Tesla’s market value has exceeded Ford’s with this week’s blitzkrieg rally, but the thrust does not have much farther to go before it hits presumably firm resistance at the 316.37 Hidden Pivot shown. Long-term investors should consider doing covered writes if and when that number is reached, since it could mark the beginning of a correction lasting for at least a couple of weeks. Since we never chisel our forecasts in stone, let this one allow for the possibility that the stock will blow past the target on first contact. Were this to occur it would augur a continuation of the rally to 349.40, the ‘extension’ target of a lesser ABC pattern whose provenance dates back to the December low at 180. There is no way to trade this vehicle at the moment with risk under tight control, so we won’t attempt it. It is remarkable that so young a company, especially one facing myriad production and supply problems, could have come to exceed Ford in value so quickly. In fact, with just $6B more in share growth, Tesla will surpass GM as well. Someday we may look back on these milestones as having marked the apex of investor folly. For now, though, all signs still point higher. _______ UPDATE (Apr 12, 8:58 p.m.): The stock has fallen sharply after coming within less than $3 of our longstanding target at 316.37. It remains valid in theory, although as a practical matter anyone using the target for a bull trade should have exited via a ‘dynamic trailing stop’ when the stock fell 90 cents from its recent peak. The 349.40 target also remains viable, although odds of its being achieved are somewhat lower now that TSLA has failed to hit a lesser target on the first try. _______ UPDATE (Apr 19, 11:25 p.m.): If TSLA is about to take another leap, I expect it to be limited by the 316.37 target shown in the chart. It is too clear and compelling a Hidden Pivot to NOT produce a short-able pullback within perhaps $1-$2. If you’re keen on doing the trade, I’d suggest dropping down to the 3-minute chart when TSLA gets within 0.15 of the target in order to find a ‘camouflage’ entry set-up for the expected trend reversal.
