Tesla Motors

My gut feeling is that Tesla shares have seen their highs for a long while. Usually I let the charts do the talking, but in this case I've jumped the gun to sketch out a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern as it might develop over the next 15-20 months (see inset).  This is just speculation, of course, but it's not farfetched to "see" a left shoulder and head already in place on the weekly chart.  Although the SEC is likely to rough up CEO Elon Musk for his ill-considered tweet about taking the company private, legal troubles will probably be the least of his problems. He has flatly asserted the company will be profitable from this point forward, but it's hard to take him seriously, since there are reportedly serious design flaws and manufacturing problems besetting Model 3. The Upside of Failure Tesla sales are down in Europe and likely to fall further as formidable competitors such as Jaguar, Mercedes Benz and BMW enter the market for cars powered by electric motors. Musk could pull a rabbit out of the hat with some startling development in battery storage, but that is not an odds-on bet either. It doesn't help that, from a financial perspective, the automaker has been skirting bankruptcy. If the head-and-shoulders pattern plays out as sketched, the stock is headed below $200, well beneath the recently revised price targets of some high-profile analysts.  Tesla fans shouldn't despair, however, since a collapse in the share price would force Musk to get his formidable mind back on the basics rather than on the stock's ups and downs. Somewhat removed from the limelight, he would have the breathing room to do what he had started out to do -- i.e., sell enough expensive cars to generate the cash needed to produce a true

TSLA, arguably the most headline-manipulated stock that ever was, has died $20 shy of the 407.86 rally target given here earlier despite a full-court press by the usual hypesters. Musk himself was one of them, starting the ball rolling with a sensational tweet earlier in the week about taking the company private at $420 a share. It was followed by a conveniently timed story about Saudi Arabia's sovereign-wealth fund taking a 5% stake in the company.  Overshadowing these factors, at least until Alzheimer's-plagued 'investors' forget about it in a few more days/hours, was actual news that the SEC was looking into whether Musk's tweets were strictly kosher. What are they going to do if not -- put him in jail? Any fine would be a fraction of what is returned to the usual suspects when the stock next rallies. Whatever happens, I'll be removing TSLA from the touts list for a while, since its engineered ups and downs have become an annoying distraction from the usual bizarreness of the stock market. ______ UPDATE (August 12, 5:08 p.m. EDT): There must have been a score of articles and think-pieces about Tesla out over the weekend. The gist of them was that it's time to stick a fork in the stock, it is done. It's not just the ridiculousness of Musk's claim that the company will be profitable from now on; it's the fact that he has strayed so far from his original goal of selling enough expensive cars to pay for the mass-production of cheaper ones. What drives corporate strategy these days, it would seem, is not 'vision,' but the ups and downs of Tesla shares.Why else would Musk throw a Hail Mary like last week's announcement that he had lenders lined up for a buyout, and that the company would

TSLA took a robust leap after the close on word that the company was not burning cash quite as quickly as had been assumed by razor-sharp analysts just minutes before the announcement. The stock's handlers can claim the distinction of being the sleaziest in the game, so adept are they at leveraging news stories planted and timed for maximum effect. In this respect, Tesla shares trade like those of a small pharmaceutical company that has everything riding on trials. Remember when we'd see news photos of Tesla sports coupes in flames by the side of the road?  The stock would dive, and the sleazeballs would scoop up shares at an instant 20% discount. Yesterday, in releasing earnings data, Musk apologized for dissing some analysts, all was forgiven, and the stock rocketed 12% in the blink of an eye. From a technical standpoint it looks bound for the 347.00 target shown, a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance. We'll want to short it when it gets there, since a precise stall seems likely. Stay tuned to the chat room for further guidance in real time. ________ UPDATE (August 2, 11:32 p.m.): Tesla's fitful rally, characterized by a series of ratcheting, marginally higher highs into day's end, tells us that shorts are caught in the ringer. Only one subscriber reported trying to short the stock, so I haven't established a tracking position. It will take more than the so-far $3 overshoot of the 347.00 pivot to put D=407.86 (see inset) in play. _______ UPDATE (August 5, 5:10 p.m.): Tesla Derangement Syndrome persisted until the final bell, costing shorts a reported $1.7 billion.  The Wall Street Journal reported they were still standing their ground -- as well they might, considering the brazenness of the PR scam that has squeeze the stock higher.  The Journal was

