Tuesday, March 10, 2009

An good primer on my proprietary Hidden Pivot Method and why it is such an effective forecasting tool.

Collected comments from one of the founding fathers on the subjects of money, politics, and banking. Well worth a read. Download the PDF.

With a strong thrust that was predicted here last week, the futures have easily exceeded 47.62, the highest target that can be derived from the hourly chart. They also refreshed the bullish trend by creating a new impulse leg in the process. The leg has not yet terminated, but if it were to stretch past

With a little luck, the Diamonds will swoon this week to a Hidden Pivot support shown in the chart, ____. If so, let's be ready with a bid for two

Monday's chat room buzz had it that a strong rally could erupt at any moment. Perhaps, but there's no use cluttering our mind with such ugly speculation unless the futures pop through the three peaks show in the chart

Why is it that the juiciest shorts are all but un-shortable? The shares of Goldman Sachs, for instance. We predicted here a while back that the stock would eventually trade below $30, a 67 percent plunge from its then price of around $90. We were so sure of this that we promised to don a grass skirt and dance the hula in Times Square in the middle of winter if we were wrong. We’re still sure of it: Goldman shares are headed for disaaster. So why not simply short the stock in size, forget about it, then come back in two years to collect the huge profit that would be sitting in our trading account? The answer lies in the chart below. If you consider it as a whole, it’s plain to see that Goldman, like so many other financial stocks, has been devastated by the bear market begun eighteen months ago. It has dropped 81 percent so far from high to low. But look at how the decline has played out. If you had had steel-trap nerves and the genius to short a thousand shares when the stock spiked to an all-time of $250 in October 2007, you’d undoubtedly have been giddy over the $50,000 profit you’d earned when GS subsequently fell to $200 over the next six trading days. But four days later, 80 percent of your gains would have been wiped out when Goldman shot up to $240. Leveraging the Death Dive The roller-coaster ride continued until last February, when the stock took its steepest plunge so far, a 33 percent drop between February 1 and March 17. To have caught this death dive, however, especially the wickedly rewarding first two days when GS fell from $209 to $189, you’d need to have survived impalement by the

I've reproduced April Gold's weekly chart as a reminder of why we shouldn't be too concerned about the selloff that has followed the most recent push above $1000. The thing to notice is that this impulse leg, which topped at $1007 on February 20,