SLW

We hold a round lot with a cost basis that has been reduced by partial profit-taking to 20.06.  Let's tie it to a very generous stop-loss based on an impulse leg that exceeds 20.33 to the downside. This is shown in the accompanying chart. My current rally target -- and expectation -- is 22.20, a Hidden Pivot. ______ UPDATE (12:12 p.m. EDT): This morning's gap-up opening has put SLW on track for a run-up to 23.95, the target of the pattern (240m) A=18.39 on 7/5; B=21.78 on 7/17. The fact that the low of the gap was above the pattern's 22.25 midpoint means the move to at least 23.95 is all but certain. _______ UPDATE (July 24, 1:27 p.m. EDT):  I am now recommending a stop-loss at 22.51. At that price, assuming it is hit today, a bearish impulse leg will become manifest on the hourly chart. _______ UPDATE: Subscribers who used the stop-loss as instructed would have come away with a gain of $245.

Subscribers were able to stake out a so-far profitable long position in this stock yesterday after a camo entry opportunity was spotted during yesterday's impromptu analysis session online.  The pattern we used is shown in the accompanying chart, and it was subtle enough to get us aboard even though we undoubtedly had plenty of bullish competition at that point. (The stock had opened on a huge gap and ratcheted higher for the rest of the day.) Profit-taking was advised along the way, and anyone who followed my directions would have been left with 25% of the original position and a cost basis of  20.06 for the remaining 25% of it. The intraday high occurred a penny above the 20.84 target we'd projected, but there were strong signs the rally would continue to at least 21.18, the target of the larger pattern shown, before pausing for breath. Whatever happens, we have a horse in the race and a pretty good cushion against corrective weakness.  Traders should stay tuned to the chat room if and when 21.18 is hit, since we'll need to implement an impulse leg-based stop-loss at that point. _______ UPDATE (July 17): Yesterday's robust price action implies SLW is bound for at least 22.29 if and when it gets past its sibling midpoint at 21.72.  Above 22.15, I'll recommend using an impulse-leg stop-loss based on the 30-minute chart. That means you should exit the position if SLW plummets through two prior lows, at least one of them 'external', without a visually obvious correction.  If you hold more than a single round lot, you should disgorge half at 22.24. If you'd like to play it more aggressively, consider shorting July or August near-the-money calls against stock 1:1. The goal would be to cover them, further lowering your cost basis, if

It's been quite a while since we fooled around with this stock, but I am featuring it today since it would become a fetching buy at the 16.74 Hidden Pivot target shown. That is my minimum downside objective for the near term, and if it is reached that would represent a further fall of nearly 13% from current levels.  The corrective abc pattern looks sufficiently compelling that we can attempt bottom-fishing without camouflage. Accordingly, I'll recommend buying four Aug 17 calls if and when the stock gets within 8-12 cents of the target. If this were to occur next week, I would guess that the calls would be trading for around 1.40, give or take a dime. You should monitor the bid/offer for the options as the stock approaches the target, since that will give you a precise idea of how much you should pay for them. We'll risk a theoretical $100 on the trade by stopping ourselves out if the options trade for 0.25 less than we've paid for them. _______ UPDATE (June 27, 3:38 a.m. EDT):  The 16.74 target flagged above still looks opportune, but to avoid missing a buying opportunity if it's not reached, I'll suggest looking for camouflage set-ups on the 15-second chart.  A key high at 17.86 recorded at 2:45:15 is the kind of 'external' peak I have in mind for this gambit. _______ UPDATE (July 2, 2:55 a.m. EDT):  The stock has reversed sharply off a 17.74 low that lay a dollar above my target. This is short-term bullish, although not yet entirely persuasive because Friday's high suspiciously failed to surpass a key 'external peak at 19.85 recorded on June 24.  In any event, camouflage traders should look for opportunities -- probably from the buy side -- on the 15-minute chart. _______ UPDATE (July

It's been a while since we looked in on Silver Wheaton, and it may be a while longer before we do so again, since the stock has been a tease for longer than most of us want to recall. Notice how its most recent head fake failed by a few crucial inches to surpass a distinctive peak recorded a couple of weeks earlier.  That's sufficient to imply that bulls are content to screw the pooch for yet a while longer. This state of lassitude is nothing that couldn't be remedied with a relatively modest rally (i.e., past peaks #1 and #2), but until that happens we'll resign ourselves to seeing each new rally as gratuitous.

It's been ages since we messed with this stock, but there could be opportunity if it falls just a bit further to the 28.32 target shown -- a Hidden Pivot midpoint. We can skip the camouflage and simply bid 28.36 for 400 shares, stop 28.19.  This play is speculative, since the stock looks like it will want to fall all the way to D=24.59 if it breaches the midpoint by more than a few cents.