Based on a recommendation I put out in the chat room this morning, subscribers bought expiring 370 calls for as little as 0.60. I'll use 0.80 as the official price for a four-contract tracking position -- the highest price reported. Offer two of them to close for 1.40, day order. The stock performed poorly relative to the broad averages and the FAANGs, mainly because there were too many traders -- including us -- fishing for a bottom. Fortunately, we didn't get sandbagged on the opening like so many others when TSLA gapped up $24 and our calls traded as high as 8.90. Despite Monday's plunge, TSLA looks like it will need to do something nasty to  get bulls off its back. We'll stick with the calls anyway, since this stock is capable of leaping $25 on a good day.______ UPDATE (July 3, 9:23 p.m.): Odds are dim that our calls will revive. Time is the key variable. Unfortunately I neglected to factor in a July 4th holiday that will push the stock's inevitable recovery back by one crucial day. Because 'everyone' was too bullish on the stock yesterday, bottom-fishing it every step of the way down after it had been slammed hard, TSLA still needs a nasty washout before its handlers can drum up a short squeeze. It cannot happen till Thursday at the earliest, and by then no conceivable rally will be able to jump start 370-strike calls. They will trade, probably, for around 0.40 or 0.50 at the opening. You can dump them at will -- or hold onto them and pray for a a miracle. But even if the Dow is up 1000 points today, I doubt TSLA will budge. It looks primed to trade just as it did yesterday. Perversely, if the Dow were to fall

Tesla’s market value has exceeded Ford’s with this week’s blitzkrieg rally, but the thrust does not have much farther to go before it hits presumably firm resistance at the 316.37 Hidden Pivot shown. Long-term investors should consider doing covered writes if and when that number is reached, since it could mark the beginning of a correction lasting for at least a couple of weeks.  Since we never chisel our forecasts in stone, let this one allow for the possibility that the stock will blow past the target on first contact.  Were this to occur it would augur a continuation of the rally to 349.40, the ‘extension’ target of a lesser ABC pattern whose provenance dates back to the December low at 180. There is no way to trade this vehicle at the moment with risk under tight control, so we won’t attempt it. It is remarkable that so young a company, especially one facing myriad production and supply problems, could have come to exceed Ford in value so quickly. In fact, with just $6B more in share growth, Tesla will surpass GM as well. Someday we may look back on these milestones as having marked the apex of investor folly. For now, though, all signs still point higher. _______ UPDATE (Apr 12, 8:58 p.m.): The stock has fallen sharply after coming within less than $3 of our longstanding target at 316.37. It remains valid in theory, although as a practical matter anyone using the target for a bull trade should have exited via a 'dynamic trailing stop' when the stock fell 90 cents from its recent peak. The 349.40 target also remains viable, although odds of its being achieved are somewhat lower now that TSLA has failed to hit a lesser target on the first try. _______ UPDATE (Apr 19,

Tesla shares went bullishly nuts after the close when the company announced a small loss. Go figure. Sometimes we are fortunate not to possess insider information, since we’d probably do the wrong thing with it much of the time. Wall Street’s collective omniscience can usually be counted on to get it wrong, but how can we know what They are thinking in order to fade their bet? In our case, we put such concerns aside and used a 220.63 target sent out Tuesday night to get long pennies off the low of a $12 bear-trap selloff in the early going. The Street has no knowledge of our Hidden Pivot System, and that’s probably why it works so well. The Master of the Universe might get upset if they knew that it is Hidden Pivots, which sometimes coincide with Fibonacci levels, and not They who control the ups and downs of shares, even on the seemingly wildest days. TSLA rallied $23 today from the targeted low, but as is my practice, I’ll wait until I hear from at least two subscribers who took the trade before I establish a tracking position. ______ UPDATE (May 5, 8:56 p.m. ET): You can use the 206.45 target that I posted in the chat room as a minimum downside objective for now.  If it gives way, however, expect at least a little more slippage to 204.08.  Either number can be bottom-fished using 'camouflage,' provided you understand the technique. ______ UPDATE (May 9, 10:59 p.m.): The stock's devastating slide halted a millimeter from the 206.41 target shown and one micron from the original one given above. Now, a decisive breach of the support, or a two-day close below it, would imply more carnage down to at least 174.94. That would represent a 35% decline from April's

