March 2009

Let's see if a Hidden Pivot resistance at 112.31 can tame this psycho-ward escapee. Despite the violent price action, our position is showing a $90 paper profit at the moment and that could increase to as much as $1900 if

Okay, Monday's commentary was intended as a little tough love for goldbugs. But it doesn't negate the bullish fact that last Friday's spike exceeded a look-to-the-left peak at 964.00 from February 27, engendering a bullish impulse leg that might still bear "C-D fruit". To calculate the odds of this occurring, we can use a

Today's forecast isn't rocket science, since there are only two rally targets to engage our speculative interest. The first, a Hidden Pivot at 824.00, lies a mere 3.00 points above the apex of yesterday's joyride; the second

The cynical opportunism of this short squeeze is almost palpable, since even bulls could not possibly believe the all-clear signal is appropriate here.  Da Boyz surely know this, just as they know how very urgent it is that they make the absolute most of this presumably fleeting episode of feel-good hysteria.  If stocks continue higher as seems likely, keep in mind that the power of a bear rally is directly proportional to degree to which it is believed to be a fraud.

Our most recent price targets for Gold and the Mini-S&P were more ambitious than usual because we'd planned to be away from our desk for a couple of days on a family ski trip. Imagine our surprise when we came off the  slopes and discovered that the extravagant, cover-our-butt targets we'd computed for these two trading vehicles had actually been surpassed by day's end, albeit not by much. In the case of Gold, our worst-case downside target for the near term was 938.50 -- a $17.70 decline. In actuality, the June contract traded down to 936.00, hinting of further weakness to come. At least one subscriber, Phil D., evidently made hay with these numbers, and graciously wrote to tell us about it:  "I exited the full contract position today.  Actually, I rolled it over to June this morning but exited on the break below your midpoint number. An attempt to re-enter at the D point was stopped out...[but] even with the June losses subtracted, my net gain of over $6,000 is now locked in and I was spared most of the sharp sell-off.  Your analysis was the basis of my timing on both entry and exit."  Nice work, Phil. For the record, it is trading futures, not forecasting them, that is the hardest part of making a buck in this game.  Can we do it again? Well, past performance, as the fine print says,  is no guarantee of future success. Telling a Bluff from the Real Thing We don't know if any subscribers had similar success converting the S&P forecast to moolah. However, anyone watching stocks trade Sunday night could have seen that something was brewing. Here's the analysis that went out at the time, updating trading advice that had been disseminated to subscribers earlier in the evening, when the S&P mini was trading around 776.00:  "DaBoyz have applied a rather vicious

I'll be away from my desk Monday and Tuesday, although touts and commentary will be published as usual.  In today's trading recommendations are instructions for modifying the position in Goldman, since the stock looks like it could swoon. Ordinarily I would simply leave it alone, but the stock has been breathtakingly volatile lately, and so I would like to buy a little more downside protection until I am back in my office Wednesday.

The selloff into last week's final bell set up a presumably corrective downtrend that projects to 753.25. That's assuming its midpoint sibling,

