on the daily chart, let alone generate an impulse leg? The good news is that it would require a further push of just 82 cents to create a quite promising one. The chart (see inset) clarifies this with a peak I've circled at 21.74 that was recorded at the end of June. It may not look like much, but it is as significant technically as most of the more obvious peaks on the chart. I've set an alert there, and bulls should take heart if it gets triggered this week (the earlier the better). _______ UPDATE (Nov 10, 8:33 p.m.): The futures topped almost exactly at the 21.90 target I posted in the chat room at 8:44 a.m., so they are due for a rest. However, the subsequent pullback has been shallow so far, implying bulls are still revved up. They will have their work cut out for them trying to make headway over the next few days, though, since the uptrend has entered a thick band of supply deposited last spring between 21.72 and 22.76 (corrected) . We'll be better able to judge the staying power of the rally once we've seen how it fares 'in the zone'.