E-Mini S&P (848.75)

I promoted a 766.50 target here yesterday, but let’s stop pussyfooting and think the unthinkable, which would mean 612.75. The target comes from the hourly chart, and it implies that a hellacious plunge much like the one that occurred between mid-September and mid-October could happen again. This would be very unusual, since extremely steep impulse legs usually require a lengthy consolidation/distribution before producing a follow-through leg. However, because this market seems well capable of extreme and even unprecedented behavior, I am giving more weight to the possibility of a 230-point collapse straightaway. I should therefore note that the midpoint support associated with 612.75 is 839.75, a Hidden Pivot that lies just 1.50 points beneath yesterday’s bottom. If it were to be breached on a closing basis for two consecutive days, I’d suggest preparing for a possible freefall to 612.75. That would be equivalent to an approximately 2000-point plunge in the Dow, and so some regulatory circuit breakers would probably arrest the fall at various points along the way.