Thursday, April 23, 2009

Silver Wheaton topped a list of precious-metal buy recommendations sent out a few days ago by George Carson, a New Zealand forecaster using a technical system that he says has produced no bad signals going back two years. The "buy" was generated on April 17, but so far SLW seems reluctant to oblige. Indeed, by my runes, the stock looks vulnerable over the near-term to a fall to ____, a Hidden Pivot that lies about nine percent below these levels. If this occurs, I'll recommend buying 200 shares, no stop.

Short-covering seems to be losing its urgency, shorts their nervousness, increasing the odds that any breakdown could be swift and punitive.  If the E-Mini S&P target for Thursday is borne out, the Dow would be down around 200 points.

We hold the Sep 84-May 84 calendar spread four times for 3.45. It is a conservative bullish play, but there is growing downside exposure that we should take steps to neutralize. Accordingly, I'll suggest bidding

At yesterday's close the futures looked poised for a thrust to at least ____, a Hidden Pivot, but they'll need to push just a tad higher, to _____, to revitalize the bull trend begun from 865 three days ago. That wouldn't negate an 845.20 target we've been using as a potentially important correction low, but it would alter the odds significantly in bulls' favor.

The bear rally has assumed the demeanor of Mr. Hyde at the moment, not so much unpredictable as too skittish to frame calmly in one's crosshairs. Even so, we should expect the death dive begun in the final hour of yesterday's session to reach _____ if it trashes that Hidden Pivot's midpoint sibling at 834.25 Wednesday night.

Years ago, we wrote here that white collar workers would one day grow jealous of the mailman. It would appear that that day has finally arrived. Why the envy? For one, the mailman enjoys the kind of job security that most workers in the private sector sacrificed years ago. For two, the mailman's healthcare package is comparable to what top executives receive.  Third, he can retire fifteen years earlier than you with benefits that make yours look stingy.  And four, there are all those paid holidays, sunshine and fresh air. Will envy of these perks turn to resentment if government employees continue to cruise through economic hard times with relatively few layoffs and pay cuts? It may be happening already. Consider the news from financially strapped California, where State Assembly leaders recently awarded pay raises totaling $551,000 to 136 staff members. This brazen affront to taxpayers follows Gov. Schwarzenegger's request that the Legislature cut its budget by 10 percent to match savings from other departments. The raises come just a month before Californians will be voting on six budget-related measures in a special election. Is the Assembly trying to commit political suicide? Our old chum Glenn Klotz, a staunch libertarian and inveterate blogger, notes the bipartisan nature of these insensitive and unseemly policy decisions in a recent commentary, Public vs. Private. Here's what he had to say about a trend that obviously cannot continue for long:  New Jersey Sinking Fast "An editorial in the Atlantic City Press today pointed to a huge and growing gap in New Jersey between public and private sector employment. It noted that the state's public employees on average make $11/hour more then their private-sector counterparts in overall compensation. Is this discrepancy sustainable in a supposedly capitalistic society? It appears that in New Jersey, the proverbial cart ( the public sector) has