Tuesday, May 12, 2009

From just above a predicted low at 119^10, the futures have now rallied to within a whisker of our first important rally target, 121^28. Someone in the chat room reported booking a $400 profit on a long position taken near the lows, but it would have taken unnecessary guts to have

Will homes maintain their value best in expensive neighborhoods, where homeowners presumably are not under the gun to sell or even to make mortgage payments?  I've argued the opposite - that in percentage terms, high-end homes are likely to fall the hardest as the nation's real estate crash runs its course over the next 4-5 years. While it is true that the wealthy, most of whom own their homes outright, do not face jeopardy from mortgage lenders, they could find themselves on the ropes for other reasons, including the failure of a business or devastating investment losses. That could easily force the sale -- for starters -- of a vacation home, which would put price pressure on all of the other homes in the neighborhood. Keep in mind that prices are set at the margin and that $2 million homes in a high-end development all become $1.4 million homes overnight if just one of the homeowners is forced to sell in a hurry. There is an additional factor working against valuations of high-end residential properties, namely the relative lack of demand, especially in hard times, for custom homes priced above $1 million. Such properties are not in nearly the same demand as 2- and 3-bedroom bungalows, nor do they attract anywhere near the number of bargain hunters. In fact, the market for custom homes with $250,000  kitchens is far more limited than the market for basic homes geared to the broad middle class. 'Bargains' in New Mexico The following note from a subscriber reveals how badly the high end has been hit in, for one, New Mexico:  "My wife and I have been contemplating moving to Placitas, an upscale area between Albuquerque and Santa Fe. A Realtor I have been working with called me with two smoking deals: 1) A

The rally is coming off a low that exceeded an important midpoint support at 83.45, so our expectations are low. That said, I should note that my friend Bob Hoye is now bullish on the dollar and thinks that its strength in the weeks and months ahead will be a significant factor in the next, hellish phase of economic

The September 84-May 84 spread that we hold four times is an easy exit right now for around 4.20, which would yield a theoretical gain of $160. That would hardly be worth the effort, so I'll suggest waiting until you can come away with at least 4.40, for a profit of about $240

Natural Gas futures have been on quite a tear lately, but the rally will face its first challenge in the form of a Hidden Pivot resistance at _____(basis July). The pivot lies not far above current levels and should

Yesterday's selling lacked the kind of ferocity that can lighten the bears' heart, so we should start the day with modest expectations for any follow-through. As of 6:15 p.m., a minor downtrend pointed to ____, a Hidden Pivot support that you could bottom-fish with a stop-loss as tight at _____. Night owls can use a peak at 911.00 made

The June contract is taking its sweet time getting to a ____ target that should have been a piece of cake. Still, there are no troubling sign of weakness, and so we should continue to presume in favor of the bulls. If this tiresome consolidation eventually develops enough thrust to reach the _____ pivot, there would