The stock has been a tease for so long that I thought it might be time to think about jumping back in. Alas, the first promising camo opportunity sevened out yesterday, hinting that even lower depths will be plumbed before a bottom is in.  The big-picture target was 32.23 (shown in a daily chart inset: A= 40.97 on 11/9/12; B=34.78 on 11/16, C=38.42), but if you used the 3-minute pattern shown to get long via camouflage, your joy was short-lived. I am featuring this trade to demonstrate that first-chance entry signals work almost invariably when a stock is ready to turn.  The implication in this case is therefore that even lower prices are coming. _______ UPDATE (1:24 p.m. EST):  Speaking of SLW being a tease, the stock explosive 3% head-fake this morning, launched from the opening bar, has completely fizzled. SLW is currently trading 32.53, down 0.67 from the fleeting high.

It's time to write off the December 40-45 calls spreads that we legged into for free back in September.  They could have produced a profit of as much as $4000 if SLW had rallied even moderately since then; alas, even with perfect timing and a great trade, we were able to do no better than break even this time. I'd already pronounced our calls dead more than a month ago when the stock took a header to $35 as we were coming down the home stretch. It's tempting to write this stock off as a tease, but we'll continue to look for riskless buying opportunities as before, since sooner or later, it's going to have its day. One place we might look to get long is at 35.32, the midpoint support of the pattern shown.  While everyone and his mother will be testing the water just above the two obvious lows (see inset), we will have a far more precise spot in mind to look for the turn. As always, we'll try to hold entry risk down to literal pennies per share if we do the trade. ________ UPDATE (6:59 p.m. EST):  Mr Market may be powerless to negate Hidden Pivots, but he has a funny way of screwing with them when a good opportunity presents itself.  Yesterday, for instance, moments from the closing bell, he summoned the gumption to bump up against the 35.32 pivot noted above, and to fondle it in full view of all of us who were monitoring the support.  While I'm not inclined to play this particular game, initiating a trade as the NYSE clock strikes 1600 hours, some of you may have gone long based on the tout above.  If so and the trade survives, please don't hesitate to ask in the chat room

We hold eight December 40-45 call spreads for free -- and a good thing, too, since I'm at the point of averting my eyes lest this stock, with its by-now gratuitous feints above $40, annoy me any more than it already has. Yesterday's dirge pointed down to at least 38.72, but any lower could turn recent, important lows at 38.40, 37.39 and 36.33 magnetic. Despite all this, the weekly chart is struggling to make hay with an indisputably bullish impulse leg (A=36.33 on 9/28; B=40.91 on 10/5) that projects to 41.97 -- 67 cents above the recent high. Please note, however, that it would be quite bearish if a negative impulse is generated without that target having been reached. For that to occur, the stock would need to fall uncorrected past 'externals' at 37.39 and 36.33. _______ UPDATE (November 15, 9:55 p.m. EST): Yesterday's nasty slide was the death knell for our bull spread, which fortunately cost us nothing. Both of the 'externals' noted above were breached, leaving us hoping that whatever rally lies ahead will be easily shortable.  If we can't make money being long this stock, then we might as well go with the flow. ________ UPDATE (December 5, 9:36 p.m. EST): When it hit 35.84, the stock signaled more downside to as low as 31.20. It'll have a last chance to turn around from 34.29, the midpoint support; or from just beneath November 16's 34.78 low, where some stops are likely to get run. _______ UPDATE (12:25 p.m. EST):  The next day, the stock made its turn from -- surprise, surprise -- 34.79, embarking on a manic tear to 38.42 that with today's plunge is starting to look like just another bull trap. This stock has been such an annoying little piece of crap that perhaps the

We hold eight December 40-45 call spreads that were acquired for nothing but which could produce gains of as much as $4000 if SLW is trading $45 or higher come December  21.  Yesterday's surge, which created a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart (see inset), was the first encouragement we've had in weeks. If it bulls back in the manner shown, bulls who have been looking for a belated entry opportunity may get their chance.  _______ UPDATE (11:12 p.m. EDT): The rally looks likely to provide a free ride to at least 41.14, the Hidden Pivot target of the pattern shown. _______ UPDATE (November 5, 10:40 p.m.):  After peaking at 41.30, 16 cents above our target, the stock has relapsed to a so-far low of 38.40.  This is disappointing, although the tedious chop since late September's 36.33 low is still technically a consolidation. It would take an unbroken fall exceeding 36.33 to change that._______ UPDATE (November 12, 1:32 a.m. EST): On the daily chart, resistance looms in the form of two hidden Pivots that lie, respectively, at 41.97 (A=36.33 on 9/26; B=40.91 on 10/5); and at 42.13 (A=37.39 on 10/24; p=40.35).