ESM09 – E-Mini S&P (Last:827.25)

The two rally targets that I billboarded in today’s commentary should be taken with a grain of salt, since the 842.25 peak reached yesterday was more important than either of them. That suggests at least the possibility of a pullback in order to recharge the futures for their next short-squeeze rampage, assuming there is one.  I am telling you this in the interest of correcting a weakness that has occasionally overshadowed the accuracy of my short-term forecasts — namely, a tendency to extrapolate intermediate trends one target too far. Some of you may recall that I did this in March Gold when it topped at 1007. Although I had this target nailed from levels well below it, I assumed that the next target, 1025 (if memory serves), would be reached. Instead, the futures embarked on a nasty correction that was still in effect as of yesterday. My forecasts quickly got in gear with the subsequent selloff, but in retrospect I’d have preferred not to have been a day behind it.  Getting back to the S&Ps, the 852 rally target given in today’s commentary is indeed valid. However, the first hint of trouble would come on a retracement Thursday night that exceeds the 830.00 midpoint of the small pattern shown in the chart. Caveat emptor! _______ UPDATE: The 830.00 mipoint precisely contained selling overnight, and a contract bought at that low could have reaped the fruits of  the 14.50-point rally that followed. The actual high in pre-dawn trading was at 844.50 — precisely coincident with the target given in the chat room on Thursday. The rally gave way to a schizoid, 20-point dive that continues to this moment. The selloff was said to have been triggered by a woesome unemployment number that could not have surprised anyone.