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Only the little stuff looks tradable at the moment (i.e., 1o:30 p.m. EDT). Nor are we inclined to hazard a prediction about Wednesday’s action, although, to judge from the glum note that ended Tuesday’s session, the burden of proof will fall on bulls when stocks begin to trade this morning. Although there’s a Hidden Pivot support at 762.50 that we can use as a downside target if the selling picks up, it’s not sufficiently appealing to warrant bottom-fishing there. ______ UPDATE (2:36 p.m.): The futures traded no lower than 779.00 overnight, denying us a boarding pass via bottom-fishing. The subsequent short-squeeze has exceeded an 808.00 target by three ticks so far and should be presumed bound for at least 814.25 if it goes any higher.
A midpoint support at 907.60 that comes from the daily chart (A=1009.80) should be used as a minimum downside target for now, but if it’s decisively breached expect the downtrend to continue to at least 896.90. Alternatively, we should ask nothing less than a pop to 957.60 before we infer that the $80 thrust in mid-March is about to fulfill its 995.40 potential.
The breach of a midpoint support at 43.94 implies TBT is about to fall to at least 41.13, the support’s ‘D’ sibling. Let’s be ready to bottom-fish there with a bid for two June 43 calls (TBTFQ). The options should be selling for around 1.60, but I’d suggest using whatever bid is reflected by the market makers if and when this vehicle first touches 41.18 on the way down.
Let’s try to leverage the Comex Gold target by using an analogous support in this vehicle at 88.69. If GLD falls to that number, buy one June 91 call (GLDFM), stop 88.55. I estimate the calls will be trading for around 4.60, but you may be able to improve on the price by monitoring the bid/asked spread as GLD approaches the support. This order is good through Thursday.
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In the article linked below, Mises Institute’s Frank Shostak has exposed the toxic asset cleanup for the brazen fraud that it is. Either out of Krugman-like ignorance, or cynicism, or a combination of both, the plan’s authors have failed to distinguish between savings and credit as the source of new lending. Once again, Shostak has pointed out to his benighted colleagues that the Emperor is wearing no clothes.
Link: Would Cleansing Banks’ Balance Sheets Kick-start the US Economy?








Falling Home Prices Mock Inflationists
by Rick Ackerman on April 1, 2009 2:12 am GMT · 18 comments
Inflationists and their crackpot theories took another pounding yesterday on news that home prices had plummeted at a record pace –19 percent since last January. Residential real estate values have now fallen by 30 percent nationwide since peaking in 2006. In » Read the full article