That should be it for Tesla, at least for a while. Notice that the spike high of last week's parabolic short-squeeze failed not only to reach the 270.68 Hidden Pivot target, but also to surpass the watershed high at 271.57 recorded back in September. Although it would have taken but another $2.24 of upside to get the job done, the shortfall, although small, tells us that buyers simply weren't up to it. That's not to say they won't try again, but my guess is that it will take at least a few weeks of consolidation, if not significantly longer, to muster the required gusto. That would correspond to a period of unwonted caution on Wall Street following the well-hyped introduction of Tesla's Model 3.  The $35,000 electric sedan, with a 215-mile range, has the potential to shake up the auto industry. But with the stock having nearly doubled since early February, the company will need a couple of quarters of very strong sales to justify the wild, distributive run-up in the price of its shares. _______ UPDATE (May 3, 1:12 a.m. ET): Tesla shares have been trending lower for nearly a month, so it's probably time for the stocks handlers to 'surprise' us with a strong rally. If so, the pattern shown can be used to get aboard. ______ UPDATE (May 4, 3:58 a.m.): To bottom-fish, try this pattern instead, on the 240-minute chart: a=257.38 (4/25); b=234.82 (5/2); c=243.19. A stop-loss as tight as you can abide could be used either at p2=226.27, or D=220.63 (see inset).

With all the hoopla leading up to Tesla's introduction yesterday of the mass-market Model 3, the stock has been conspicuously unable to push past any prior peaks on the weekly chart.  The rally from mid-February's $141 low to last week's $240 high amounted to a 71% run-up. However, bulls will need to do a little better, exceeding early January's 243.63 peak, to suggest the stock is back in bullish gear following a prolonged sideways scuddle that began more than two years ago.  Were the stock to break out, exceeding not only 243.63, but also last September's 271.57 peak, bulls would have a shot at D=316.37 by summer. ________ UPDATE (April 3, 9:54 p.m. ET): TSLA opened on a short-squeeze gap to 247.90, implying it is bound for at least 254.23 over the near term. On the 15-minute chart, that is the 'D' target of a pattern begun on March 10 at 200.67.  Traders had a chance on Friday to get long with a 'mechanical' bid at p=234.63, stop 228.09, for a shot at 254.23. ________ UPDATE (April 5, 2016): TSLA's flurry of quasi-excitement died $2 shy of the $254.23 target, but not before buyers had refreshed the bullish impulsiveness of the hourly chart by exceeding an 'external' peak at 249.84 recorded back in October. Use A=233.25 from April 1 to buy the stock 'counterintuitively' if a proper set-up evolves. ________ UPDATE (April 5, 11:14 p.m.):  The talented scumballs who manipulate this stock for a living goosed it into a 17-point spasm after trapping bears on the opening bar with a gap-down print at 240 (!) There was a report in the chat room from a subscriber who took the 'counterintuitive' trade recommended above and did well with it, but because he apparently was the only one to make hay, I

The stock's canny handlers have seized an opportunity to crush shorts with a vicious squeeze that has come almost precisely from a Hidden Pivot support at 212.12.  This demonstrates once again that the stock is the obedient if unwitting slave of Hidden Pivots. It also implies that the current move will hit 253.45 if it surpasses a lesser Hidden Pivot at 237.73.   If so, that could provide a 'mechanical' buying opportunity for those comfortable with the technique.  TSLA's surge followed a Q3 earnings report yesterday that noted widening losses and revenues that missed estimates. The talking heads said "investors" appear to have focused on the "positives," but that's just the usual clap-trap. Quite obviously, speculators outsmarted themselves by overdoing short positions ahead of earnings that they knew would be worse than estimates. Those estimates are for the rubes, of course -- numbers pulled out of thin air by analysts paid to provide portfolio managers with cover for buying, buying, buying till the end of time. _______ UPDATE (November 11, 10:35 p.m. ET): A $20 selloff  has altered the picture, and now TSLA would need to rally past 229.36 to catch fire. _______ UPDATE (April 6, 10:51 p.m. ET): DaBoyz have shorts firmly by the cahones, with a 273.40 short-squeeze target in sight. (30-minute, A=181.50 on 3/2 at 10:00 a.m.; B=239.88). Traders can buy a pullback to p2=258.81 'mechanically' with a 253.94 stop-loss.