SLW

The weekly chart shows Silver Wheaton to have done little more than screw the pooch during the past twelve months. Despite this, there were undoubtedly times when you and I got all het up over the stock's retrospectively gratuitous ups and downs, which mostly stayed within the range $20-$30. SLW is working on a bullish impulse leg at the moment, but it must be said that if the buyers had any guts, they'd have taken out the 27.25 peak recorded back in September. The fact that they did not suggests the stock is in no great hurry to blast off; and neither should we be in a hurry to acquire shares or options pronto.  Since the very big picture suggests the bullish consolidation of a stock capable of very powerful rallies, it is not inconceivable that we should try to lay in an inventory of way-out-of-the-money call options at some point. Just not now. We'll want to do so when the stock looks strong enough to allow us to spread those calls off so that we hold essentially riskless vertical or calendar spreads, as we have done so often in the past. Since we should always keep an open mind, we must acknowledge the possibility that SLW is imminently about to trash my outlook with a blast into outer space. You can prepare for this by monitoring the 15-minute chart, since a 'b c'-type pullback from above the 22.81 'external' peak made yesterday at 1:45 p.m. EDT would offer the sort of camouflage entry opportunity that we thrive on.  Please report any fills in the chat room so that I can establish a tracking position for your further guidance. _____ UPDATE (April 1, 10:22 p.m. ET):  The stock triggered a false entry signal 30 minutes into the session then flopped

If SLW is going to reverse last week's bearish onslaught, the 24.74 midpoint pivot shown (see inset) is a logical place for this to occur.  However, if this Hidden Pivot support fails, brace for more downside over the near term to at least 23.92.  Bulls could breathe a sigh of relieve if an upward reversal from 24.74 takes an uncorrected leap exceeding the 25.65 peak. That would create a bullish impulse leg, the first we've seen on the hourly since March 13. _______ UPDATE (11:22 a.m. EDT):  The stock is getting crushed today and now looks bound for a potentially tradable low at 22.94.  I'll suggest bottom-fishing via a 22.97 bid for 800 shares, stop 22.88. _______ UPDATE (March 26, 12:53 a.m. EDT): A so-far low at 23.20 recorded on Monday held, but the 22.94 target is still valid.  If the stock takes off without dipping to the target, you may need to zoom down to the 3-minute or less to find a tradable pattern on your own initiative.______ UPDATE (2:54 p.m.): Bears have crushed a 22.75 midpoint pivot, implying that SLW will now fall to 21.81 before it can get traction.  I'd suggested buying 400 shares at 22.78 in the chat room, but the 22.71 stop-loss was hit shortly thereafter, generating a nominal loss of perhaps $35. Please note that if 21.81 gives way, a further fall to as low as 21.32 would become likely. More immediately, a 22.50 midpoint pivot associated with D=21.81 could engender a bounce.  However, repeatedly and habitually bottom-fishing at each of these Hidden Pivots smacks of desperation. If you want to play a winning game, you should go short from just beneath one downside target to the next. _______ UPDATE (March 30, 11:43 p.m.): The stock has rallied sharply, up 5% in a day,

A buying opportunity down near 24.34 was just wishful thinking, and our flat-footedness was made worse because I completely overlooked the possibility of a bullish turn from 24.97. That's the Hidden Pivot midpoint pivot of the corrective pattern associated with the 24.34 target, and in retrospect it's completely logical that Silver Wheaton would have reversed without reaching it.  In practice this wouldn't have matter much, since we'd need to have been long at Tuesday's close to avoid getting shut out yesterday when the stock opened on a gap.  The good news is that the stock is still trading within the consolidation zone that has obtained since mid-February.  Assuming SLW doesn't break out of it in the early going today, we'll look for a 'camouflage' entry opportunity to get us aboard with relatively little theoretical risk.  To that end, I have provided some graphic guidance on the charts, highlighting some very subtle external peak for traders who raring to go at the opening bell. _______ UPDATE (1:47 p.m. EDT): Using the 3-minute chart, the best entry opportunity of the day came at 26.16, hit at 10:06 a.m. The relevant pattern was: A=25.85 at 9:39, B= 26.16 at 9:57, and C= 26.08 at 10:03. Some chat-roomers reported being long, though evidently not via the entry tactic suggested. Keep in mind that we're shooting for a 30.65 target. ______ UPDATE (March 18, 1:21 a.m. EDT): With SLW closing on a 25.84 correction target (see inset, a new chart), I'll recommend bidding 25.87 for 400 shares, stop 25.78. ________ UPDATE (March 20): The trade was stopped out quickly as SLW fell to a so-far correction low at 24.53.  It is somewhat bullish that the low did not quite reach the 24.36 target shown. That Hidden Pivot is the maximum downside that could have been

After pushing decisively past it, the stock appears  to be consolidating at the 24.94 midpoint pivot of a bullish pattern projecting to 30.65. That would represent a 23% rally from current levels, implying traders should position from the long side. You can do so most aggressively if using 'camouflage', and the best place to find it at the moment will be on the 10-minute chart, which contains several 'external' peaks that can be used for leverage. _______ UPDATE (7:48 p.m. EDT):  Some chat-roomers evidently took my bullishness on the stock as a go-ahead to buy call options. Keep in mind that I suggest using options for directional plays only if one is fairly confident the position will go into-the-black within perhaps 15-30 minutes. Practically speaking, this means buying puts or calls only at Hidden Pivot swing points.  Going out to May expiration is okay if you plan to calendar-spread calls you've bought, but for all intents and purposes, going out further in time with options is only stacking the deck against yourself. For all buyers of options at all times, time works against you, and the further out in time you go, the greater your odds of losing.  I will be tracking SLW closely in the days ahead, looking for an opportune spot to get long.  If you're interested, stay tuned to the chat room and to email notifications. _______ UPDATE (March 11, 8:36 p.m.): A Hidden Pivot support at 24.37 looks like opportunity. Accordingly, I'll recommend bidding 24.34 for 400 shares, stop 24.24.  You can increase your size to 1000 shares if you use camouflage, assuming theoretical entry risk can be held to no more than 4-6 cents per share.

