The March Bond futures look like they may have one last thrust left in them, presumably to Hidden Pivot target above 144. A corresponding move in this vehicle — an “ulta-short” ETF — could be expected to bottom at 33.27. It’s impossible to predict how much the January 34 calls (TBTAH) will be selling for at that time, but we should be ready to buy them in any event, since that would effectively allow us to stake out a short position in the bonds. To determine a fair price for the calls, I’ll suggest using whatever bid is reflected by the market makers if and when TBT comes down to within 0.10 points of our 33.27 target. If you want to be alerted in real time when this opportunity materializes, keep your bulletin launcher switched on, since I plan to provide timely guidance intraday.
The futures face jeopardy over the near term to as low as 804.40. That’s a Hidden Pivot, and it was derived from a pattern that looks authoritative because of the way the A-B impulse leg was formed. Notice in the accompanying chart how point ‘B’ exceeded the very subtle but key low recorded three days earlier. The overshoot was by just a single tick, but that’s enough to suggest that the downtrend is likely to produce a follow-through C-D leg. There are two ways the bear could be waylaid, however: 1) by a rally from the 828.70 midpoint that exceeds 854.50; or 2) by a rally from no lower than 828.80 that surpasses 861.50.
At day’s end, the futures looked poised for a 30-point drop to a Hidden Pivot support at 827.25. They’ve yet to reach its sibling midpoint at 852.75, but if that number gets busted, the move down to 827.25 would become an odds-on bet. Night owls — including a growing contingent of traders from Oz — can try bottom-fishing at 852.75 with a stop-loss four ticks below. _______ UPDATE: The futures went no lower than 856.00, so we did nothing.
Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.
Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.
Take any dozen good reasons for being bearish right now and they still don’t equal the bullishness of the chart shown. The undeniably compelling rally objective is 13085, a 4.8% move from current levels, and one can only surmise that the dusting the 12158 midpoint received on the last pullback (12/28) all but clinched a finishing stroke to the higher number. Moreover, it implies that bears shouldn’t get their hopes too high even if, in the next few days, the Dow plummets 324 points to retest the midpoint support. As of now, that would signal not weakness, but a screaming opportunity to get long. Hard to believe, really, but that’s what the charts say.
Mall Mayhem!
by Rick Ackerman on December 24, 2008 8:56 am GMT
The newspaper headlines have been saying this was the slowest Christmas shopping season in recent memory, and so I was unprepared for the mayhem that greeted me at the local mall Tuesday afternoon. I waited until the last minute this year to do my shopping, since I not only had to take care of holiday gifts for Christmas and Chanukah, but also birthday presents for my wife, who was born on December 28. The parking lot was so full that it took me ten minutes to find a space, and the stores were busier than I’ve ever seen them, even at the height of last year’s holiday season.
The crowds were thickest in the Apple store, which was so densely packed – mostly with shoppers who looked like they were in their early twenties – that it was hard to move around. Checkout lines moved quickly, though, since many of the salespeople were equipped with Bluetooth scanners to handle customers paying with credit cards. I was amazed at how many different items the store sells besides computers, iPods and iPhones. I purchased a microphone for my son the guitar player, and a knapsack for my other son.
» Read the full article