Rick’s Picks Monday, March 23, 2009 “Phenomenally accurate forecasts” Why Hasn’t Gold Caught Fire? In forecasting gold's price trends, Rick's Picks has generally been careful not to let our long-term bullish bias color our observations from one week to the next. We think readers deserve straight talk, even when it has less than bullish implications for the precious-metals sector. Such as now. We are not so much negative on bullion as we are more cautious than usual. Specifically, we don't expect gold to leave the $1000 barrier behind any time soon -- meaning within the next three or four months; rather, we foresee a choppy correction over that time that could bring quotes down to $800 or even lower. There are no compelling Hidden Pivot targets to buttress this prediction, only a Fibonacci level at $811 that we would not count on too heavily for precise support. Why the dour outlook for the intermediate term? The reason is painfully obvious: With fiscal and monetary policy more inflationary than ever in the U.S. and around the world, gold should already be trading well above $1000; but it is not. We won't dwell for long on why, since there are many plausible reasons. Suffice it to say, deflation has decimated the investment resources that institutional players might now be deploying speculatively and/or defensively in gold. Yes, we too have read about all of the cash supposedly sitting on the sidelines. We don't believe it, not at all, nor should you. It seems entirely likely that much or most of it will turn out to have been, in a manner of speaking, Bernie Madoff money. For no one should doubt that the global financial system is every bit as fragile and ephemeral as Madoff's criminal empire. His financial edifice was a Ponzi scheme through design; ours was a Ponzi scheme that we perpetrated on ourselves -- a manifestation of greed and stupidity that swelled our faith in free lunch to an epochal flood tide. A Bulletproof Defense The resulting bust has brought on a true global crisis that has devastated financial markets and erased perhaps $80 trillion of asset values from investment portfolios. As a consequence, institutional investors have grown so fearful of a systemic crash that they have shifted allocations toward the only "sure thing" their feeble imaginations --and the Rules of the Game -- will allow: Treasury paper. Not stocks. Not real estate. Not derivatives. Not even gold, which has been buoyant but hardly frenzied. Gold may be a riskless investment according to some gurus well-known in hard-money circles; but in the world of pension funds, insurance companies, banks and other agents of investment orthodoxy, gold is still the province of lunatics, schemers and enemies of the American Way. Contrast this with the spectacle of white-shoed money managers climbing onto the Treasurys bandwagon. They have good reason to fear the day when they will be hauled in front of a tribunal to justify their investment decisions. Can you blame them for thinking U.S. Bonds will offer a bulletproof defense? Goldbugs should therefore be neither surprised nor disappointed by bullion's failure to catch fire. They should instead take heart from the fact that gold has performed quite well relative to all other classes of investable assets and is likely to continue to do so regardless of how things play out. Concerning the big picture, we can only imagine two possible scenarios. The more likely, in our view, is that deflation will deepen until all debts have been liquidated through bankruptcy. This is the only possible outcome if fiscal and monetary nostrums continue to dribble out a "mere" trillion dollars at a time. This is nickel-and-dime stuff compared to the asset deflation occurring throughout the world. But if the slow, deflationary death this approach produces proves too painful economically and politically, then hyperinflation will at some point be employed, even if it destroys creditors and savers for a generation in the process. Targets for Comex Gold In the meantime, our outlook for gold in all time frames will remain flexible, subject to subtle changes in the technical picture. Most immediately, we are looking for a decline Sunday night or Monday morning to 949.00, (basis Comex April) or to 938.50 if any lower. A penetration of the lower number, a Hidden Pivot, would increase our bearish bias for the near term. Alternatively, the short-term picture would brighten considerably if the futures are able to close above 984.80 for two consecutive days. (Want to learn more about the Hidden Pivot Method we use to identify these price targets? Click here to register for a free webinar demonstration Tuesday morning during market hours.) *** Rick's Picks publishes a daily trading newsletter for gold, stock, commodity, and mini-index traders 240 times per year. Information and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance should not be construed as an indicator of future results, so let the buyer beware. Rick's Picks does not provide investment advice to individuals, nor act as an investment advisor, nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions in issues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment them at any time. Investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor, and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rick's Picks reserves the right to use e-mail endorsements and/or profit claims from its subscribers for marketing purposes. All names will be kept anonymous and only subscribers' initials will be used unless express written permission has been granted to the contrary. All Contents © 2009, Rick Ackerman. All Rights Reserved. www.rickackerman.com

In forecasting gold's price trends, Rick's Picks has generally been careful not to let our long-term bullish bias color our observations from one week to the next.  We think readers deserve straight talk, even when it has less than bullish implications for the precious-metals sector.  Such as now.  We are not so much negative on bullion as we are more cautious than usual.  Specifically, we don't expect gold to leave the $1000 barrier behind any time soon -- meaning within the next three or four months; rather, we foresee a choppy correction over that time that could bring quotes down to $800 or even lower.  There are no compelling Hidden Pivot targets to buttress this prediction, only a Fibonacci level at $811 that we would not count on too heavily for precise support. Why the dour outlook for the intermediate term? The reason is painfully obvious: With fiscal and monetary policy more inflationary than ever in the U.S. and around the world, gold should already be trading well above $1000; but it is not. We won't dwell for long on why, since there are many plausible reasons. Suffice it to say, deflation has decimated the investment resources that institutional players might now be deploying speculatively and/or defensively in gold.  Yes, we too have read about all of the cash supposedly sitting on the sidelines. We don't believe it, not at all, nor should you.  It seems entirely likely that much or most of it will turn out to have been, in a manner of speaking, Bernie Madoff money.  For no one should doubt that the global financial system is every bit as fragile and ephemeral as Madoff's criminal empire.  His financial edifice was a Ponzi scheme through design; ours was a Ponzi scheme that we perpetrated on ourselves -- a manifestation of greed and stupidity that swelled our faith in free lunch to an epochal flood tide. A Bulletproof Defense The resulting bust has brought on a true global crisis that has devastated financial markets and erased perhaps $80 trillion of