Silver Wheaton has taken quite a leap since New Year's Eve, up ten percent in just four sessions. However, yesterday's attempt to extend the winning streak fell short of our requirement that a rally 'refresh' the bullish energy of the hourly chart with each new upthrust in order to stay strong. That would have required a push above the distinctive 'external' peak at 21.82 that I've highlighted (see inset). In the actual event, buyers quit at 21.73, nine cents shy of the threshold. My hunch is that this is a pause rather than the start of a serious relapse. In any event, if the stock should poke a few pennies above 21.82 and then pull back in b-c fashion, traders should look to enter on the next leg up. ______ UPDATE (January 12, 10:36 p.m. EST):  Friday's rally off the low of a three-day pullback yielded an entry signal at 20.85 on the daily chart, where A=19.67 on 12/31. This means that any ABC-based entry opportunity you can identify on the lesser charts is a 'go', especially if you can pare the entry risk (i.e, the differential between 'x' and 'C') to perhaps eight  cents or less per round lot on the lesser charts. The immediate price target is 22.39, a Hidden Pivot that should be considered an even-odds bet at worst, given that p=21.36 has already been exceeded by 5 cents (see inset, a new chart). _______ UPDATE (January 17, 10:25 a.m. EST): This morning's 9-cent overshoot of our ancient rally target at 22.39 is sufficiently huge that we can be faintly encouraged by it. On the other hand, notice that today's high has miserably failed -- at least so far -- to take on November's two 'external' peaks. Bottom line: a 22.71 print by Tuesday would do wonders

August's key low at 20.75 is likely to have turned magnetic by now, implying a test of support that bulls should not fear. A dip below it seems all but certain to generate a tradable, snap-back rally, since many patient, hopeful traders will get shaken loose on the initial breakdown.  In the  meantime, just in case the stock turns higher without the downtrend having run its course, we should monitor the 15-minute chart for signs of life. Right now, it would take a thrust exceeding 22.89 to signal a pulse.

Someone asked me in the chat room to take a look at this stock, and so I have. The best buying opportunity we've seen in a while occurred on the opening bar yesterday, which exceeded by 29 cents a Hidden Pivot target at 21.68 that had been six weeks in coming. Considering how long it took SLW to get there, the current bounce should run for at least 3-5 days even if the stock is destined for new lows.  Camouflageurs should approach any trade with a bullish bias, but I should note that even on the 3-minute chart, using the subtlest opportunities I could discern, the stock has been one tricky little s.o.b., generating second or third point 'C' lows after nearly every valid signal. ______ UPDATE (October 14, 12:28 a.m.): Friday's low came even closer to the target, overshooting it by 7 cents. Although it's tempting to say the low is in, the bounce from it, feeble as it is has been, is as yet unconvincing. If SLW relapses on Monday, breaching the low, it will put into play a 20.47 'D' pivot (60-min, A=24.05 on 10/8) as a minimum downside objective. _______ UPDATE (October 17, 11:03 a.m. EDT): This morning's short-squeeze is bullishly impulsive on the hourly chart, but it has yet to put in a b-c correction that we could use to get aboard. If the rally extends without pause above the 24.05 'external' peak recorded on October 8, bulls would have something to celebrate. For now, though, bullishness of a more speculative sort would be appropriate. _______ UPDATE (October 22, 9:36 p.m. EDT): Let's see how buyers handle the 24.72 Hidden Pivot target shown.  An easy move through it would leave bears on the ropes, probably for the remainder of the week. ______ UPDATE (October 28,

Bulls got sandbagged yesterday, trapped on an opening-bar short-squeeze that fell 40 cents shy of the 29.57 rally target we'd been using. Longs might have exited on a stop near 29.03 if they heeded the 1:3 risk reward ratio I always advise holding constant over the life of a trade. So what's next for the stock? My hunch is that it will be back with a vengeance -- loaded for bear, as it were -- but that it could take a while before bulls recover their nerve. Indeed, the wicked selloff from the 29.17 intraday high amounted to an 8% price drop in mere hours. It's tempting to speculate that it happened for no good reason, but clearly, too many traders had grown too bullish. Those of them who survived could take comfort in the fact that the selloff left a couple of 'external' lows on the hourly chart undamaged. That could change today with more downside, but until such time as that happens we should infer that this move is merely corrective rather than the beginning of a protracted period of pain.

Silver Wheaton's opening bar yesterday took out the midpoint resistance shown with plenty of room to spare, and the pullback that followed precisely used this erstwhile resistance as support. This implies a clear path to 29.57, the 'D' target of the pattern I've drawn (see inset). The number should evince tradable resistance, but if it gives way quickly -- say, within an hour or so of first being touched -- that would hold bullish implications for the days ahead. How bullish? If you zoom out to the daily chart, the next logical stop, a midpoint pivot at 29.67, is close enough that the two numbers should be considered as a single resistance zone. Once it has been decisively exceeded, a 'D' target at 33.13 would be in play.