SIU10

Here's Silver, trading exactly where it was in early January. That should temper our expectations for the moment, although it should be noted that an impulsive dip below 17.150 would not exactly be a sign of good health. More immediately, there remains the prospect of a test of trendline support that comes in today near 17.350. Alternatively, it would take an upthrust to at least 18.185 to stir up a mote of bullish enthusiasm.  That's a tick above a look-to-the-left peak that doesn't even exist until one zooms down to the 10-minute bars or less.

The September contract looked bound for a minimum 18.230 when the closing bell rang yesterday, having stalled just a tick above that Hidden Pivot's sibling midpoint, 18.105.  A push above the resistance would all but guarantee a follow-through to 18.230, but it will take at least 18.470 to revitalize the bull trend on the lesser charts. On the hourly, no less than 18.845 would be needed over the near term to send bears diving for cover. Alternatively, my worst-case number is 17.350, where a garden-variety trendline from the hourly chart comes in today.

The futures breached a midpoint support by two cents, implying more weakness to come, but the surprisingly sharp reversal that followed looked more like Silver wanted to fly. A recalcitrant Gold appeared to restrain the impulse, however, and the September contract ended the day in a holding pattern that left it unchanged since last Thursday. On balance, my bias is negative for the short-term, with jeopardy down to as low as 17.160 if the futures should close below 17.635.  Alternatively, a thrust today exceeding 17.935 would offer the first hint of incipient strength.

Friday's low at 17.635 was the precise midpoint of the bearish pattern shown in the chart, so if it's breached we should infer that more downside to its 'd' sibling, 17.160, is coming. Alternatively, any rally that would turn the hourly chart bullish right now is too much to expect, so let's lower the bar to 18.815 -- precisely where the ten-minute chart would generate a promising, bullish impulse leg.