Friday, May 1, 2009

Evidently not. While researching swine flu precautions for travelers, I came across the following at Consumer Reports Health.org: "The compliance labeling of the N95 and N100 disposable surgical masks are evaluation ratings for their ability to filter out 'particles' of 300 microns or greater in diameter. ALL of the influenza A viruses (N1H1, et al) are magnitudes smaller than the test standards particles. Additionally, these masks lose their efficacy after 4 hours of wear. They are effective during that time for filtering out 'large' droplets from individuals talking or sneezing, but their large filtration openings and generally loose fit will provide little if any protection in an enviroment of truly airborne viruses. I am concerned that the Pandemic could be made worse by people believing they’re protected, exposing themselves, then taking the viruses back to family members and close associates."

Ourt bird-flu correspondent Erich Simon has just forwarded the following -- his comments,  followed by those of Dr. Henry Niman, a well-known virologist: Niman says that it is a "predictable" chain of events from this point forward. From where I'm sitting... if such be the case, then it looks like someone just re-introduced the Spanish Flu into species human, down in Mexico, along with a mish mash of genetic red herring markers to obfuscate that reality. Spanish Flu was the greatest mortality event in absolute numbers of the human race... so the party is only just starting.    Of course the H1N1 blue print virus is the same. But what immediately red-flagged me was how the virus attacked the young and killed those with the best immune systems, just like HP H5. What I continue to remain skeptical on is that the 1918 flu originated in pigs ('dumbed down' supposedly, a longstanding fear surrounding H5, but which has not happened and in the face of all odds since the H5 virus is endemic in Asian swine populations...).    But the jury is out on that one. My conclusion is that the 1918 LP H1 became so deadly... approaching HP parameter... because it probably went directly from bird to man, airborne, and never got the opportunity to 'dumb down'. But there was indeed a swine assortment genome apparently in the Spanish Flu, just like with today's virus.    What I didn't know was that the 1918 flu appeared in the spring, like this virus, then went away and 'reassorted' and came back much, much more virulent in the fall and laid waste to 1 out of every 20 people, about half of those from secondary infections which we can treat today. Also, H1N1 is responding to Tamiflu at this time..., but will not in the future as the virus 'learns' its way around

I'm a little more cautious than usual today, since the "Goldman Indicator" looked like a coin-toss Thursday night. Goldman isn't the only stock that could easily pop another rally leg:  IBM and Apple also look pretty good, and I have therefore furnished targets for both.

A Hidden Pivot resistance at _____ is equivalent to the rally target I've identified in Apple, and the same caveats apply if you should decide to short this stock. If Big Blue gets by that number, look for a follow-through

After revisiting the 180-minute chart, I'm raising the 129.05 rally target to _____. You can short there conservatively with a stop-loss that suits your style, but keep in mind

We bought four ____ calls yesterday for 0.65 apiece. Sit with them for now, since we'll need a strong rally to allow us to short something against them for a sum that would

Let's lower the bar slightly for determining whether buyers may have seized control. We'll put it at _____, a tick above where Gold began to unravel on Monday. Otherwise, we should expect

On the hourly chart, the selloff from yesterday's high missed being impulsive by just two ticks, and today would have to start with a bearish lurch exceeding 856.50 to turn things geniuinely menacing. The ____ rally target from way back when is still our lodestar; however, it is not particularly

Although likely in my estimation, a rally to the spotlighted Hidden Pivot at _____ is not quite a done deal, especially if the stock gets pummeled today, widening the distance from yesterday's high. We would therefore